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03.24.23- Why the Fed Keeps Getting It Wrong
The Fed assumes so many things about markets that are simply false, like that markets are always efficient, for example. They’re not. Under volatile conditions like these they gap up and down — they don’t move in rational, predictable increments like the “efficient-market hypothesis” supposes. Read More |
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03.23.23- The Fed Proposes A 4th Function Of Money: Means Of Social Control
Docket No. OP - 1670 Please consider Docket No. OP - 1670 on Interbank Settlement of Faster Payments. Read More |
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03.22.23- It Turns Out That Hundreds of Banks Are at Risk
The Washington Post wrote: “If banks were suddenly forced to liquidate their bond and loan portfolios, the losses would erase up to 91 percent of their combined capital cushion.” In other words, we were already right up against the edge. Read More |
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03.21.23- Prepare for governments to push CBDCs in the wake of the
(Article by Tom Parker republished from ReclaimTheNet.org) The heightened fear of bank runs and the growing calls for more government controls to prevent another Silicon Valley Bank-style event has created space for governments to swoop in and present CBDCs as the solution. Read More |
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03.20.23- Washington's Panicked Bailout Of Bank Deposits... Here's What Comes Next
Yet that’s what the entitled herd on Wall Street is loudly demanding. As usual, they want the stock indexes to start going back up after an extended drought and are using the purported “financial crisis” among smaller banks as the pretext. Read More |
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03.18.23- Silicon Valley Bank, Just Silicon Valley Bank is yet another example of corruption in the banking sector. I’ve read that SVB is the second largest banking failure in US history. A woke and ‘green’ bank, SVB was devoted to ‘DIE,’ or Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity. Maybe the latter in particular contributed to their collapse, but before it did go bust executives running the sorry show made sure they cashed out of their stock and rewarded all the top executives with generous bonuses. The taxpayers will pick up the rest of the tab via FDIC insurance… Read More |
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03.17.23- The Federal Reserve Is the Root Cause of the Banking Crisis
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03.16.23- The Looming Quadrillion Dollar Derivatives Tsunami
On Friday, March 10, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed and was taken over by federal regulators. SVB was the 16th largest bank in the country and its bankruptcy was the second largest in U.S. history, following Washington Mutual in 2008. Despite its size, SVB was not a “systemically important financial institution” as defined in the Dodd-Frank Act, which requires insolvent SIFIs to “bail in” the money of their creditors to recapitalize themselves. Read More |
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03.15.23- How The Fed Broke The Banks
The Federal Reserve is in the unenviable position of achieving its mandate by crashing the economy. It's not something it wants to do, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell meekly admitted in his exchange with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) last week. But it's something that happens as an unavoidable outcome of slowing down an economy littered with excess money and inflation. Broad money growth has been negative since late November, and interest rate expenses on everything from corporate borrowing to credit cards to the government's own debt have been rising fast. Read More |
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03.14.23- The Cover-up Begins
Presidents don’t write financial legislation. Financial legislation that the Federal Reserve and the SEC don’t approve doesn’t get passed. A third world immigrant-invader, Ro Khanna, who somehow represents in Congress Silicon Valley says: “Congress must come together to reverse the deregulation policies that were put in place under Trump.” Read More |
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03.13.23- We Are All Counterfeiters Now
—Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein Read More |
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03.11.23- Hard Landing Or Harder One? The Fed May Soon Need To Choose
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03.10.23- Central Bank Digital Currency Is the Endgame – Part 1
Central Bank Digital Currency is the most comprehensive, far-reaching, authoritarian social control mechanism ever devised. Its “interoperability” will enable the CBDCs issued by various national central banks to be networked to form one, centralised global CBDC surveillance and control system. Read More |
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03.09.23- Odds Are Rising That The Fed Will Trigger The Next Bust
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03.08.23- Dear Fed, 'Speak Loudly Because Your Stick Isn't That Big Anymore'
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In fact, it seems that it was a point of discussion at the European Central Bank’s meeting last month, though such concerns were considered premature. When interest rates go from being the most accommodative they have perhaps ever been to a regime where they need to curb the worst bout of inflation in decades, central banks have to make up for lost time. Read More |
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03.06.23- Interest rates: The silent killer
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03.04.23- Is the Golden Age Of 2% Inflation Over?
With that in mind, let’s look into the past to see what a longer period of inflation looks like. The best place to start in the U.S. is to take a brief look at an extraordinarily long period of inflation that took place from the 1970s to the early 1980s. We don’t have to examine every detail, which would take hours, but this summary will suffice: Read More |
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03.03.23- It's Now Impossible To Keep Politics Out Of Central Banks
Years ago, the start of quantitative easing caused a backlash over concerns that the central banks were prioritizing the asset-rich over the average Joe. It raised questions about mandates and the independence of the monetary authority, particularly in Europe where the ECB was the only actor to prevent a fragmentation of the Eurozone. And it even raised questions of ethics, after some of the FOMC members’ trading activitiescame to light. Read More |
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03.02.23- The Best Speech About Money You'll Ever Hear: An Evil System vs Honest Money |
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03.01.23- The Forces Upending The Global Economy Cannot Be Reversed
In focusing on geopolitics, we lose sight of the dependence of every economy on a functioning global economy of low-cost goods, services, materials, shipping, transport, capital, labor and financial instruments, all flowing freely across borders and around the world. Read More |
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02.28.23- My Origin Story, The Federal Reserve, and How We Got Here |
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02.27.23- Kamikaze Strategies
It’s a bad market strategy to stick to a fundamental view while ignoring a price trend the other way: it’s a kamikaze strategy when that fundamental view doesn’t capture reality. In 2021, inflation was not going to happen: then it rose sharply, but was called “transitory”. In 2022, inflation was not going to soar, nor rates rise: then it did, and rates rose. Read More |
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02.25.23- Powell's Gettysburg Moment, The USDollar's Waterloo, & Today's Open Madness
History Matters Despite the fact that universities even in the Land of Lincoln have had a say in cancelling Abraham Lincoln (good grief…) for apparently not being “woke” enough circa 1861 to be as wise as the neo-liberal faculties of 2023, I’d still make a case that history matters, and by this, I mean all its wonderful and ugly nuances (and lessons), whether they offend modern sensibilities or not. Read More |
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02.24.23- Fed Forced to Choose Between These Two Equally Scary Possibilities
In fairness, the Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell has been raising rates slowly after each meeting (even though they started later than they should’ve). The result of that approach has cooled inflation over the last six months, from 4.5 times over the Fed’s target 2% rate to just 3.2 times higher. Read More |
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02.23.23- Will 7% Mortgages Crush Housing?
But ours was not that kind of market. Central banks around the world had lost their collective minds and money was the cheapest it had ever been - far cheaper than it should or would be in a sane world. Offered 2.75% 30-year mortgages (read, shockingly low monthly payments), home buyers stampeded off the proverbial cliff en masse, paying any price, accepting any terms (no inspection, no problem!) to get houses in hot markets. Read More |
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02.22.23- How The Fed Messes With People's Lives (A Mortgage-Rate Perspective)
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02.21.23- Central Banks, Recession 'Landing' Risks, & Why China Is The Issue To Watch
The market is talking about a no-landing scenario – but should be watching what Central Banks are saying, and China’s position re Ukraine. The market remains vulnerable to recession and rising geopolitical tensions. They are very closely linked. Read More |
02.20.23- US Treasury 6-Month Yield Back Over 5% (Back To 2007 And The Financial Crisis As The Fed Withdraws Liquidity)
Well, there is one notable difference. The Fed’s balance sheet is still at $8.4 TRILLION whereas it was only $866 billion on August 8, 2007. Read More |
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02.18.23- Treasury Traders Know Fed Has Missed The Boat On A Bigger Move
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02.17.23- The Great Gold Rush: Central Banks in Frenzy
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02.16.23- Fed Raising Its Inflation Target and Other Shenanigans
But before we get into that, we should define our terms. What is the proper way to think of inflation and the Fed itself? Read More |
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02.15.23- "Higher Inflation. Higher Protectionism. Higher Global Tensions...
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02.14.23- Bond Market a Tad Antsy about Inflation Not Just Vanishing? One-Year Yield Nears 5%. Mortgage Rates Back at 6.5%
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02.13.23- Unidentified Flying Inflation
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02.11.23- The Final Chapter of Slavery Hinges on Widespread Implementation
- Agustín Carstens–General Manager, Bank for International Settlements Read More |
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02.10.23- The Yield Curve Would Invert By A Record 450bps If The Fed Hikes To 8%
Balloons blow, and capital won’t flow. ‘US Makes Case That Chinese Balloon was Part of a Spying Program’, says Bloomberg, and “The Chinese spy balloon shot down Saturday included western components with English-language writing on them.” ‘US Aims to Curtail Financial Ties With China’, says the New York Times, with the White House preparing rules to restrict US dollars from flowing there. An inverse CFIUS would stop US investment in areas related to technologies like AI; or with dual civilian-military uses, which is a longer list; or balloons. Read More |
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02.09.23- Two Bears...
I get quite a lot of direct and indirect feedback to the Global Daily. Some of it is positive, some of it is negative - and a lot of that is downright unpleasant, and some of it is ‘eclectic’ - like a detailed analysis of the collapse of the economy of Atlantis. However, yesterday was the first time I was told I was “on cocaine” for arguing higher rates can, in some circumstances, lead to higher inflation. (For more on which, see here.) Read More |
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02.08.23- Central Bank Gold Reserves Chart Second-Highest Increase Since 1950 In 2022
China officially started buying gold again in November and made another large purchase of 30 tons in December. That raised China’s total gold reserves to over 2,000 tons for the first time. Read More |
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02.07.23- Fed Loan Officers Paints Dire Picture: Loan Standards Approaching Record Tightness As Loan Demand Plummets
As Bloomberg's Vincent Cignarella observed, "tighter credit likely will drive slower spending, a reduction in risk and the potential for the Fed to pivot sooner rather than later to avoid or shorten a potential recession. That would be more good news for bond bulls." Read More |
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02.06.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Looming Emergence of Regional Reserve Currencies
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02.04.23- COVID Stimulus Spending Played 'Sizable Role' in Inflation
Stimulus spending played a "sizable role" in driving inflation to 40-year highs in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Read More |
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The Federal Reserve has shed $532 billion in assets since the peak in April, with total assets falling to $8.43 trillion, the lowest since September 2021, according to the weekly balance sheet released today. Compared to the balance sheet a month ago (released January 5), total assets dropped by $74 billion. Quantitative Tightening is starting to make a visible dent: Read More |
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02.02.23- Warning Shot Fired!
I warned my readers a few weeks ago about how the Federal Reserve, in cooperation with giant global banks, has launched a 12-week pilot project to test the message systems and payment processes on the new CBDC dollar. A pilot project is not research and development. That’s already done. The pilot means that what I call “Biden Bucks” are here, and the backers just want to test the plumbing before they roll the system out on the entire population. Read More |
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02.01.23- "Disneyland Is Over" For 'Mickey Mouse' Investors: The Fed Still Has 'The Mother Of All Bombs' To Drop
– Karl Rove Read More |
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01.31.23- The Federal Reserve Is
We’re seeing a Santa Claus rally in stock in January, especially in the speculative momentum stocks. We’ve also seen a rally in the bond market. Peter called it a dead cat bounce. Read More |
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01.30.23- Fed's words in focus as markets bet rate hikes will soon end
Less clear is whether they will continue to signal "ongoing increases" ahead for the policy rate as evidence mounts that inflation and the economy are both losing momentum. Read More |
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01.28.23- Weekend Rant:
I hear from a lot of people! Here are some of the scenarios they see playing out in the near term. They can’t all be right, but here’s a brief run-down of what many suggest is ahead of us. You may disagree with one or all points, but millions of people believe one of the following scenarios will play out. Read More |
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01.27.23- The Biggest Collapse in M2 Money Supply Since the Great Depression
M1 and M2 numbers are from the Fed, ODL is a derivative of M2, described below. Data for the above chart is from the Fed's H.6 Money Stock Report, released January 24. Read More |
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01.26.23- A Dollar Collapse Is Now in Motion – Saudi Arabia Signals the End of Petro Status
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01.25.23- Gold’s Breakout: It’s Not the Inflation
Gold has really taken off since late October, from below $1,630 to almost $1,930 today. That’s a major move. What’s going on? You might want to argue that it has to do with inflation. The trouble with that argument is that (official) inflation has been coming down for the past few months. Meanwhile, gold seemed to massively underperform with respect to the very serious inflation we saw earlier last year. Read More |
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01.24.23- What does this look like 10 years from now?
He was only in the fourth year of his reign, but Charles was already a very unpopular king. One of his worst habits was frequently abusing his power and taking unilateral executive actions– raising taxes or passing new regulations– which would ordinarily require the approval of parliament. Read More |
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01.23.23- CBDC and the Fed's Plan to Weaponize Money |
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01.21.23- The Secret Reason Governments Love Inflation
But when the U.S. government spends beyond its income, that doesn’t happen. It’s a mistake to think about government spending the way we think about our own household spending. The primary difference is a concept known by economists as modern monetary theory (MMT): Read More |
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01.20.23- The Modern State Cannot Exist without Fiat Money
With money on one side of every transaction, the number of relevant prices is reduced, the division of labor expands, and specialization in the stages of production becomes possible. The basic function of money, then, is to facilitate exchange. Contrary to this purpose, the substitution of national paper currencies for commodity money has made trade more difficult. Read More |
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01.19.23- Fed Announcement Has Unexpected Effect on Gold Demand
No Fed U-turn means gold will disappoint… right? Last week’s gold news was, for the most part, how the Federal Reserve didn’t U-turn. It’s sticking to its hawkish monetary-tightening policy with general expectations that it will continue to do so. The subsequent headlines are surprising. Read More |
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01.18.23- The Fed Is a Purely Political Institution, and It's Definitely Not a Bank.
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01.17.23- Powell Answering Questions
At a conference in Sweden, Powell made his case using an appeal to democracy: With independence comes the responsibility to provide the transparency that enables effective oversight by Congress, which, in turn, supports the Fed's democratic legitimacy. Read More |
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01.16.23- "Survive, Then Thrive": One River Digital On The Future Of Ethereum
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01.14.23- Weekend Rant: Will You Beat Uncle Sam’s Relentless Pursuit of Your Wealth?
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s population clock, the U.S. population is over 334 million. This, no doubt, is a lot of mouths to feed and people to clothe and shelter. But that’s not all. Read More |
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01.13.23- The Great Depression's Patsy
To protect fractional reserve banking and generate a buyer for its debt, the US government created the Federal Reserve System in 1913 and put it in charge of the money supply. From July 1921 to July 1929, the Federal Reserve inflated the money supply by 62 percent, resulting in the crash in late October. The US government, following an aggressive “do something” program for the first time in American history, intervened in numerous ways throughout the 1930s—first under Herbert Hoover, then more heavily under Franklin D. Roosevelt. Read More |
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01.12.23- Schiff: Is "Cooling" CPI Setting The Stage For More Inflation?
And a deeper look at the data reveals that a lot of inflationary pressure remains despite the optimistic headlines. Read More |
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01.11.23- What if the "Black Swan" of 2023 Is the Fed Succeeds?
What if the "Black Swan" of 2023 is the Federal Reserve succeeds? Two stipulations here: 1. "Black Swan" is in quotes because the common usage has widened to include events that don't match Nassim Taleb's original criteria / definition of black swan; the term now includes events considered unlikely or that are off the radar screens of both the media and the alt-media. Read More |
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01.10.23- Here's The Truth About
Now, if this chart showed the stock price of a company, would you want to invest in it? If it’s the price of a commodity, would you be a buyer? Read More |
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01.09.23- Has the Federal Reserve |
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01.07.23- How FedGov Destroyed
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01.06.23- Why the Threat of Deflation is Real
First, the definitions of inflation and deflation go beyond commonly accepted meanings. As Robert Prechter’s Last Chance to Conquer the Crash says: Inflation is an increase in the total amount of money and credit, and deflation is a decrease in the total amount of money and credit. … Read More |
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01.05.23- Central Banks Finally Own Up to the Crisis They Created
When is recession going to strike? When will the Fed reverse course on tightening? Read More |
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01.04.23- Is There A Way To Stop Inflation Without Crushing The Economy
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01.03.23- The Fed needs to jack rates up
This is nuts, we thought there was a crash? If you thought that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the Nasdaq’s subsequent 33 per cent puke in 2022 were enough to finally kill the tragicomically engorged late-stage private market tech bubble . . . Read More |
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01.02.23- Is QE returning by stealth?
It has been a bleak year for many investors. Global investors have lost $23tn of wealth in housing and financial assets so far in 2022, according to my estimates. That is equivalent to 22 per cent of global gross domestic product and uncomfortably exceeds the lesser $18tn of losses suffered in the 2008 financial crisis. Read More |
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