 |
09.23.23- Where are we in the debt cycle?
|
 |
09.22.23- 10 Red Flags Warn of
|
 |
09.21.23- Six Reasons Why Corporate Profits Will Fall 50%
|
 |
09.20.23- Will The Fed 'Cause' A Mini-Crash?
Let’s start with the Wednesday announcement of the higher-than-expected inflation numbers. Of course, most everyone assumed the market would drop on such news. Well, as Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise.” Read More |
 |
09.19.23- U.S. stocks are lower as investors await outcome of Fed's meeting
At 11:12 ET (15:12 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 248 points or 0.7%, while the S&P 500 was down 0.7% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.8%. Fed’s two-day meeting starts The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to start its latest meeting today, and it is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday. Read More |
 |
09.18.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Tucker Carlson Ep. 23
|
 |
09.16.23- The Permanent Crisis Economy
Fifteen years after the 2008 global financial and economic meltdown, many say that America has recovered well. Gross domestic product, through the first quarter of 2023, was 28 percent higher than just before the crisis, buoyed by personal consumption, which has soared 35 percent. As of May, the economy boasted 17.6 million more private-sector jobs than prior to its 2007 precrisis peak, a 15 percent gain. After accounting for inflation, average weekly earnings are up 9 percent, helping to break the stagnation in pay that lasted for decades before 2008. Read More |
 |
09.15.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Planet Earth Just One ‘False Flag’ Or ‘Accident’ Away From A Nightmare
|
 |
09.14.23- The World Financial System is Collapsing Faster, and Its Taking the
|
 |
09.13.23- The crashing office market will deepen the economic 'doom loop' for America's cities, economist says
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a real estate and finance professor at the Columbia School of Business, has sounded the alarm for months on large to mid-sized US cities. That's thanks to work-for-home trends, which have battered the commercial real estate market in hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and Denver. Read More |
 |
09.12.23- Mountains and Mountains of Debt
Defaults on loans with banks that are not in the top-100 for size have already risen to the highest record ever! Even if the Fed stops hiking interest rates (which is unlikely with recent hints that inflation may be back on the rise), the Fed still plans to continue quantitative tightening (QT) for a long time, just as it believed it could do in 2019 … and failed at spectacularly. Read More |
 |
09.11.23- Who Will Buy Baby Boomers’ McMansions?
|
 |
09.09.23- Welcome To The Real Estate Industry Apocalypse
|
 |
09.08.23- Say’s Law Says It All
|
 |
09.07.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: 77% of US youth unqualified for military service
|
 |
09.06.23- Where’s the Recession?
What did Powell say, and what are the implications for investors and global markets? Let’s review… Read More |
 |
09.05.23- Rising GDP + Rising Yields = A Major Sign Of "Uh-Oh"
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates a 5.9% growth in real GDP for Q3 2023. In nominal terms, we can even boast of an 8.9% surge. What fantastic news! Growth! Productivity! This must mean we can all breath a collective sigh of relief as Powell continues his valiant war against inflation as GDP rises, right? Read More |
 |
09.04.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Ron Paul for President!
|
 |
09.02.23- Bitcoin And The Coming Energy Conundrum
|
 |
09.01.23- Bidenomics Has Failed
Who is better off? (Lest we forget, “the economy” isn’t a citizen.) Are you better off than you were thirty months, two and a half years ago? Read More |
 |
08.31.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Ten OBVIOUS Lessons Every Intelligent Person Should Have Learned From COVID 1.0
|
 |
08.30.23- 8 Signs That We Are Right On The Verge Of A Major Credit Card Debt Crisis
|
 |
08.29.23- Nvidia’s Dog-Day Disaster
Luckily, NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) earnings gave investors something to talk about late last week. The semiconductor superstar was one of the only interesting mega-cap earnings announcements left on the Q2 docket. And since most of the chip stocks lost their first-half momentum weeks ago, the buy-and-hold crowd was hoping strong results would help encourage a decent bounce heading into fall trading. Read More |
 |
08.28.23- The AI 'Investment' SCAM
Yes, they have nice chips. I have one of their graphics cards in my desktop. Nice board. So was its predecessor, also theirs. That's not the point. Read More |
 |
08.28.23- The AI 'Investment' SCAM
Yes, they have nice chips. I have one of their graphics cards in my desktop. Nice board. So was its predecessor, also theirs. That's not the point. Read More |
 |
08.26.23- America’s Propped-Up Economy Is on Its Last Legs
The consumer spending spree that powered the economy since the pandemic panic is coming to an end. At the beginning of the pandemic panic, American households hunkered down, slashed spending and deposited their stimmie checks. Read More |
 |
08.25.23- The U.S. Tech-Dollar... Is Silicon Valley A Destructive Option or A Good Dollar Crutch?
The strength of the dollar comes from its users and holders, but their choice to use and hold it comes from their faith in its value. That faith has traditionally been driven by the warm feelings people get around the pillars of the dollar, such as: US politics, the US economy, the US people, the might of the US military to keep peace, its world reserve currency status with the international banking system and its petro-dollar status. Read More |
 |
08.24.23- How the US Economy Will Crack, and More on the BRICS Big Bust
|
 |
08.23.23- BRIC by BRIC
Today, Aug. 22, is a date I’ve been warning readers about for months. It’s the date when a great monetary shock is set to hit the global financial system. That’s because the BRICS nations are now meeting in South Africa, where they’ll take steps to create a new gold-backed currency as a dollar alternative. Read More |
 |
08.22.23- The Earthquake Starts Tomorrow
As I’ve been warning, this meeting is the most significant development in international finance in the last 50 years. It has the potential to displace the U.S. dollar as the leading payment currency and reserve currency from a standing start in just a few years. Read More |
 |
08.21.23- "I Have A Very Bad Feeling
What an interesting juncture we've reached. We're constantly assured all is well with what matters--the economy--as the all-powerful Federal Reserve has managed not just the hoped-for "soft landing" but a resurgence of growth: yowza, no recession. Read More |
 |
08.19.23- A Bumpy Ride
Draw back from the scene and understand that the sheer heaping-up of procedural legal bullshit in the various sham court cases against candidate Donald Trump is largely an attempt to confound, mystify, and preoccupy the public while the great scaffold of our national life collapses. The news — both legacy and alt — will be dominated day after day by analyses of every move and counter-move through endless thickets of courtroom minutiae while the US economy crashes and burns, residual wealth is confiscated, and the American social order turns into something like fiery goo. Read More |
 |
08.18.23- Brace Yourselves, Because What They Have Planned Is Going To Absolutely Devastate The U.S. Economy
|
 |
08.17.23- Watch Out – Argentina’s Leading Presidential Candidate Vows To Shut Down “Thieving” Central Bank
|
 |
08.16.23- BRICS vs the U.S. Dollar: An Inevitable Showdown?
|
 |
08.15.23- Fitch Warns Big Banks
|
 |
08.14.23- Why Rome Collapsed:
Identifying why the western Roman Empire collapsed in 476 AD has been a parlor game for at least two centuries, since Edward Gibbon published his monumental The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Gibbon concluded Christianity had a major role in weakening the Empire, a view few today share. Read More |
 |
08.12.23- Why the United States Lost Its AAA Credit Rating
Fitch Ratings said the downgrade of the U.S., which is now rated AA+, “reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and AAA-rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.” Read More |
 |
08.11.23- Beware the Great Unwind
|
 |
08.10.23- The Wile E. Coyote Economy
The Road Runner character would deceive his murderous pursuer — Wile E. Coyote — over a cliff edge. Yet this Coyote figure would continue his chase for incredible seconds… disobeying gravity’s iron laws… unaware of his precarious peril. At this point he’d glance groundward — and receive an updated intelligence report. Read More |
 |
08.09.23- The Greater Financial Crisis of 2024
That’s nothing to cheer about, though it’s not likely to have much impact on the markets in the short run. It’s more of a long-term problem. But it’s certainly another straw in the wind showing that the U.S. is on a non-sustainable fiscal course that can only end in default, hyperinflation or protracted depression-level growth. Read More |
 |
08.08.23- Normies Awake!
So-called Normies might be musing, this month of approved mental languor, whether the mighty efforts to suppress news of all kinds, about everything, have concealed the true tendings of our wayward country — leading them to wonder whether it is even possible to be a Normie in such an abnormal time and place. Read More |
 |
08.07.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The truth about Ukraine is beginning to leak out and Americans ought to be furious about the lies they’ve been told and are still being told
|
 |
08.05.23- UAW demands 46% pay hike in talks with Detroit Three automakers
The proposal would be the largest pay increase in recent memory. The proposal from the Detroit-based union that represents approximately 150,000 workers making Chevrolets, Fords, Jeeps and more calls for a 20% general wage increase upon ratification of a new contract "to offset severe impact of inflation" over the past few years, according to the write-up obtained by The Detroit News. Read More |
 |
08.04.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Stop It Already!
Thus moans reader Bill C. Bill’s lament arises in response to a recent reckoning. In that reckoning Mr. Rickards claimed Russia is winning the Ukrainian war. Read More |
 |
08.03.23- This Is Why U.S. Economic Activity Seems So “Slow” This Summer
|
 |
08.02.23- How Far Will Commercial Real Estate Values Have to Drop to Start Making Sense?
Stick real estate in the time-out corner, and 2023 is looking far better than the experts prophesied six months ago*. The S&P 500 is up 16 percent, layoffs are dropping, and economic growth has been so strong—and inflation so stubborn—that Fed watchers are predicting two more rounds of rate hikes. Now, the ballyhooed recession may slowly wash out like a false trail. Read More |
 |
08.01.23- Investors Think They’re Bulletproof
Remember when we discussed the possibility that the red-hot tech leaders were finally running out of gas? Well, we just witnessed a dramatic mid-air refueling on the heels of last week’s tame Fed meeting, positive earnings reactions, and strong economic data. Just when it looked as if the highest-flying names would finally take a break, frantic buyers stepped in to blast these stocks back into the stratosphere. Read More |
 |
07.31.23- Trucking Giant Yellow
Separate internal documents showed the procedures for closing the facilities as well as “talking points” to be used when informing union employees not to show up for their shifts. The documents indicated the company plans to issue a public statement Monday updating “the state of the company and the operation.” Read More |
 |
Interview with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
|
 |
07.28.23- Stocks: Undervalued or Overvalued?
Rather, a relative handful of technology stocks have been up and away this year. The major indexes are hitched to these wagon-pullers… and that is largely why these indexes have excelled this year. Read More |
 |
07.27.23- Bud Light To Lay Off Hundreds Of Employees In Wake Of Disastrous Pro-Trans Marketing
|
 |
07.26.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: RFK Jr. Maintains Highest Favorability Rating Among Presidential Candidates
Mr. Kennedy has a net favorable rating of 47 percent and a net unfavorable mark of 26 percent according to the survey, which was released on July 23 and conducted from July 19 to July 20 among 2,068 registered voters. Read More |
 |
07.25.23- 3 Big Questions for a Roaring Market
We packed the van for an extended weekend to visit family before summer slips away for good. In just a few short weeks, the kids will be back in school, while the financial pundits will start shouting about end-of-year S&P targets. We should enjoy the quiet calm while we still can. Read More |
 |
07.24.23- Yellow loses attempt to stop strike
|
 |
07.22.23- It's Mourning In America
The birth of financialization in the early 1980s was morning in America because finance-- the collateralization of previously low-risk assets and the resulting explosion of credit and leverage--gooses demand and asset valuations.Read More |
 |
07.21.23- ESG Is Dying Its Inevitable Death
ESG refers to the Environmental, Social, and Governance risk theoretically embedded in a business. However, while ESG investing is about taking these risks into account in investment decisions, these are all the things NOT on a company’s balance sheet or earnings statements. Such is the inherent problem. Read More |
 |
07.20.23- Is the Gold Standard Coming Back?
The Russian government recently stated: “The BRICS countries are planning to introduce a new trading currency, which will be backed by gold.” Read More |
 |
07.19.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Mexico files complaint over Texas’ floating barriers on the Rio Grande
Foreign Relations Secretary Alicia Bárcena said Mexico will send an inspection team to the Rio Grande to see whether any of the barrier extends into Mexico’s side of the border river. Read More |
 |
07.18.23- Globalists Suggest ‘Finance Shock’ And Climate Controls To Launch Their Great Reset
|
 |
07.17.23- Code Red
|
 |
07.15.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: These Are The World's Biggest
Last year, Statista's Anna Fleck reports, Qatar's imports of weapons accounted for 10.4 percent of all global imports, even outpacing India (8.9 percent) and Ukraine (8.3 percent), which has been regularly supported with arms deliveries by an international alliance since the start of the Russian invasion last year. Read More |
 |
07.14.23- Why Is the Stock Market So Strong?
Across that same frame it has been chewing into its balance sheet. Meantime, the bond market is putting out the loudest recession warnings since 1982. Read More |
 |
07.13.23- The Mainstream Media Is Not Telling You The Truth About Inflation
|
 |
07.12.23- Without Inflation, the Status Quo Collapses; With Hot Inflation, It Also Collapses
Many others have explained why inflation is part-and-parcel of the status quo.In the simplest terms, where's why inflation is essential:
|
 |
07.11.23- I Wasn’t Wrong About Oil
The Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services Sector SPDR (XLC) have gained more than 36% year-to-date. Individual 2023 performances are even more impressive. NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) has rocketed 190%. Meta Platforms Inc. (META) has risen 140%. Tesla Inc. (TSLA) — a consumer discretionary name that acts like a tech stock — is up more than 120%. Read More |
 |
07.08.23- All Dreams End: The Collapse of Keynesian Economics
Unbeknownst to economists, the Keynesian bedrock of modern economics--using financial repression and government spending funded by debt to manage the business cycle of growth and recession--is an artifact of a century of expansive cheap energy and virtuous demographics. Read More |
 |
07.07.23- Who Wins and Who Loses in a Deep Global Recession?
Does anyone benefit from a deep, prolonged global recession? Perhaps not in absolute terms, but in relative terms we can say some will suffer less than others. We can also say that some will strengthen their relative positions vis a vis competitors and others will lose ground / weaken, with potentially fatal consequences if the recession leads to systemic instability, i.e. phase change or tipping point. Read More |
 |
07.06.23- Office Mortgage Delinquency Rate Has Biggest Six-Month Spike Ever.
|
 |
07.05.23- Beware a Chinese ‘dollar avalanche’
Brad Setser’s paper(opens a new window) on how China has stashed away almost $3tn worth of unofficial currency reserves in local commercial banks and other parastatal entities has naturally generated a lot of attention. After all, these “shadow reserves(opens a new window)” are larger than the formal reserves of Japan, the world’s second-largest reserve holder according to IMF data. It’s almost three times larger than the assets of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. Read More |
 |
07.04.23- Happy Insurrection Day!
No. I don’t mean the fake Jan. 6, 2021, “insurrection.” I’m talking about the bonafide insurrection staged by American colonists against the British government. We call July 4 “Independence Day.” But the British called it an act of rebellion. Read More |
 |
07.03.23- 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry predicts a consumer recession — and warns companies face more earnings pain
|
 |
07.01.23- A Steady Controlled Demolition
|
 |
06.30.23- The Only Man Worth a Darn
Yet we focus — indirectly — upon them all. That is because today we distinguish between individual man… and collective man. For they are not the same thing. Read More |
 |
06.29.23- The Coming Crisis
|
 |
Ford Motor F 1.01%increase; green up pointing triangle plans to lay off at least 1,000 salaried employees and contract workers in North America, people familiar with the matter said, the automaker’s latest effort to defray the heavy cost of investing in electric cars. Read More |
 |
06.27.23- US Slips Into a Recession Based on Biden Criteria
Last year, the US economy slipped into a technical recession. But the White House was quick to alter the long-standing definition – back-to-back quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth – garnering support from members of the mainstream press, charged with telling the public, “We have always been at war with Eastasia.” With the latest economic data coming in, it turns out that the current administration’s strategy might backfire on President Joe Biden and lend credence to those who think the US is already in a recession. Read More |
 |
06.26.23- The Familiar Death-Dance: Investors Are 'Out To Lunch' As Macro Cracks Widen
|
 |
06.24.23- Fortress America—The Only Alternative To Fiscal Ruin
For that matter, by this date in 2033 the public debt is guaranteed to be above $55 trillion. The $1.5 trillion of alleged “cuts” in the McCarthy-Biden debt bill were phony as a $2 bill and won’t make a damn bit of difference to the $25 trillion of new public debt that is baked into the budgetary cake over the next decade. Read More |
 |
06.23.23- Distressed Commercial Real Estate Properties Top $64 Billion As "Full-Blown Trouble" Ahead
The report, which Bloomberg first reported, shows the number of distressed assets increased by 10% in the first quarter to nearly $64 billion. The report notes distressed CRE assets could balloon to as much as $155 billion. Read More |
 |
06.22.23- Push for Global Taxation…
What’s your take on this push for global taxation? Read More |
 |
06.21.23- The Biggest Monetary Shock in 52 Years
This will be the biggest upheaval in international finance since 1971. It’s taking direct aim at the dollar. Quite simply, the world is unprepared for this geopolitical shock wave. Read More |
 |
|
 |
06.19.23- Bank Losses To Spook Depositors
|
 |
06.17.23- Voters Hate CBDCs. Why Do Governments Keep Pushing Them?
A CBDC is a government-run crypto-token that replaces the national currency with a tracking ledger—a list of who owns what—that lets government surveil, control, and mandate every dollar you spend. Read More |
 |
06.16.23- What Exactly Happened Today?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 428-point jubilation. The S&P 500 posted a 53-point thrill. The Nasdaq Composite, meantime, leapt 156 points today. This, one day following the Federal Reserve’s sledgehammered hints that two additional rate increases are in prospect this year. Read More |
 |
06.15.23- US Economy – Surprisingly Resilient or Potemkin Village?
|
 |
06.14.23- The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami Just Shifted Into Another Gear
|
 |
06.13.23- Looking Forward
|
 |
06.12.23- We’re Not Finished
If you’re wondering why our country is lost in lunatic raptures of lawless Lawfare and futile MAGAry, it’s because our economy has already collapsed, and our culture and politics with it downstream have also collapsed into spectacular degeneracy. It has already happened. Maybe you don’t know it. Read More |
 |
06.10.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Capitalism, Socialism and ESG
BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, is pushing ESG as part of a marketing pitch to millennials, who put “improving society” ahead of “generating profits.”1 Much of the buy-side pressure for ESG comes from state and municipal pension funds playing politics with taxpayers’ and pensioners’ money, many of which are in poor financial shape. Read More |
 |
06.09.23- The Great Reset Is Almost Here –
Furthermore, government overtly suppresses and micromanages all forms of production. Small businesses are a thing of the past, and only a select group of major corporations working directly with government are allowed to operate. Read More |
 |
06.08.23- The End of Easy Money: Bankruptcy Filings Pile Up at Fastest Rate since 2010
It’s turning into a banner year for corporate bankruptcy filings, after years of Easy Money that caused all kinds of excesses, fueled by yield-chasing investors, in an environment where the Fed had repressed yields with all its might. Those yield-chasing investors kept even the most over-indebted zombies supplied with ever-more fresh money. But that era has ended. Interest rates are much higher, and investors are getting a little more prudent, and Easy Money is gone. Read More |
 |
06.07.23- The Coming Shock to the Global Monetary System
It involves the rollout of a major new currency that could weaken the role of the dollar in global payments and ultimately displace the U.S. dollar as the leading payment currency and reserve currency. It could happen in just a few years. Read More |
 |
06.06.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: What Happens When
What happens with the competent retire, burn out or opt out? It's a question few bother to ask because the base assumption is that there is an essentially limitless pool of competent people who can be tapped or trained to replace those who retire, burn out or opt out, i.e. quit in favor of a lifestyle that doesn't require much in the way of income or stress. Read More |
 |
06.05.23- The Treasury Storm of the Century
|
 |
06.03.23- Weekend Rant: America Speeds Headlong Into an Unimaginable Fiscal Disaster
What everyone should find troubling is the spending that has grown so large it accounts for much more than the receipts the U.S. takes in each year. And if it grows too much larger, it will eventually make it near impossible to even service the interest on the debt. Read More |
 |
06.02.23- Deposits at Capitol One bank frozen by NYC’s banking commission
We needn’t worry anymore, Democrats said, because brand-new unaccountable agencies like the Consumer Finance Protection Board were going to make sure that depositors were safe, their assets protected, and the bad guys who run shoddy banks dealt with. Read More |
 |
06.01.23- With 75% of Americans Reporting This, Recession Is Undeniable
Unfortunately, things haven’t improved much since then. We just discussed the state of consumer debt, and it isn’t very good at all, reaching a record $17 trillion. Read More |
 |
05.31.23- The Great Student Loan Nonpayment Boondoggle Is Over And Household Spending Is About To Collapse
|
 |
05.30.23- New Data: Huge Plunge in Manufacturing, Recession Is Here!
|
 |
05.29.23- State Farm Halts Home Insurance Sales In California
State Farm attributed the decision to three factors: "historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market." Reinsurance is a method of transferring some of an insurer's risk to other insurers. Read More |
 |
05.27.23- Today’s Housing Market Looks Even Worse than 2008
Why housing? Well, here’s what The Economist has to sayabout it: The importance of American housing resides not so much in its absolute size, big though it is at about $45 [trillion] in total value. Rather, it serves as a bellwether of the economy’s performance amid rising interest rates. Has the Federal Reserve lifted rates by enough to calm inflation without crushing growth? Has it gone too far? Or, perhaps, not far enough? As one of the earliest and largest sectors to react to changes, the property market offers some answers. Read More |
 |
05.26.23- Wages Going Up for Good: Catch-Up and Blowback
One of the most durable expectations in the financial sphere is that inflation will drop sharply in a recession and the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates back to near-zero. There is a good reason to doubt this: rising wages. Yes, we all hear about the millions of human workers who will shortly be replaced by AI–wonderful for corporate profits!–but few pundits bother looking at long cycles in interest rates and inflation, and even fewer pay any attention to the absurdly extreme asymmetry of labor and capital. Read More |
 |
Debt Ceiling Deal or No Deal:
|
 |
05.24.23- ‘Real Assets’ are cheaper than they’ve ever been in modern history
We chose Panama for a specific reason: the first conference I ever held back in 2011 was in Panama. Read More |
 |
05.23.23- Red Alert!
Likewise, wildfires are a threat, but they’re usually confined to periods when dry conditions and high winds combine to make forests predictably combustible. Read More |
 |
05.22.23- What Should Be Done About the Debt Ceiling Argument Between the Democrats and Republicans?
I think that what’s most likely to happen is that the two sides won’t allow a default (or if they do, it won’t be for long) and they won’t deal with the big issues in a substantive way. Rather they will tweak things in ways that won’t matter much and that will look better than they really are (e.g., they will say that they will cut the deficit in future years, which they won’t when the time comes). I wouldn’t do that. Read More |
 |
05.20.23- New Debt Report Proves We’re in Uncharted Territory
When the pandemic started, that spending slowed, thanks in part to the panicked response by government officials who shut down businesses for weeks or months in 2020. (Remember “Two weeks to stop the spread”?) Read More |
 |
05.19.23- Debt Ceiling Standoff Threatens More Than Social Security
The cost of Social Security programs have exceeded its income since 2021. So they’re underfunded (and falling behind). Without changes, the trust fund reserve will be depleted in the future. According to the Trustees, that future draws nearer every day: Read More |
 |
05.18.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How Government Wrecked the Gas Can
The gas gauge broke. There was no smartphone app to tell me how much was left, so I ran out. I had to call the local gas station to give me enough to get on my way. The gruff but lovable attendant arrived in his truck and started to pour gas in my car’s tank. And pour. And pour. “Hmmm, I just hate how slow these gas cans are these days,” he grumbled. “There’s no vent on them.” Read More |
 |
05.17.23- Florida Is First U.S. State To Ban Central Bank Digital Currency
Gov. DeSantis said in a press release that the bill is meant to prevent “government overreach” from controlling one’s personal finances and “to protect consumers against globalist efforts to adopt a worldwide digital currency.” SB 7054, which passed in the legislature with strong bipartisan support, revised the definition of money in Florida’s Uniform Commercial Code, the state’s governing laws for commercial transactions, to exclude any CBDC. Read More |
 |
05.16.23- JPMorgan Opens War Room
Right now, the Treasury is at the debt ceiling. That means it has no legal authority to issue net new debt. It can issue new debt if old debt is maturing. That keeps the total debt unchanged; you’re just rolling over maturing debt into new debt without increasing the total debt. Read More |
 |
05.15.23- Babson’s Warning
The above words could easily have been stated by me or another of the (very) few others who currently predict the coming of crashes in the markets. Read More |
 |
05.13.23- 5 reasons food will get scarcer and more expensive
In April, the United Nations food agency’s world price index rose for the first time in a year, reflecting higher prices for sugar, meat and rice. Although the UN gauge is still 20% lower than the record set in March 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted grain exports, concerns over inflation never left. Read More |
 |
05.12.23- Why Future Returns
|
 |
05.11.23- The Economy Is Beginning To Shudder -
|
 |
05.10.23- The Epic Failure Of Modern Experts
There’s a debate in the comments section here about whether Americans have gotten suddenly dumber, leading them to elect populist presidents and refuse vaccines. I started to weigh in but quickly realized that the story is broader and deeper than just vaccines and Donald Trump. So here’s some context: Read More |
 |
05.09.23- "It's Spooky": Stanford Professor Warns
In a New York Times opinion piece titled"Yes, You Should Be Worried About a Potential Bank Crisis. Here's Why,"Professor Amit Seru wrote, "the fragility and collapse of several high-profile banks are most likely not an isolated phenomenon." Read More |
 |
05.08.23- It's Time To Panic...
|
 |
Consumer Credit Shocker: Credit Card Debt Explodes At 2nd Fastest Pace On Record Just As Rates Hit All-Time High
One month ago, not long after we warned that consumer credit was about to get much tighter in the aftermath of one of the most depressing Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys, which saw near record tightening in lending standards coupled with a historic plunge in credit demand, we observed that - as one would generally expect - growth in US credit card debt had ground to a crawl, as revolving credit rose by just $5 billion, down sharply from the $12.8 billion in January, down from the $13.7 billion LTM average, and the lowest single increase since April 2021. Read More |
 |
05.05.23- On The Verge Of A Banking Industry Apocalypse?
|
 |
05.04.23- Establishment Economists Are Finally Realizing It’s Time To Pay The Piper
|
 |
Is America’s banking system safe? The data shows that the three American banks that have failed so far this year represent more deposits than the 25 banks that collapsed in 2008. Read More |
 |
05.02.23- This Is The Sharpest Tightening of Credit in History
A credit crunch will now reduce inflation, but in a very painful manner. A lack of credit means an avalanche of bankruptcies. They should hit record highs. Read More |
 |
05.01.23- The S.E.C. and BlackRock Blink on SLV
|
 |
04.29.23- Warning: the Financial System is About to Lose Its Last Major Prop
This is a big deal. Why? First and foremost, it’s significantly higher than expectations: 3.5% vs 3.2%. Secondly, it shows that inflation is turning back upwards in Japan. Last month’s inflation data was 3.2% which was down from the prior month’s 3.3% which was down from the prior month’s 4.3%. Read More |
 |
04.28.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: On War and Wars
|
 |
04.27.23- It's a Good Thing for Ordinary Americans If the US Loses
Kudlow's remarks came a day after Donald Trump declared that China is trying to displace the U.S. Dollar [sic] as the NUMBER ONE CURRENCY" and that if this occurs, it would be the biggest defeat for our Country [sic] in its history." Read More |
 |
04.26.23- Hard data that confidence in the dollar
For nearly eight decades, the US economy and US government have enjoyed the unparalleled benefits of the dollar being the world’s reserve currency. Read More |
 |
04.25.23- We’re Our Own Worst Enemy
It’s unfortunate that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has turned out to be the slow kid in the class when it comes to economic sanctions and financial warfare. Read More |
 |
04.24.23- Are We Heading Towards
Just look at your average history class. Professors boldly declare that the New Deal was a net positive for society. If it wasn’t for then-president Franklin D. Roosevelt’s bravery, the US would have been thoroughly gobbled up by the predatory capitalist system. However, real history had something else to say. Read More |
 |
04.22.23- Will We Ever Get Accountability?
Goldman Sachs' Crypto desk wrote the following post-mortem on the last week: Read More |
 |
04.21.23- "The Other Canaries In The Coal Mine Just Haven't Shown Up Yet"
Everyone’s on the lookout for how last month’s bank turmoil may be rippling through the economy. Roughly a week into earnings season, investors are starting to get some clues. Take Fastenal, a supplier of construction materials like nuts and bolts that’s seen as an industrial bellwether. Read More |
 |
04.20.23- Over the Falls: Credit, Collateral, Risk, Asset Valuations
|
 |
04.19.23- My Ignored Warnings of American De-industrialization
That same week Business Week published an article, “Factory Jobs Are Gone. Get Over It,” by Charles Kenny. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-23/manufacturing-jobs-may-not-be-cure-for-unemployment-inequality Kenny expresses the view of establishment economists, such as Brookings Institute economist Justin Wolfers who wants to know “What’s with the political fetish for manufacturing? Are factories really so awesome?” Read More |
 |
04.18.23- Explainer: U.S. yield curve reaches deepest inversion since 1981: What is it telling us?
The U.S. central bank has hiked interest rates aggressively over the last year to fight inflation that hovered around 40-year highs and bring it down to its 2% target rate. Read More |
 |
|
 |
04.15.23- Weekend Rant: Project Icebreaker: The Beginning Of A One World Digital Currency System?
|
 |
|
 |
04.13.23- Danger Ahead. Banking Sector Crisis
|
 |
This Time Really Could Be Different
|
 |
04.11.23- Goodbye, King Dollar
At the same time, I’ve said that such processes don’t happen overnight; instead, they happen slowly and incrementally over decades. While that’s true, the process is accelerating in ways no one could have anticipated just over a year ago. Read More |
 |
04.10.23- Bondage Is Cruel
Currently, less than 3,000 daily riders take the Central Subway. This represents about 0.37 percent of the city’s total population. Perhaps for these riders it’s a good deal. For everyone else it’s a complete rip off. Read More |
 |
04.08.23- Here’s What the Smart Money’s Thinking
The bond market is where you will find them. That is: The bond market will let you know where the economy is heading, say the veterans. Read More |
 |
04.07.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: America, the Tyranny of the Stupid
Then, when time and time again, no such plan materializes, and it is demonstrated that America has blundered into a diplomatic, economic or military morass, for some unknown reason, a “reset” occurs, and the wrong assumptions are again made. Read More |
 |
04.06.23- Why the Regime Needs the Dollar to Be the Global Reserve Currency
Much of the analysis was framed to stoke the public’s fears of Chinese geopolitical power, and the Fox segment was especially hyperbolic in its predictions of near-total economic devastation resulting from any movement away from the dollar in international trade. Read More |
 |
04.05.23- Why The Panic Is Just Beginning
As a preliminary matter, let’s distinguish between a recession (even a bad one) and a financial crisis. They’re different. Read More |
 |
04.04.23- Global Bankruptcy Already Baked In
It’s really that simple. In eras of easy credit, both creditworthy and marginal borrowers are suddenly able to borrow more. This flood of new cash seeking a return fuels red-hot demand for conventional assets considered “safe investments” (real estate, blue chip stocks and bonds), demand of which given the limited supply of “safe” assets pushes valuations of these assets to the moon. Read More |
 |
04.03.23- Warning: Inflation is About to Explode Higher Again...
This is a big deal for inflation. Why? Because as I have noted previously, the ONLY inflation data that had come down in the last 12 months was in energy prices. And that was due to the Biden administration dumping 250 million barrels of oil in the open market .Read More |
 |
04.01.23- Deflating the Credit Bubble
The major central banks have increasingly resorted to interest rate management as their principal means of demand management. Yet history shows little correlation between managed interest rates and the growth of credit, which is represented by broad money statistics. Read More |
 |
03.31.23- "Change is Coming That Hasn't Happened In 100 Years" - World Dumps US Dollar
|
 |
03.30.23- I love how everyone pretends
This was so predictable; every time there’s a major crisis, Congressmen book a committee meeting to express their shock and outrage. They pass new laws to prevent a future crisis. Then their new laws fail to work properly, so they hold another public hearing to express more outrage. Read More |
 |
03.29.23- World Bank Warns Of 'Lost Economic Decade' As Turmoil Spreads
|
 |
03.28.23- Guess Who Is Now Warning That “Commercial Real Estate Is In Trouble”?
|
 |
03.27.23- The Everything Bubble and Global Bankruptcy
Scrape away the complexity and every economic crisis and crash boils down to the precarious asymmetry between collateral and the debt secured by that collateral collapsing. It's really that simple. Read More |
 |
03.25.23- Yellen Convenes Emergency Financial Stability Meeting On Friday As Banking Crisis Explodes
Here comes the panic. Bloomberg just reported that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen - who was singlehandedly responsible for stoking and restarting the bank crisis on Wednesday which until that day was easing back, with her comments that nobody in charge was even talking about a uniform deposit insurance, let alone working on one - will convene the heads of top US financial regulators Friday morning for a unscheduled meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. Read More |
 |
03.24.23- Wall Street’s ‘Dr. Doom’ sees ‘Bermuda Triangle’ of risks for economy
Roubini, who predicted the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and earned the moniker “Dr. Doom” on Wall Street, laid out his thinking in a new interview with the McKinsey Global Institute's Forward Thinking podcast. Read More |
 |
03.23.23- The Math Behind Deposit Insurance, And Why It's The Beginning Of The End
|
 |
03.22.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Circus Politics Are Intended to Distract Us. Don’t Be Distracted
Don’t be fooled, not even a little. We’re being subjected to the oldest con game in the books, the magician’s sleight of hand that keeps you focused on the shell game in front of you while your wallet is being picked clean by ruffians in your midst. Read More |
 |
03.21.23- The Banking Crisis —
Veterans of such crises (and I include myself in that category) know that once the dominoes start falling, they keep falling until some government intervention of a particularly draconian kind is imposed. Read More |
 |
03.20.23- "This Is It! The Financial System Is Terminally Broken"
Anyone who doesn’t see what it happening will soon lose a major part of their assets either through bank failure, currency debasement or the collapse of all bubble assets like stocks, property and bonds by 75-100%. Many bonds will become worthless. Wealth preservation in physical gold is now absolutely critical. Obviously it must be stored outside a broken financial system. More later in this article. Read More |
 |
03.18.23- Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar
|
 |
03.17.23- The Crisis is Here... What to do NOW
|
 |
03.16.23- Is The US Banking System Safe? ...
“I have full confidence in banking regulators to take appropriate actions in response and noted that the banking system remains resilient and regulators have effective tools to address this type of event. Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out . . . and the reforms that have been put in place means we are not going to do that again.” – Janet Yellen – 3/12/23 Read More |
 |
03.15.23- Looming Bank Failures Point to More Price Inflation as Real Wages Fall Again
The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new price inflation data today, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in eighteen months. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 6.0 percent year over year in February before seasonal adjustment. That’s down from January’s year-over-year increase of 6.4 percent, and February is the twenty-fourth month in a row with inflation above the Fed’s arbitrary 2 percent inflation target. Price inflation has now been above 6 percent for seventeen months in a row. Read More |
 |
03.14.23- What Comes After the Great Liquidation
The primary assumption was that inflation would relent. After that, everything else would neatly fall in line. Specifically, interest rates would decline, and the next great stock market boom would bubble up just in time to bailout the meager retirement savings of aging baby boomers. Read More |
 |
|
 |
03.11.23- Silicon Valley Bank collapse
The fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank — the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history — spread on Friday as tech companies scrambled to make payroll, investors worried about contagion, and other businesses discovered surprising connections to the lender. Regulators shut down SVB, the country’s 15th-largest bank, after depositors pulled their cash and mounting losses on bond investments made it functionally insolvent. The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation transferred insured deposits at SVB to a newly created entity and will now look to sell or wind down the bank. Read More |
 |
03.10.23- Fiscal Illusion and Entitlements
One example is President Biden’s bragging that “In the last two years, my administration has cut the deficit by more than $1.7 trillion—the largest deficit reduction in American history,” which implied that we should only look at a short run effect which had little, if anything, to do with the policies he adopted, in evaluating his fiscal policy. Read More |
 |
03.09.23- Dead Cat Bounce In Housing Followed By More Downside
Affordability is, generically, the ratio of monthly income vs the median price of a home. Essentially the degree to which a potential home buyer can afford the basic monthly payments on a home. Here’s another way to look at affordability in terms of the monthly cost (mortgage, taxes, insurance) to buy a house: Read More |
 |
03.08.23- Is MMT Now Official Policy?
At the time, MMT was all the rage among monetary and fiscal policy wonks. It seemed to offer the best of all possible worlds. You can spend as much as you want without any downside. Read More |
 |
03.07.23- What If There Are No Solutions?
Realists who question received wisdom and conclude the status quo is untenable are quickly labeled pessimists because the zeitgeist expects a solution is always at hand--preferably a technocratic one that requires zero sacrifice and doesn't upset the status quo apple cart. Read More |
 |
03.06.23- The War for the Dollar is Already Over Part I
For nearly the past two years I’ve been a nearly lone voice in the wilderness questioning the financial orthodoxy over the behavior of the Federal Reserve. It started with an innocent, if not openly naïve question back in June of 2021, “Could the Fed actually be getting off the globalist train?” Read More |
 |
03.04.23- Why Is Every Walmart In The Entire City Of Portland Being Permanently Shut Down?
|
 |
03.03.23- China's Turn
Ukraine is the first flashpoint in a great power struggle between the United States and China. After years of shifting its industries to low-wage locations around the world, the US finds itself steadliy losing market-share to a faster-growing and more resourceful China. By most estimates, China’s economy will overtake the United States by 2035 at which point, Beijing will be in a much better position to shape international trade relations that promotes its own interests. Read More |
 |
03.02.23- Biden’s “Great Economic Recovery” Narrative Is Built On Deception
|
 |
03.01.23- Brace Yourself For Extreme Economic Turbulence
|
 |
02.27.23- What Will Happen When Banks Go Bust? Bank Runs, Bail-Ins and Systemic Risk
|
 |
02.25.23- Fear And Greed With A Roll Of The Dice
Major U.S. stock market indexes hit what is likely an interim bottom in the fall of 2022. Since then, they’ve bounced with incredible vitality. The bounce has brought new confidence to investors at what may end up being the worst possible time. Read More |
 |
02.24.23- The Geoeconomics of Modern Conflict
What is “geoeconomics”? Obviously, it’s a portmanteau from the words geopolitics and economics. There’s nothing new about considering those disciplines in the same context. Read More |
 |
02.23.23- This "Strong" Economy Is A Facade Built Out Of Debt
But a lot of people are ignoring a key question: how are people paying for this shopping spree? Read More |
 |
02.22.23- The Market Faces A Second
Yesterday saw stocks swoon (S&P -2.0%, Dow -2.1% to negative year-to-date) and bonds slump (US 2-year yields +10bp, 10-year yields +12bp to test closer to 4%), with expectations of the Fed Funds terminal rate rising to 5.35% - still 15bps short of reality, but a partial market catch-up to it. Read More |
 |
02.21.23- America is About to Go Supernova
Most people thought it was a new star– the brightest, by far, that anyone had ever observed. Some thought it was an omen or a sign from the gods. Read More |
 |
02.20.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Moment of Greatest Danger
More true now than it was before With the incomprehensibly costly Ukrainian “counter-offensive” having bogged down against reinforced Russian defensive lines, the decisive military operations of the Ukraine War have taken a giant step towards their long-foregone conclusion. Russia will fully achieve the three objectives of its “special military operation” as explicitly stated by Vladimir Putin in his address to the world delivered on the opening day of the war: liberating the Donbass; excising the Nazi influence from the region, and demilitarizing Ukraine. Read More |
 |
02.18.23- Stocks Seek New Religion in Effort to Rise from their Decline, but Where’s the Beef?
After the latest CPI inflation report, the Wall Street prophets of profits have moved to a higher level of highs as the opiate smoke circles their brains. They have shifted their dialectic from the US economy making a “soft landing” to a new “no-landing” prediction. Read More |
 |
02.17.23- And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Fraud!!!
GAO is out to specify the amount of taxpayer monies lost to fraud at the federal level:
|
 |
02.16.23- Dr. Jim Willie: Everything Is Breaking
|
 |
02.15.23- A World Without Finance
|
 |
02.14.23- Don't Let Balloons Distract You From The Global Economic Collapse
To anyone still involved with the Chinese balloon drama, let me remind you that the U.S. (and the entire world, in fact) was invaded by China long ago. Products and dopamine-inducing apps, farmland acquisition, shady investments, and government collusion in some places and continents, and so on are all evidence of this. Read More |
 |
02.13.23- What Crappy Beer Demand Tells Us About The Economy
It’s not as clear as saying that people simply don’t want beer, or that consumers are becoming more budget-conscious. There are a few factors afoot here. Read More |
 |
02.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: One Flew Over the Greenie's Nest
|
 |
02.10.23- Money and recession
Monetarists are warning now that money supply has stopped growing and even turned negative, so we are heading for a recession. This article examines the position for US dollar M2 money supply and the prospects for the US economy. But monetary growth, or the lack of it, doesn’t only affect GDP, but a large element of economic activity which is not included in it, principally financial activities, and the acquisition of assets such as property. Read More |
 |
02.09.23- Crash Alert
Ignore that low unemployment rate. Most forward-looking stats are screaming recession, and the epicenter of the coming quake is plastic. From CNBC:
|
 |
02.08.23- Harry Dent Doubles Down: Major Crash for Equities in Third Phase,
|
 |
02.07.23- Where’s Oil Going?
A bull case can be made on the basis of persistent inflation, shortages due in part to the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration’s war on oil and natural gas and the reopening of China after the worst of the pandemic. Read More |
 |
02.06.23- Lose-Lose
The New York Times — indicted this week as a chronic purveyer of untruths by no less than their supposed ally, The Columbia Journalism Review — is lying to you again this morning. Read More |
 |
02.04.23- Don’t Be Stupid – The U.S. Economy Actually LOST 2.5 Million Jobs Last Month
|
 |
02.03.23- You Think the Global Economy Is Brightening? Beware: The Big Hit Is Yet to Come
|
 |
“Sell,” he wrote in a one-word, since-deleted tweet on Tuesday. The missive came just hours ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its latest interest rate decision, and Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated press conference. Read More |
 |
02.01.23- Cardboard box demand plunging at rates unseen since the Great Recession
It’s the latest indicator that consumer demand is eroding following the pandemic. Dwindling savings, inflation, rising interest rates and fears of a recession may all be swaying consumers to spend less. Read More |
 |
01.31.23- Markets Haven't Accounted for
Despite these things, investors in the U.S. don't seem to be paying much attention to rising geopolitical risks at present. That may soon change. Read More |
 |
01.30.23- People We Should Know:
Nouriel Roubini has one of those resumes that inspire skepticism -- because no one should be able to pack that much high-level work into one lifetime. He has, at various times, been associated with Harvard, the IMF, the Fed, the World Bank, the Council of Economic Advisors, the US Treasury, New York University, and (apparently his day job) Roubini Macro Associates LLC, an economic consultancy.Read More
|
 |
01.28.23- We're Close To A Death Spiral In The Financial System
|
 |
01.27.23- Collapsing Real Estate Market
I’ll begin by mentioning something published in Investment Watchblog that I found linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: US Median Home Price Drops 12% in Six Months – Largest Drop Since 2009. Please take the time to read that article. Read More |
 |
01.26.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: In Ukraine, it appears America will soon be arming both side’s combatants
|
 |
01.25.23- Ted Oakley; Expect A Mass Die-Off Of Public Companies Later This Year
|
 |
01.24.23- 2023: Year of the New Gold Bull
Now that we’ve shaken off the cobwebs, it’s time to look ahead and focus on the stocks and sectors with the best potential to take the lead in 2023’s first quarter – and beyond. Unfortunately, many investors are going to miss these opportunities. Read More |
 |
01.23.23- So What’s Replacing the Dollar?
The U.S. weaponization of the dollar against nations it deems hostile, like Russia, has only intensified the calls for change. What exactly will replace the dollar standard is a matter of debate, but many agree that it’s just a matter of time. It may not happen overnight, but it will happen. Read More |
 |
I have said this for a long time. The global elite hate you, they want to destroy your standard of living, and reduce you to a serf, a powerless and dispensable carbon emitter. I dare entitled, no doubt wealthy (she’s in government, after all) Chrystia Freeland to walk the streets of Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, and other cities destroyed by the global elite, and try to sell this recipe for poverty and misery. Freeland would not make it out alive in many neighborhoods. Read More |
 |
01.20.23- Say’s Law and Macroeconomic Ignorance
While there are variations in production outputs of individual goods, in free markets there can never be a general glut. It was this that Keynes had to disprove in order to create a role for the state, intervening to make up for the supposed deficiencies of free markets. While reasoned analysis shows that Keynes failed to disprove Say’s law, he managed to convince the mainstream establishment that he had actually succeeded. Read More |
 |
01.19.23- The Global Outlook For 2023
Michael Howell writes:
|
 |
01.18.23- All Quiet (Panic) on the Western Front
The World Economic Forum (WEF)’s Davos Freak Show is back in business on Monday. The mainstream media of the collective West, in unison, will be spinning non-stop, for a week, all the “news” that are fit to print to extol new declinations of The Great Reset, re-baptized The Great Narrative, but actually framed as a benign offer by “stakeholder capitalism”. These are the main planks of the shady platform of a shady NGO registered in Cologny, a tony Geneva suburb. Read More |
 |
01.17.23- The easiest 833x return
“Jessica,” he wrote to the precisely zero people who paid attention to his LiveJournal blog, “is a bitch. I need to think of something to take my mind off her. I need to think of something to occupy my mind. Easy enough, now I just need an idea.” Read More |
 |
01.16.23- A Long Way to Fall: Stock Market’s Bottom is Hardly Even Within Sight
|
 |
01.14.23- Real Wages Fall for the Twenty-First Month as Rent and Food Prices Keep Rising
|
 |
01.13.23- We Won’t Be Fooled Again – Inflation Is Most Definitely Not “Under Control”
|
 |
01.12.23- Dip in Mortgage Rates Not Slowing Housing Bust 2: Mortgage Lenders Sing the Blues
Mortgage applications to purchase a home are a forward-looking indicator of where home sales volume will be. Existing home sales that closed in November already plunged by 35% year-over-year, the 16th month in a row of year-over-year declines, making for a historic plunge. And mortgage applications went into the wrong direction from there, despite the dip in mortgage rates. Read More |
 |
01.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Lemmings Will be Lemmings:
|
 |
01.10.23- Scammed!
Too often, government itself is part of that scam. That certainly seems true in the above two cases. And perhaps this is why Sam Bankman-Fried is being treated with kid gloves, with his $250 million bail not involving one bit of cash. Read More |
 |
01.09.23- It’s Worse Than it Looks: Beneath the Surface the Bottom is Falling Out, and People are Jumping out of Windows
This weekend, for example, I’m going to be working on a deep dive in one of my special posts for patrons into the confusing swirl of conflicting employment news that sent stocks soaring skyward today. It was really far shakier than the market wants to believe it heard. Read More |
 |
01.07.23- Is There an
But then you have Jeffrey A. Tucker saying that the end of negative interest rates ain’t gonna be a walk in the park. Sez he:
|
 |
01.06.23- Here’s What Happens in 2023
As a financial newsletter, we are duty-bound to hazard our annual market forecast — such as it is. So today we fetch our crystal ball from storage, blow away the dust… and gaze for images of the year ahead. How will the economy fare in 2023? Where will the stock market end the year? Gold? Oil? Bitcoin? Read More |
 |
01.05.23- Recession Or Inflation...
What is the Fed really thinking? They will probably er on the side of lower rates to avoid recession, running the risk of entrenched wage growth. Soft landings are the stuff of myth! How it effects the global economy is critical. Read More |
 |
01.04.23- Dollar’s demise about to
TOKYO — If you want to know how worried Asian officials are over a sliding US dollar this year, look no further than the frantic scene at Bank of Japan (BOJ) headquarters. Read More |
 |
01.03.23-Michael Burry: "US Is In Recession, Fed Will Cut And Will Cause Another Inflation Spike"
|
 |
01.02.23- Free-Market Capitalism is the Next American Economy
The American experiment has paved the way for millions to escape poverty and build a better life via a free-market system with a constitutional republic that encourages innovation and results in more human flourishing than ever before. Read More |
The debt cycle is something many North Americans have become all too familiar with.
Should stock valuations track this same decline in profits, it's entirely reasonable to expect the stock market to lose 2/3 of its valuation premium. 
That was quite a week we just had in the market. In fact, if you are a news follower, you are probably confused as hell.
U.S. stocks are falling as investors readied for the highly-anticipated two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting.
We’re still living in 2008.
Taking a look at 3 new stories over at Zero Hedge, one might think we’re closing in on WW3. With the most recent one reporting 
Some of America's largest cities could be on the verge of an economic "doom loop" thanks to the crashing office real estate market, according to one Columbia economist.
Can the Wall Street Journal‘s headline writers save America’s juiced-up economy from going bust? They are certainly trying. Check out their lede in Friday’s editions: The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over. Fancy that! With mortgage rates headed toward 8%, many readers must have done a double-take when they read this seeming howler. Your editor wondered why the copy desk had not punctuated the headline with three or four exclamation points, lest the story fail to goad potential buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines into action. 
Higher interest rates are absolutely strangling the real estate industry, and there is no relief in sight. The sudden shift from a very low interest rate environment to a much higher interest rate environment has paralyzed sales. As I have discussed 
As the world descends into a much-heralded recession, the surprise will be that interest rates will continue to rise as economic activity contracts. This is not what the economic establishment expects.
US military recruitment crisis rooted in obesity, drug addiction, mental health issues and low educational attainmentThe US military faces an unprecedented rebe a significant factor in declining US military recruitment rates. “Woke” refers to awareness and attention to critical societal facts and issues, especially related to race, gender and social justice. 
No sooner had the BRICS Summit in South Africa ended on Aug. 24 that Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell took the podium at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 25.
Have you heard the good news?
Many of us don’t know whom to support for President. Brain-dead Biden is of course impossible. Donald Trump is better but he supports many bad policies, such as Covid vaccines and high tariffs, and his term as President was almost a total disaster. Robert Kennedy, Jr. is still better, but he is unsound on economics. There is only one person in the United States today who has the intellectual substance, homespun eloquence, charm, and charisma to galvanize the American public, who are tired of politics as usual and want a change. We know he has this ability because he has demonstrated it already in past campaigns, and he is 100% right on all issues. I refer of course to the heroic Dr. Ron Paul. 
Corporate media 
Truly, you’d have to be an oblivious idiot at this point to think the government’s COVID orders are intended to benefit the people. You’d also have to be an idiot to think that N95 masks stop COVID transmission, that social distancing works, or that COVID vaccines prevent infections and transmission.
We aren’t quite there yet, but an enormous credit card debt crisis is definitely brewing. Americans are becoming increasingly dependent on their credit cards to make ends meet from month to month, the percentage of us that are carrying balances from month to month is growing, and the average rate of interest on such balances has risen above 20 percent. If you can possibly avoid it, do not carry credit card balances from month to month, because that will strangle you financially. Unfortunately, our young people are never taught this in school, and so many of them get into deep financial trouble when they become adults. And once you get into deep financial trouble, it can take many years to get out of it. 
Summer trading is sometimes a slow, tedious affair — especially toward the end of August.
Anyone paying attention to NVDA?
If there ever was an “uh-oh” moment for the U.S. economy, it’s coming very soon.
Xi did not even show up to his own keynote speech, and everyone downplayed Brazil's notion of a BRICS currency ... even Brazil!
It’s finally here…
The BRICS Leaders’ Summit is scheduled to begin tomorrow, Aug. 22 in South Africa, which will run through the 24th.
Unexpected things tend to happen when the real source of problems are papered over and then suddenly reality intrudes.
Do you remember what happened in 2008? Many people believe that another historic financial disaster is coming and that it will absolutely devastate the U.S. economy. Earlier this week, I wrote about an investor named Michael Burry that has actually bet 
After sending local capital markets into a tailspin and triggering a currency devaluation 
At the start of August, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US government's top credit rating. Last week, Moody's cut the credit ratings of small and midsized US banks because of higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weaknesses, and rising risks tied to commercial real estate loans. Now, another week, another possible downgrade, this time of major banks.
No nation clinging to the current "waste is growth / landfill economy" will survive the emergent global polycrisis. 
Lawmakers in Washington seem oblivious to the threat of America’s mounting public debt. For the second time in its history, the United States saw its AAA rating on long-term 
This chart strongly suggests that US Treasury bond yields, widely regarded as the risk-free yardstick against which all other credit is measured are going significantly higher, not stabilising close to current levels before going lower as commonly believed. I conclude that US Treasury bond yields could easily double, and the political class will be powerless to stop them going even higher. The implications for interest rates globally are that they will be forced considerably higher as well. 
As youth the Road Runner cartoon show amused us vastly.
You’re probably aware that Fitch has downgraded the credit rating of the United States from AAA to AA+. It was big news last week.
“The West can’t do diplomacy in general, it can’t run its cities or countries except into the ground, its high-tech projects fail almost as a rule, its infrastructure is crumbling, its economies are crumbling, and all public policies seem to have a civilizational suicide as a final goal.”
After pouring more than $100 billion in taxpayer dollars into the black hole known as Ukraine, the neocon war hawks in Washington and London will have a lot of explaining to do when Ukraine implodes into chaos. Poland will likely move in to take a spoil in the western provinces, settling an old score against the Ukrainians, while Russia will take parts of the east. Below, Martin Armstrong explains the ugly history that makes Ukraine the cesspool of corruption that it is today — history of which Americans and Brits are almost completely ignorant. (Notes in parentheses are mine). 
The United Auto Workers is seeking a 46% wage increase over four years as a part of its negotiations with the Detroit Three automakers, according to a page of the union's written demands.
Do things seem “slow” to you this summer? If so, you are definitely not alone. In recent weeks, my wife and I have heard from so many people that are saying that activity at their businesses or organizations has been really slow lately. In other words, less money has been coming in than usual. This has caused a lot of confusion, because when these people turn on their televisions they are told that the U.S. economy is doing just fine. Of course that is 
The bulls are running wild.
Less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. ceased all operations at 12 p.m. Sunday, according to a notice on the gates at its terminals.
The stock market has been up and away this year.
Days after a House hearing on censorship that saw Democrats attempt to prevent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from testifying, a new Harvard-Harris poll showed that he has a higher favorability rating than any other presidential candidate.
I’m on the road early this week.
Company says in plea to judge it will be forced to file for bankruptcy
ESG scoring and mandates remain a subject we have contested since it sprang to life in 2020. The push of “woke activism” on, and by companies, to meet nebulous or artificial standards has led to various bad outcomes.
Mexico’s top diplomat said Friday her country has sent a diplomatic note to the U.S. government expressing concern that Texas’ deployment of floating barriers on the Rio Grande may violate 1944 and 1970 treaties on boundaries and water. 
At the end of June government leaders and think-tank power brokers from around the world met at the 
As a result of data released over the past week (mostly, the last 3 days), it seems clear to me that we may be facing a clear market emergency in COMEX silver futures. I am trying hard not to be alarmist, but what I see alarms the heck out of me – to the point that I believe we are at the most critical juncture in COMEX silver since the peak of prices back in early 1980, when all sorts of emergency measures were enacted to deal with the Hunt Brothers that are debated to this day, 43 years later. 
Qatar was the world’s biggest arms importer in 2022, according to 
Since last March the Federal Reserve has been elevating its target rate — with fantastic abandon.
Inflation is going down! Isn’t that wonderful? When many less educated Americans hear this news, they will think that prices are going down. But that is not true at all. In fact, prices are still going up. They are just going up at a slower rate than they were before. According to the federal government, the Consumer Price Index was only 3 percent higher in June 2023 than it was in June 2022. That sounds like pretty good news, but it is imperative to realize that the formula used for the Consumer Price Index has literally been changed dozens of times over the decades. If the rate of inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, it would still be 
Eventually policy-makers turn the dials to 11 and nothing happens. 
The big, bad tech stocks have dominated the market during the first half of 2023.
Now that debt is rising faster than "growth," and "growth" is dependent on speculative credit-asset bubbles, the collapse of the Keynesian dream looms large. 
And it’s structural. Variable-rate CRE mortgages and much higher rates just speed up the process.
Today we celebrate insurrection.
Today we abandon our focus upon the Ukraine situation. We abandon our focus upon Wall Street. We abandon our focus upon politics, mercifully.
WSJ explains why many white-collar workers are getting the pink slip before other employees. Illustration: Adele Morgan
In this twenty-minute conversation with Investor Talk’s Jan Kneist, 
That didn’t take long. Twelve days after Biden signed the ballyhooed legislation unfreezing the nation’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, the public debt crossed the $32 trillion mark on June 16th. And that was only nine months after it crossed the $31 trillion level in October 2022.
Since its inception, International Man has offered prognostications about what the future will bring – economically, politically and socially. The principle writers of the publication have been at this for decades. Each one began by studying world economics and politics in order to make the best choices as to where to live, where to invest, where to store wealth, etc. Over the years, each one got better at researching, better at reading the signs and, ultimately, better at predicting future events. 
Shudder is an interesting word, in this case, when talking about the economy, it is being used as a verb that means to wobble or shake in not a good way. While the verdict is not yet in, recently there has been more talk about the lag effect coming home to roost. The lag effect suggests that it sometimes takes a while before we witness the effect of an action. When you poison a plant, or tree there is a time lag before the damage you have inflicted upon it becomes obvious. 
Following the collapse of First Republic last week, the 
Every time that they tell us that everything is fine, things just seem to get even worse. This banking crisis was supposed to be “over” after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed. It wasn’t. Then it was supposed to be “over” after First Republic collapsed. It wasn’t. By now, most of you already know about what has been happening to PacWest, Western Alliance, First Horizon and countless other regional bank stocks. In all my years, I have never seen banking stocks fall so quickly. If this avalanche continues to pick up momentum, pretty soon we will have to stop talking about a “banking industry crisis” and start talking about a “banking industry apocalypse”. 
The one thing about the financial world that never ceases to amaze me is how far behind the curve mainstream economists always seem to be. Not long ago we had both Janet Yellen and Paul Krugman, economists supposedly at the front of the pack, both proving to be utterly ignorant (or strategically dishonest) on the effects of central bank stimulus measures and the threat of inflation. In fact, they both consistently denied such a threat existed until they were crushed by the evidence. 
We wrote in our March Wellington Letter that the free market, i.e. the banks, will now do what the Fed has refused to do: Tighten credit! The Fed only hiked interest rates, which actually fuels inflation. Most central banks make that mistake. 
The big news is last night’s release of the new short report on stocks, which indicated a massive 25 million share reduction in the short position on SLV, the big silver ETF, as of the close of business April 14. The short position on SLV fell from 41.5 million shares to 16.3 million shares, the largest by-monthly drop (60%) in history, to the lowest short position on SLV in more than two years – back to the time in Feb 2021 when BlackRock (the trust’s sponsor) amended the trust’s prospectus to include new risk factors warning short sellers to beware of shorting shares due to serious concerns of the availability of physical silver bullion. 
Japan just reported inflation of 3.5%.
Earlier this month, 
It is becoming increasingly clear that the world is losing faith in the United States dollar… and rapidly turning to alternatives. And that’s a huge deal for the United States.
It’s a fact of life that in any group of students, some are likely to be smarter and quicker than others while some just can’t keep up.
Together, these factors generate a self-reinforcing cycle of debt saturation, declining collateral and credit contraction. 
The resulting erosion of collateral will collapse the global credit bubble, a repricing/reset that will bankrupt the global economy and financial system. 
"Capital markets stop panicking when officials start panicking" - Michael Hartnett
Eurasia’s geo-economic integration took a great leap forward as a result of the 
We will enter a world without finance, and it will be a better world, for the economy will no longer be in thrall to the derangement and inequality of parasitic, predatory finance.
Credible gloom and doom
