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03.24.23- Wall Street’s ‘Dr. Doom’ sees ‘Bermuda Triangle’ of risks for economy
Roubini, who predicted the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and earned the moniker “Dr. Doom” on Wall Street, laid out his thinking in a new interview with the McKinsey Global Institute's Forward Thinking podcast. Read More |
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03.23.23- The Math Behind Deposit Insurance, And Why It's The Beginning Of The End
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03.22.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Circus Politics Are Intended to Distract Us. Don’t Be Distracted
Don’t be fooled, not even a little. We’re being subjected to the oldest con game in the books, the magician’s sleight of hand that keeps you focused on the shell game in front of you while your wallet is being picked clean by ruffians in your midst. Read More |
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03.21.23- The Banking Crisis —
Veterans of such crises (and I include myself in that category) know that once the dominoes start falling, they keep falling until some government intervention of a particularly draconian kind is imposed. Read More |
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03.20.23- "This Is It! The Financial System Is Terminally Broken"
Anyone who doesn’t see what it happening will soon lose a major part of their assets either through bank failure, currency debasement or the collapse of all bubble assets like stocks, property and bonds by 75-100%. Many bonds will become worthless. Wealth preservation in physical gold is now absolutely critical. Obviously it must be stored outside a broken financial system. More later in this article. Read More |
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03.18.23- Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar
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03.17.23- The Crisis is Here... What to do NOW |
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03.16.23- Is The US Banking System Safe? ...
“I have full confidence in banking regulators to take appropriate actions in response and noted that the banking system remains resilient and regulators have effective tools to address this type of event. Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out . . . and the reforms that have been put in place means we are not going to do that again.” – Janet Yellen – 3/12/23 Read More |
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03.15.23- Looming Bank Failures Point to More Price Inflation as Real Wages Fall Again The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new price inflation data today, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in eighteen months. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 6.0 percent year over year in February before seasonal adjustment. That’s down from January’s year-over-year increase of 6.4 percent, and February is the twenty-fourth month in a row with inflation above the Fed’s arbitrary 2 percent inflation target. Price inflation has now been above 6 percent for seventeen months in a row. Read More |
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03.14.23- What Comes After the Great Liquidation
The primary assumption was that inflation would relent. After that, everything else would neatly fall in line. Specifically, interest rates would decline, and the next great stock market boom would bubble up just in time to bailout the meager retirement savings of aging baby boomers. Read More |
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03.11.23- Silicon Valley Bank collapse
The fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank — the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history — spread on Friday as tech companies scrambled to make payroll, investors worried about contagion, and other businesses discovered surprising connections to the lender. Regulators shut down SVB, the country’s 15th-largest bank, after depositors pulled their cash and mounting losses on bond investments made it functionally insolvent. The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation transferred insured deposits at SVB to a newly created entity and will now look to sell or wind down the bank. Read More |
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03.10.23- Fiscal Illusion and Entitlements
One example is President Biden’s bragging that “In the last two years, my administration has cut the deficit by more than $1.7 trillion—the largest deficit reduction in American history,” which implied that we should only look at a short run effect which had little, if anything, to do with the policies he adopted, in evaluating his fiscal policy. Read More |
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03.09.23- Dead Cat Bounce In Housing Followed By More Downside
Affordability is, generically, the ratio of monthly income vs the median price of a home. Essentially the degree to which a potential home buyer can afford the basic monthly payments on a home. Here’s another way to look at affordability in terms of the monthly cost (mortgage, taxes, insurance) to buy a house: Read More |
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03.08.23- Is MMT Now Official Policy?
At the time, MMT was all the rage among monetary and fiscal policy wonks. It seemed to offer the best of all possible worlds. You can spend as much as you want without any downside. Read More |
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03.07.23- What If There Are No Solutions?
Realists who question received wisdom and conclude the status quo is untenable are quickly labeled pessimists because the zeitgeist expects a solution is always at hand--preferably a technocratic one that requires zero sacrifice and doesn't upset the status quo apple cart. Read More |
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03.06.23- The War for the Dollar is Already Over Part I
For nearly the past two years I’ve been a nearly lone voice in the wilderness questioning the financial orthodoxy over the behavior of the Federal Reserve. It started with an innocent, if not openly naïve question back in June of 2021, “Could the Fed actually be getting off the globalist train?” Read More |
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03.04.23- Why Is Every Walmart In The Entire City Of Portland Being Permanently Shut Down?
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03.03.23- China's Turn
Ukraine is the first flashpoint in a great power struggle between the United States and China. After years of shifting its industries to low-wage locations around the world, the US finds itself steadliy losing market-share to a faster-growing and more resourceful China. By most estimates, China’s economy will overtake the United States by 2035 at which point, Beijing will be in a much better position to shape international trade relations that promotes its own interests. Read More |
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03.02.23- Biden’s “Great Economic Recovery” Narrative Is Built On Deception
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03.01.23- Brace Yourself For Extreme Economic Turbulence
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02.27.23- What Will Happen When Banks Go Bust? Bank Runs, Bail-Ins and Systemic Risk
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02.25.23- Fear And Greed With A Roll Of The Dice
Major U.S. stock market indexes hit what is likely an interim bottom in the fall of 2022. Since then, they’ve bounced with incredible vitality. The bounce has brought new confidence to investors at what may end up being the worst possible time. Read More |
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02.24.23- The Geoeconomics of Modern Conflict
What is “geoeconomics”? Obviously, it’s a portmanteau from the words geopolitics and economics. There’s nothing new about considering those disciplines in the same context. Read More |
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02.23.23- This "Strong" Economy Is A Facade Built Out Of Debt
But a lot of people are ignoring a key question: how are people paying for this shopping spree? Read More |
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02.22.23- The Market Faces A Second
Yesterday saw stocks swoon (S&P -2.0%, Dow -2.1% to negative year-to-date) and bonds slump (US 2-year yields +10bp, 10-year yields +12bp to test closer to 4%), with expectations of the Fed Funds terminal rate rising to 5.35% - still 15bps short of reality, but a partial market catch-up to it. Read More |
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02.21.23- America is About to Go Supernova
Most people thought it was a new star– the brightest, by far, that anyone had ever observed. Some thought it was an omen or a sign from the gods. Read More |
02.20.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Moment of Greatest Danger
More true now than it was before With the incomprehensibly costly Ukrainian “counter-offensive” having bogged down against reinforced Russian defensive lines, the decisive military operations of the Ukraine War have taken a giant step towards their long-foregone conclusion. Russia will fully achieve the three objectives of its “special military operation” as explicitly stated by Vladimir Putin in his address to the world delivered on the opening day of the war: liberating the Donbass; excising the Nazi influence from the region, and demilitarizing Ukraine. Read More |
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02.18.23- Stocks Seek New Religion in Effort to Rise from their Decline, but Where’s the Beef?
After the latest CPI inflation report, the Wall Street prophets of profits have moved to a higher level of highs as the opiate smoke circles their brains. They have shifted their dialectic from the US economy making a “soft landing” to a new “no-landing” prediction. Read More |
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02.17.23- And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Fraud!!!
GAO is out to specify the amount of taxpayer monies lost to fraud at the federal level:
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02.16.23- Dr. Jim Willie: Everything Is Breaking |
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02.15.23- A World Without Finance
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02.14.23- Don't Let Balloons Distract You From The Global Economic Collapse
To anyone still involved with the Chinese balloon drama, let me remind you that the U.S. (and the entire world, in fact) was invaded by China long ago. Products and dopamine-inducing apps, farmland acquisition, shady investments, and government collusion in some places and continents, and so on are all evidence of this. Read More |
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02.13.23- What Crappy Beer Demand Tells Us About The Economy
It’s not as clear as saying that people simply don’t want beer, or that consumers are becoming more budget-conscious. There are a few factors afoot here. Read More |
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02.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: One Flew Over the Greenie's Nest
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02.10.23- Money and recession
Monetarists are warning now that money supply has stopped growing and even turned negative, so we are heading for a recession. This article examines the position for US dollar M2 money supply and the prospects for the US economy. But monetary growth, or the lack of it, doesn’t only affect GDP, but a large element of economic activity which is not included in it, principally financial activities, and the acquisition of assets such as property. Read More |
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02.09.23- Crash Alert
Ignore that low unemployment rate. Most forward-looking stats are screaming recession, and the epicenter of the coming quake is plastic. From CNBC:
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02.08.23- Harry Dent Doubles Down: Major Crash for Equities in Third Phase, |
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02.07.23- Where’s Oil Going?
A bull case can be made on the basis of persistent inflation, shortages due in part to the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration’s war on oil and natural gas and the reopening of China after the worst of the pandemic. Read More |
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02.06.23- Lose-Lose
The New York Times — indicted this week as a chronic purveyer of untruths by no less than their supposed ally, The Columbia Journalism Review — is lying to you again this morning. Read More |
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02.04.23- Don’t Be Stupid – The U.S. Economy Actually LOST 2.5 Million Jobs Last Month
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02.03.23- You Think the Global Economy Is Brightening? Beware: The Big Hit Is Yet to Come
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“Sell,” he wrote in a one-word, since-deleted tweet on Tuesday. The missive came just hours ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its latest interest rate decision, and Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated press conference. Read More |
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02.01.23- Cardboard box demand plunging at rates unseen since the Great Recession
It’s the latest indicator that consumer demand is eroding following the pandemic. Dwindling savings, inflation, rising interest rates and fears of a recession may all be swaying consumers to spend less. Read More |
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01.31.23- Markets Haven't Accounted for
Despite these things, investors in the U.S. don't seem to be paying much attention to rising geopolitical risks at present. That may soon change. Read More |
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01.30.23- People We Should Know:
Nouriel Roubini has one of those resumes that inspire skepticism -- because no one should be able to pack that much high-level work into one lifetime. He has, at various times, been associated with Harvard, the IMF, the Fed, the World Bank, the Council of Economic Advisors, the US Treasury, New York University, and (apparently his day job) Roubini Macro Associates LLC, an economic consultancy.Read More
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01.28.23- We're Close To A Death Spiral In The Financial System |
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01.27.23- Collapsing Real Estate Market
I’ll begin by mentioning something published in Investment Watchblog that I found linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: US Median Home Price Drops 12% in Six Months – Largest Drop Since 2009. Please take the time to read that article. Read More |
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01.26.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: In Ukraine, it appears America will soon be arming both side’s combatants
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01.25.23- Ted Oakley; Expect A Mass Die-Off Of Public Companies Later This Year |
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01.24.23- 2023: Year of the New Gold Bull
Now that we’ve shaken off the cobwebs, it’s time to look ahead and focus on the stocks and sectors with the best potential to take the lead in 2023’s first quarter – and beyond. Unfortunately, many investors are going to miss these opportunities. Read More |
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01.23.23- So What’s Replacing the Dollar?
The U.S. weaponization of the dollar against nations it deems hostile, like Russia, has only intensified the calls for change. What exactly will replace the dollar standard is a matter of debate, but many agree that it’s just a matter of time. It may not happen overnight, but it will happen. Read More |
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I have said this for a long time. The global elite hate you, they want to destroy your standard of living, and reduce you to a serf, a powerless and dispensable carbon emitter. I dare entitled, no doubt wealthy (she’s in government, after all) Chrystia Freeland to walk the streets of Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, and other cities destroyed by the global elite, and try to sell this recipe for poverty and misery. Freeland would not make it out alive in many neighborhoods. Read More |
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01.20.23- Say’s Law and Macroeconomic Ignorance
While there are variations in production outputs of individual goods, in free markets there can never be a general glut. It was this that Keynes had to disprove in order to create a role for the state, intervening to make up for the supposed deficiencies of free markets. While reasoned analysis shows that Keynes failed to disprove Say’s law, he managed to convince the mainstream establishment that he had actually succeeded. Read More |
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01.19.23- The Global Outlook For 2023
Michael Howell writes:
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01.18.23- All Quiet (Panic) on the Western Front
The World Economic Forum (WEF)’s Davos Freak Show is back in business on Monday. The mainstream media of the collective West, in unison, will be spinning non-stop, for a week, all the “news” that are fit to print to extol new declinations of The Great Reset, re-baptized The Great Narrative, but actually framed as a benign offer by “stakeholder capitalism”. These are the main planks of the shady platform of a shady NGO registered in Cologny, a tony Geneva suburb. Read More |
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01.17.23- The easiest 833x return
“Jessica,” he wrote to the precisely zero people who paid attention to his LiveJournal blog, “is a bitch. I need to think of something to take my mind off her. I need to think of something to occupy my mind. Easy enough, now I just need an idea.” Read More |
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01.16.23- A Long Way to Fall: Stock Market’s Bottom is Hardly Even Within Sight
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01.14.23- Real Wages Fall for the Twenty-First Month as Rent and Food Prices Keep Rising
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01.13.23- We Won’t Be Fooled Again – Inflation Is Most Definitely Not “Under Control”
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01.12.23- Dip in Mortgage Rates Not Slowing Housing Bust 2: Mortgage Lenders Sing the Blues
Mortgage applications to purchase a home are a forward-looking indicator of where home sales volume will be. Existing home sales that closed in November already plunged by 35% year-over-year, the 16th month in a row of year-over-year declines, making for a historic plunge. And mortgage applications went into the wrong direction from there, despite the dip in mortgage rates. Read More |
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01.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Lemmings Will be Lemmings:
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01.10.23- Scammed!
Too often, government itself is part of that scam. That certainly seems true in the above two cases. And perhaps this is why Sam Bankman-Fried is being treated with kid gloves, with his $250 million bail not involving one bit of cash. Read More |
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01.09.23- It’s Worse Than it Looks: Beneath the Surface the Bottom is Falling Out, and People are Jumping out of Windows
This weekend, for example, I’m going to be working on a deep dive in one of my special posts for patrons into the confusing swirl of conflicting employment news that sent stocks soaring skyward today. It was really far shakier than the market wants to believe it heard. Read More |
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01.07.23- Is There an
But then you have Jeffrey A. Tucker saying that the end of negative interest rates ain’t gonna be a walk in the park. Sez he:
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01.06.23- Here’s What Happens in 2023
As a financial newsletter, we are duty-bound to hazard our annual market forecast — such as it is. So today we fetch our crystal ball from storage, blow away the dust… and gaze for images of the year ahead. How will the economy fare in 2023? Where will the stock market end the year? Gold? Oil? Bitcoin? Read More |
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01.05.23- Recession Or Inflation...
What is the Fed really thinking? They will probably er on the side of lower rates to avoid recession, running the risk of entrenched wage growth. Soft landings are the stuff of myth! How it effects the global economy is critical. Read More |
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01.04.23- Dollar’s demise about to
TOKYO — If you want to know how worried Asian officials are over a sliding US dollar this year, look no further than the frantic scene at Bank of Japan (BOJ) headquarters. Read More |
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01.03.23-Michael Burry: "US Is In Recession, Fed Will Cut And Will Cause Another Inflation Spike"
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01.02.23- Free-Market Capitalism is the Next American Economy
The American experiment has paved the way for millions to escape poverty and build a better life via a free-market system with a constitutional republic that encourages innovation and results in more human flourishing than ever before. Read More |