03.24.23- Wall Street’s ‘Dr. Doom’ sees ‘Bermuda Triangle’ of risks for economy
and warns of a 2008-like crisis
Steve Mollman

Top economist Nouriel Roubini believes a “severe recession” is likely in the next year thanks to a “Bermuda Triangle” of dangers to the economy. And, oh yes, he’s warning about the “mother of all debt crises."

Roubini, who predicted the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and earned the moniker “Dr. Doom” on Wall Street, laid out his thinking in a new interview with the McKinsey Global Institute's Forward Thinking podcast. Read More

03.23.23- The Math Behind Deposit Insurance, And Why It's The Beginning Of The End
Tyler Durden

As Simon White writes today, "a full guarantee of all bank deposits would spell the end of moral hazard disciplining banks and mark the final chapter of the dollar’s multi-decade debasement." And yet that's where we are headed, even if with a few hiccups along the way, because as White also notes, with the latest banking crisis in the US, it’s the clean-up that could end up doing far more lasting damage. That's because with the failure of SVB et al prompted the FDIC to guarantee that all depositors will be made whole, whether insured or not. Read More

03.22.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Circus Politics Are Intended to Distract Us. Don’t Be Distracted
Nisha and John Whitehead

It is easy to be distracted right now by the bread and circus politics that have dominated the news headlines lately, but don’t be distracted.

Don’t be fooled, not even a little.

We’re being subjected to the oldest con game in the books, the magician’s sleight of hand that keeps you focused on the shell game in front of you while your wallet is being picked clean by ruffians in your midst. Read More

03.21.23- The Banking Crisis —
and Biden Bucks
James Rickards

The biggest mistake any analyst or investor can make right now is to believe that the banking crisis is over.

Veterans of such crises (and I include myself in that category) know that once the dominoes start falling, they keep falling until some government intervention of a particularly draconian kind is imposed. Read More

03.20.23- "This Is It! The Financial System Is Terminally Broken"
Egon Von Greyers

The financial system is terminally broken, toast, kaput!

Anyone who doesn’t see what it happening will soon lose a major part of their assets either through bank failure, currency debasement or the collapse of all bubble assets like stocks, property and bonds by 75-100%. Many bonds will become worthless.

Wealth preservation in physical gold is now absolutely critical. Obviously it must be stored outside a broken financial system. More later in this article. Read More

03.18.23- Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar
Andrew Korybko

Eurasia’s geo-economic integration took a great leap forward as a result of the Iranian–Saudi rapprochement, which unlocks the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) trade potential with Russia and China. Its wealthy members can now tap into two series of Iranian-transiting megaprojects in one fell swoop through this deal, with the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) connecting them to Russia while the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor (CCAWAEC) will do the same vis-à-vis China. Read More

03.17.23- The Crisis is Here... What to do NOW
Doug Casey

View Video

03.16.23- Is The US Banking System Safe? ...
15 Years Later
Jim Quinn

“We’ve got strong financial institutions…Our markets are the envy of the world. They’re resilient, they’re…innovative, they’re flexible. I think we move very quickly to address situations in this country, and, as I said, our financial institutions are strong.” – Henry Paulson – 3/16/08

“I have full confidence in banking regulators to take appropriate actions in response and noted that the banking system remains resilient and regulators have effective tools to address this type of event. Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out . . . and the reforms that have been put in place means we are not going to do that again.” – Janet Yellen – 3/12/23 Read More

03.15.23- Looming Bank Failures Point to More Price Inflation as Real Wages Fall Again
Ryan McMaken

The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new price inflation data today, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in eighteen months. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 6.0 percent year over year in February before seasonal adjustment. That’s down from January’s year-over-year increase of 6.4 percent, and February is the twenty-fourth month in a row with inflation above the Fed’s arbitrary 2 percent inflation target. Price inflation has now been above 6 percent for seventeen months in a row. Read More

03.14.23- What Comes After the Great Liquidation
MN Gordon

Expectations were great.  When 2023 started, there was a general sense that the stock and bond markets had turned over a new leaf.  A repeat of 2022 was out of the question.

The primary assumption was that inflation would relent.  After that, everything else would neatly fall in line.  Specifically, interest rates would decline, and the next great stock market boom would bubble up just in time to bailout the meager retirement savings of aging baby boomers. Read More

03.13.23- Panic in the STREET: One Bank Crashes, A Bigger One RUNS for its life then crashes, and Suddenly it’s Panic on Wall Street!
David Haggith

Just when you have figured out what you’re going to write about at the start of day, along comes major morning news that sweeps your plans away. Today, the news changed more quickly than I could write the introduction to this article. I had to rewrite it and the headline several times after I published the article! Read More

03.11.23- Silicon Valley Bank collapse
sows wider fears
Liz Hoffman

THE SCOOP

The fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank — the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history — spread on Friday as tech companies scrambled to make payroll, investors worried about contagion, and other businesses discovered surprising connections to the lender.

Regulators shut down SVB, the country’s 15th-largest bank, after depositors pulled their cash and mounting losses on bond investments made it functionally insolvent. The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation transferred insured deposits at SVB to a newly created entity and will now look to sell or wind down the bank. Read More

03.10.23- Fiscal Illusion and Entitlements
Gary Galles

As the State of the Union address and subsequent pronouncements have made clear, American politics is in the firm grip of fiscal illusion.

One example is President Biden’s bragging that “In the last two years, my administration has cut the deficit by more than $1.7 trillion—the largest deficit reduction in American history,” which implied that we should only look at a short run effect which had little, if anything, to do with the policies he adopted, in evaluating his fiscal policy. Read More

03.09.23- Dead Cat Bounce In Housing Followed By More Downside
Dave Kranzler

The U.S. housing market is currently the least affordable in at least 25 years:

Affordability is, generically, the ratio of monthly income vs the median price of a home. Essentially the degree to which a potential home buyer can afford the basic monthly payments on a home. Here’s another way to look at affordability in terms of the monthly cost (mortgage, taxes, insurance) to buy a house: Read More

03.08.23- Is MMT Now Official Policy?
James Rickards

Remember Modern Monetary Theory or “MMT”? I first sounded the alarm back in 2018 and then again in 2021.

At the time, MMT was all the rage among monetary and fiscal policy wonks. It seemed to offer the best of all possible worlds. You can spend as much as you want without any downside. Read More

03.07.23- What If There Are No Solutions?
Charles Hugh Smith

The unencumbered realist concludes that there are no solutions within a status quo structure that is itself the problem.

Realists who question received wisdom and conclude the status quo is untenable are quickly labeled pessimists because the zeitgeist expects a solution is always at hand--preferably a technocratic one that requires zero sacrifice and doesn't upset the status quo apple cart. Read More

03.06.23- The War for the Dollar is Already Over Part I
Tom Luongo

And the Fed has won. In the words of Ambassador Kosh from the classic television series Babylon 5, “The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.”

For nearly the past two years I’ve been a nearly lone voice in the wilderness questioning the financial orthodoxy over the behavior of the Federal Reserve. It started with an innocent, if not openly naïve question back in June of 2021, “Could the Fed actually be getting off the globalist train?” Read More

03.04.23- Why Is Every Walmart In The Entire City Of Portland Being Permanently Shut Down?
Michael Snyder

By the end of this month, there will be no more Walmart stores in Portland.  More than 641,000 people live within the city limits of Portland, and so you would think that there should be a lot of money to be made there.  But Walmart has decided to wave the white flag.  Portland has been transformed into a complete and utter hellhole, and apparently Walmart executives have determined that things are not going to turn around any time soon.  So they have announced that the last two Walmart stores in Portland that were still operational will be permanently shut down by the end of March… Read More

03.03.23- China's Turn
Mike Whitney

Americas Hyper-Financialized Economic System Is No Match for China's Government-Directed Investment Model. Regrettably, China's Explosive Growth Is Pushing a Desperate Washington Closer to War.

Ukraine is the first flashpoint in a great power struggle between the United States and China. After years of shifting its industries to low-wage locations around the world, the US finds itself steadliy losing market-share to a faster-growing and more resourceful China. By most estimates, China’s economy will overtake the United States by 2035 at which point, Beijing will be in a much better position to shape international trade relations that promotes its own interests. Read More

03.02.23- Biden’s “Great Economic Recovery” Narrative Is Built On Deception
Brandon Smith

This past month a poll held by ABC and the Washington Post with a 37 year history asked Americans if they were better or worse off in the two years since Biden entered the White House. If you were to ask Biden this question, you would be regaled with a flurry of great news about a fantastic economic recovery, epic jobs numbers, falling inflation and a dropping deficit. When you ask actual average citizens, you get a much different reply. Read More

03.01.23- Brace Yourself For Extreme Economic Turbulence
Michael Snyder

Why is the U.S. economy suddenly deteriorating so rapidly all around us?  Well, the short answer is that this downturn is way overdue.  For years, our leaders tried to cheat the laws of economics.  The Federal Reserve pushed interest rates all the way to the floor, which is something that never would happen in a true free market economy, and they pumped trillions of fresh dollars that they literally created out of thin air into the financial system.  Meanwhile, our politicians in Washington were engaging in the greatest debt binge that the world has ever seen.  All of this reckless manipulation seemed to work for a while, but many of us warned that it would inevitably create a major inflation crisis, and that is precisely what happened.  So now the Fed is aggressively hiking interest rates in a desperate attempt to tame the inflation monster that they helped to create, and higher rates are absolutely crushing economic activity. Read More

02.27.23- What Will Happen When Banks Go Bust? Bank Runs, Bail-Ins and Systemic Risk
Ellen Brown

Financial podcasts have been featuring ominous headlines lately along the lines of “Your Bank Can Legally Seize Your Money” and “Banks Can STEAL Your Money?! Here’s How!” The reference is to “bail-ins:” the provision under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act allowing Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs, basically the biggest banks) to bail in or expropriate their creditors’ money in the event of insolvency. The problem is that depositors are classed as “creditors.” So how big is the risk to your deposit account? Part I of this two part article will review the bail-in issue. Part II will look at the derivatives risk that could trigger the next global financial crisis. Read More

02.25.23- Fear And Greed With A Roll Of The Dice
MN Gordon

Bear markets take time.  They also provide countless occasions to lose money.  With each bounce comes an opportunity for investors to buy higher so they can later sell lower.

Major U.S. stock market indexes hit what is likely an interim bottom in the fall of 2022.  Since then, they’ve bounced with incredible vitality.  The bounce has brought new confidence to investors at what may end up being the worst possible time. Read More

02.24.23- The Geoeconomics of Modern Conflict
James Rickards

Geopolitics play a major role in the outlook for global economies. But more importantly, today, we must look at the world through the prism of geoeconomics.

What is “geoeconomics”? Obviously, it’s a portmanteau from the words geopolitics and economics. There’s nothing new about considering those disciplines in the same context. Read More

02.23.23- This "Strong" Economy Is A Facade Built Out Of Debt
Michael Maharrey

Retail sales surged in January, creating the impression that the economy is humming along nicely. After all, there can’t be a problem if consumers are out there consuming, right?

But a lot of people are ignoring a key question: how are people paying for this shopping spree? Read More

02.22.23- The Market Faces A Second
"Shattering Revelation"
Michael Every

Shattering revelations

Yesterday saw stocks swoon (S&P -2.0%, Dow -2.1% to negative year-to-date) and bonds slump (US 2-year yields +10bp, 10-year yields +12bp to test closer to 4%), with expectations of the Fed Funds terminal rate rising to 5.35% - still 15bps short of reality, but a partial market catch-up to it. Read More

02.21.23- America is About to Go Supernova
Simon Black

On the evening of April 17, 1006 AD, a little more than 1,000 years ago, human beings from around the world looked up into the night sky and saw a brilliant light, the likes of which they had never before seen in their entire lives.

Most people thought it was a new star– the brightest, by far, that anyone had ever observed. Some thought it was an omen or a sign from the gods. Read More

02.20.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Moment of Greatest Danger
William Schryver

The Moment of Greatest Danger

More true now than it was before

With the incomprehensibly costly Ukrainian “counter-offensive” having bogged down against reinforced Russian defensive lines, the decisive military operations of the Ukraine War have taken a giant step towards their long-foregone conclusion. Russia will fully achieve the three objectives of its “special military operation” as explicitly stated by Vladimir Putin in his address to the world delivered on the opening day of the war: liberating the Donbass; excising the Nazi influence from the region, and demilitarizing Ukraine. Read More

02.18.23- Stocks Seek New Religion in Effort to Rise from their Decline, but Where’s the Beef?
David Haggith

The intro here was written for my last edition of The Daily Doom,but it applies equally to everything we are seeing with inflation and jobs and the stock market today (taking the trip down and up and probably down again today) because it is the same ol’ error in thinking that leaves this stock market and the Fed’s inflation foo fighters predictably confounded:

After the latest CPI inflation report, the Wall Street prophets of profits have moved to a higher level of highs as the opiate smoke circles their brains. They have shifted their dialectic from the US economy making a “soft landing” to a new “no-landing” prediction. Read More

02.17.23- And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Fraud!!!
Brian Maher

The United States Government Accountability Office is on the case…

GAO is out to specify the amount of taxpayer monies lost to fraud at the federal level:

Measuring and estimating the extent of fraud is part of broader efforts to improve agencies’ actions to strategically manage fraud risk. The broader work includes putting those measures and estimates in context so that the federal government can effectively use fraud measurement and estimation to enhance its ability to prevent, detect and respond to fraud. Read More

02.16.23- Dr. Jim Willie: Everything Is Breaking
Untold History Channel

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02.15.23- A World Without Finance
Charles Hugh Smith

We will enter a world without finance, and it will be a better world, for the economy will no longer be in thrall to the derangement and inequality of parasitic, predatory finance.

A world without finance is currently unimaginable, because finance is now synonymous with financialization. In this context, finance no longer refers to longstanding mechanisms that grease commerce such as short-term commercial debt (purchase orders, etc.) or long-term debt to finance the construction of new assets (mortgages, etc.) Read More

02.14.23- Don't Let Balloons Distract You From The Global Economic Collapse
Fabian Ommar

We’re only two months into 2023, and so much water has already passed under the bridge. All I can say is, what a year this is shaping up to be. Is it just me, or does anyone else feels the same? 

To anyone still involved with the Chinese balloon drama, let me remind you that the U.S. (and the entire world, in fact) was invaded by China long ago. Products and dopamine-inducing apps, farmland acquisition, shady investments, and government collusion in some places and continents, and so on are all evidence of this. Read More

02.13.23- What Crappy Beer Demand Tells Us About The Economy
Rachel Premack

U.S. beer shipment to wholesalers declined 14.1% in December 2022 compared to the year prior, according to a Wells Fargo note published on Jan. 27. Compared to 2020, shipping volume is down 19.4%. We saw the lowest volume since 2012 in December. 

It’s not as clear as saying that people simply don’t want beer, or that consumers are becoming more budget-conscious. There are a few factors afoot here. Read More

02.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: One Flew Over the Greenie's Nest
Larry C. Johnson

Western societies are in a race to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Greenies claim technology currently exists to reach net zero, is affordable, and is not an economy wrecker. The elites want a first-generation green power grid relying on renewable wind turbines, solar panels, and power storage batteries to entirely phase out fossil fuel or nuclear power plants. Also, replacing the internal combustion engine with electric motors powered by lithium batteries. The problem with renewable energy is it is intermittent and not scalable.  Read More

02.10.23- Money and recession
Alasdair Macleod

How reliable is the link between money supply growth and the economic outlook?

Monetarists are warning now that money supply has stopped growing and even turned negative, so we are heading for a recession. This article examines the position for US dollar M2 money supply and the prospects for the US economy.

But monetary growth, or the lack of it, doesn’t only affect GDP, but a large element of economic activity which is not included in it, principally financial activities, and the acquisition of assets such as property. Read More

02.09.23- Crash Alert
John Rubino

Time to raise serious cash? 

Ignore that low unemployment rate. Most forward-looking stats are screaming recession, and the epicenter of the coming quake is plastic. From CNBC:

• U.S. credit card debt jumps 18.5% and hits a record $930.6 billion highs

• For most Americans, inflation and rising interest rates are a one-two punch.
• On the heels of another rate hike this week by the Federal Reserve, credit card annual percentage rates are already near 20%, on average, and set to climb even higher. At the same time, more consumers are leaning on credit to afford increasingly expensive necessities, like food and rent.Read More

02.08.23- Harry Dent Doubles Down: Major Crash for Equities in Third Phase,
While Bitcoin Skyrockets to $780K
Daniela Cambone

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02.07.23- Where’s Oil Going?
James Rickards

Where are oil prices going? That’s one of the most frequently asked questions (and most difficult to answer) in markets today.

A bull case can be made on the basis of persistent inflation, shortages due in part to the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration’s war on oil and natural gas and the reopening of China after the worst of the pandemic. Read More

02.06.23- Lose-Lose
James Howard Kunstler

“The White House has taken the entire West in such a direction and speed of triumphalism, arrogance and “egregious” imbecility that there is no going back or reversal possible without a total defeat of the official narrative and the consequent eternal shame.” — Hugo Dionisio

The New York Times — indicted this week as a chronic purveyer of untruths by no less than their supposed ally, The Columbia Journalism Review — is lying to you again this morning. Read More

02.04.23- Don’t Be Stupid – The U.S. Economy Actually LOST 2.5 Million Jobs Last Month
Michael Snyder

I can’t take it anymore.  Fake numbers that are released by the government get turned into fake news by the corporate media, and many Americans don’t even realize that they are being conned.  Major news outlets all over the country are breathlessly trumpeting the “blockbuster jobs report” as if it is a sign from heaven that good economic times are ahead.  We are being told that the U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs last month, but that isn’t true.  Sadly, the truth is that the U.S. economy actually lost 2.5 million jobs in January.  Yes, you read that correctly.  So how in the world does a loss of 2.5 million jobs become a “gain” of 517,000 jobs? Read More

02.03.23- You Think the Global Economy Is Brightening? Beware: The Big Hit Is Yet to Come
Dr. Thorsten Polleit

Relief is spreading among economic analysts and stock market experts. Energy prices are decreasing noticeably. The energy supply this winter seems secure; in Europe, government support for consumers and producers is available if needed. China is turning away from its zero-covid policy, and production is ramping up again. High goods price inflation is still a major concern for consumers and producers, but central banks are delivering at least some interest rate hikes to hopefully reduce currency devaluation. So should we bid farewell to crisis and recession worries? Unfortunately, no. Read More

02.02.23- Legendary ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry issues an ominous warning after the latest stock market rally: ‘Sell.’
Will Daniel

After a dismal 2022, the stock market has had a red-hot start to the year, with the S&P 500 soaring over 6% in January and tech stocks having their best month since 2001. But Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager best known for predicting and profiting from the collapse of the housing market in 2007 and 2008, is predicting a dark turn.

“Sell,” he wrote in a one-word, since-deleted tweet on Tuesday. The missive came just hours ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its latest interest rate decision, and Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated press conference. Read More

02.01.23- Cardboard box demand plunging at rates unseen since the Great Recession
Rachel Premack

Demand and output for cardboard boxes and other packaging material fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to data released by the American Forest & Paper Association and Fibre Box Association on Friday.

It’s the latest indicator that consumer demand is eroding following the pandemic. Dwindling savings, inflation, rising interest rates and fears of a recession may all be swaying consumers to spend less. Read More

01.31.23- Markets Haven't Accounted for
an Escalation in Ukraine
Clint Siegner

It will soon be a year since Russian forces invaded Ukraine. The U.S. has provided Ukraine nearly $100 billion in weapons, cash, and humanitarian assistance. The sanctions imposed on Russia may be even tougher now than during the Cold War.

Despite these things, investors in the U.S. don't seem to be paying much attention to rising geopolitical risks at present.

That may soon change. Read More

01.30.23- People We Should Know:
Nouriel Roubini
John Rubino

Credible gloom and doom

Nouriel Roubini has one of those resumes that inspire skepticism -- because no one should be able to pack that much high-level work into one lifetime. He has, at various times, been associated with Harvard, the IMF, the Fed, the World Bank, the Council of Economic Advisors, the US Treasury, New York University, and (apparently his day job) Roubini Macro Associates LLC, an economic consultancy.Read More

01.28.23- We're Close To A Death Spiral In The Financial System
John Rubino

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01.27.23- Collapsing Real Estate Market
James Wesley Rawles

Today, in lieu of my usual economics and investing news and commentary, I’d like to briefly expound a bit on my view of the collapsing real estate market in the United States.

I’ll begin by mentioning something published in Investment Watchblog that I found linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: US Median Home Price Drops 12% in Six Months – Largest Drop Since 2009. Please take the time to read that article. Read More

01.26.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: In Ukraine, it appears America will soon be arming both side’s combatants
Andrea Widburg

I happen to be one who believes that the escalating war in Ukraine is entirely Biden’s fault, that the current Ukraine government is completely corrupt, and that the entire thing, which has seen tens of thousands of Ukrainian deaths and the destruction of large swaths of that country, has become a profitable boondoggle for politicians and military contractors. Call me cynical or naïve, but that’s where I am. I also think the whole enterprise has taken on a truly hallucinatory quality, exacerbated by the news today: Putin is negotiating to buy abandoned American weapons from Afghanistan while Biden is sending 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. We will have armed both sides to the battle. Read More

01.25.23- Ted Oakley; Expect A Mass Die-Off Of Public Companies Later This Year
Adam Taggart

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01.24.23- 2023: Year of the New Gold Bull
Greg Guenthner

Last week, we discussed the market forces behind the 2022 growth meltdown.

Now that we’ve shaken off the cobwebs, it’s time to look ahead and focus on the stocks and sectors with the best potential to take the lead in 2023’s first quarter – and beyond. Unfortunately, many investors are going to miss these opportunities. Read More

01.23.23- So What’s Replacing the Dollar?
Charles Hugh Smith

We’ve all heard about how the dollar’s days as the world’s leading reserve currency are numbered. Much of the world wants a new monetary system that isn’t based on the dollar.

The U.S. weaponization of the dollar against nations it deems hostile, like Russia, has only intensified the calls for change. What exactly will replace the dollar standard is a matter of debate, but many agree that it’s just a matter of time. It may not happen overnight, but it will happen. Read More

01.21.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: World Economic Forum Calls for Destruction of America’s Middle Class
Kurt Nimmo

Sociopath Chrystia Freeland argues middle class needs to embrace poverty.

I have said this for a long time. The global elite hate you, they want to destroy your standard of living, and reduce you to a serf, a powerless and dispensable carbon emitter.

I dare entitled, no doubt wealthy (she’s in government, after all) Chrystia Freeland to walk the streets of Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, and other cities destroyed by the global elite, and try to sell this recipe for poverty and misery. Freeland would not make it out alive in many neighborhoods. Read More

01.20.23- Say’s Law and Macroeconomic Ignorance
Alasdair Macleod

Probably the greatest error in modern economics was the abandonment of Say’s law, otherwise known as the law of the markets. In a nutshell, it demonstrated that through the division of labour, production is firmly linked to consumption, and the former is tied to the latter through the medium of money and credit.

While there are variations in production outputs of individual goods, in free markets there can never be a general glut. It was this that Keynes had to disprove in order to create a role for the state, intervening to make up for the supposed deficiencies of free markets. While reasoned analysis shows that Keynes failed to disprove Say’s law, he managed to convince the mainstream establishment that he had actually succeeded. Read More

01.19.23- The Global Outlook For 2023
Dennis Miller

January is time to look ahead for the year. Sadly, way too much depends on the Federal Reserve and world central banks.

Michael Howell writes:

“It has been a bleak year for many investors. Global investors have lost $23tn of wealth…so far in 2022. …. That is equivalent to 22 per cent of global gross domestic product” Read More

01.18.23- All Quiet (Panic) on the Western Front
Pepe Escobar

Lights! Action! Reset!

The World Economic Forum (WEF)’s Davos Freak Show is back in business on Monday.

The mainstream media of the collective West, in unison, will be spinning non-stop, for a week, all the “news” that are fit to print to extol new declinations of The Great Reset, re-baptized The Great Narrative, but actually framed as a benign offer by “stakeholder capitalism”. These are the main planks of the shady platform of a shady NGO registered in Cologny, a tony Geneva suburb. Read More

01.17.23- The easiest 833x return
you will ever make
Simon Black

At precisely 8:13PM eastern time on the evening of October 28, 2003, a lonely 19-year old schoolboy took to the Internet to complain about the latest love interest who had left him dejected and angry.

“Jessica,” he wrote to the precisely zero people who paid attention to his LiveJournal blog, “is a bitch. I need to think of something to take my mind off her. I need to think of something to occupy my mind. Easy enough, now I just need an idea.” Read More

01.16.23- A Long Way to Fall: Stock Market’s Bottom is Hardly Even Within Sight
David Haggith

When several of the big money-driving voices in financial media and major financial institutions start saying the same thing I am, I start to wonder about myself. Or is it just becoming that obvious now? Some of the biggest names on Wall Street are now saying the stock market is delusional and is headed for a much deeper fall. Read More

01.14.23- Real Wages Fall for the Twenty-First Month as Rent and Food Prices Keep Rising
Ryan McMaken

The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new price inflation data today, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in fifteen months. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 6.5 percent year over year during December, before seasonal adjustment. That’s the twenty-second month in a row of inflation above the Fed’s arbitrary 2-percent inflation target, and it’s fifteen months in a row of price inflation above 6.0 percent. Read More

01.13.23- We Won’t Be Fooled Again – Inflation Is Most Definitely Not “Under Control”
Michael Snyder

Inflation is going down!  Let’s all celebrate!  We all knew that when the Federal Reserve began aggressively hiking interest rates it would have an impact on inflation.  Higher rates have caused a new housing crash, they have crushed the tech industry, and they have sparked the biggest wave of layoffs that we have seen since the Great Recession.  We have entered a significant economic downturn, so it was inevitable that the annual rate of inflation would start to moderate.  But as I will explain below, that doesn’t mean that inflation is now “under control”.  The real rate of inflation is much higher than we are being told, and people all over the country are being absolutely crushed by the rising cost of living. Read More

01.12.23- Dip in Mortgage Rates Not Slowing Housing Bust 2: Mortgage Lenders Sing the Blues
Wolf Richter

It just keeps getting worse. 

Mortgage applications to purchase a home are a forward-looking indicator of where home sales volume will be. Existing home sales that closed in November already plunged by 35% year-over-year, the 16th month in a row of year-over-year declines, making for a historic plunge. And mortgage applications went into the wrong direction from there, despite the dip in mortgage rates. Read More

01.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Lemmings Will be Lemmings:
Awaken or Slumber
Nicholas Creed

As my UK trip draws to a close, I am struck by what a bizarre string of experiences I have had throughout this visit.

I have been overwhelmed with joy upon being reunited with family and friends. Yet I have had and have no more tears to shed. I have felt my soul being nourished from hugging loved ones, being close to them once again, enjoying their company, and reminiscing about the little things. Read More

01.10.23- Scammed!
Jeffrey Tucker

The incredible meltdown of FTX and the Bernie Madoff scam long before should tell us a thing or two about how much the government will protect us against scams. It does not and will not.

Too often, government itself is part of that scam.

That certainly seems true in the above two cases. And perhaps this is why Sam Bankman-Fried is being treated with kid gloves, with his $250 million bail not involving one bit of cash. Read More

01.09.23- It’s Worse Than it Looks: Beneath the Surface the Bottom is Falling Out, and People are Jumping out of Windows
David Haggith

Surveying just the news that started this year in The Daily Doom, things look bad for the US economy. Worse still, if you dig beneath the few rosy headlines that did greet the year in lighter tones, the bottom falls out quickly, as it does when stepping out of a high-rise window.

This weekend, for example, I’m going to be working on a deep dive in one of my special posts for patrons into the confusing swirl of conflicting employment news that sent stocks soaring skyward today. It was really far shakier than the market wants to believe it heard. Read More

01.07.23- Is There an
Economic Bomb Cyclone Ahead?
Christopher Chantrill

First of all, nobody knows what will happen next with the economy. On the one hand our Democratic friends seem to think that their omnibus spending bill and glorious Inflation Reduction Act are already steering us to the green and pleasant land of woke Jerusalem.

But then you have Jeffrey A. Tucker saying that the end of negative interest rates ain’t gonna be a walk in the park. Sez he:

Most people under the age of 40 have no financial experience in a world of positive interest rates for most dates of maturity… When Ben Bernanke pushed his new policy [back in 2008], he was flipping all economic and financial logic on its head. Read More

01.06.23- Here’s What Happens in 2023
Brian Maher

The calendar has scrolled to 2023… for good … or ill.

As a financial newsletter, we are duty-bound to hazard our annual market forecast — such as it is.

So today we fetch our crystal ball from storage, blow away the dust… and gaze for images of the year ahead.

How will the economy fare in 2023? Where will the stock market end the year? Gold? Oil? Bitcoin? Read More

01.05.23- Recession Or Inflation...
Pick Yer Poison!
Bill Blain

“Sometimes the stock market is quite investment-oriented, and other times it’s almost totally a casino, a gambling parlor — and that existed to an extraordinary degree in the last couple of years, encouraged by Wall Street.”

What is the Fed really thinking? They will probably er on the side of lower rates to avoid recession, running the risk of entrenched wage growth. Soft landings are the stuff of myth! How it effects the global economy is critical. Read More

01.04.23- Dollar’s demise about to
explode Asia’s 2023
William Pesek

Negative growth, high inflation, unsustainable debt and poison politics in the US will all drive investors to dump the dollar

TOKYO — If you want to know how worried Asian officials are over a sliding US dollar this year, look no further than the frantic scene at Bank of Japan (BOJ) headquarters. Read More

01.03.23-Michael Burry: "US Is In Recession, Fed Will Cut And Will Cause Another Inflation Spike"
Tyler Durden

In the waning days of 2022, one of the most bearish (and accurate, at least as far as last year was concerned) strategists, SocGen's resident permabear Albert Edwards, laid out what he thinks will be the big surprise of 2023, which will be "a return to deflation fears as headline CPI inflation drops close to, or likely below zero. Investors are already anticipating recession and have an unusually strong preference for bonds." Read More

01.02.23- Free-Market Capitalism is the Next American Economy
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.

America is in the midst of an identity crisis, and it’s probably not the kind you’d think. Our nation is wrecked by an abysmal economy and unhappy people losing confidence in their country. In such unhappiness, people on both sides of the political aisle too often propose “solutions” that grant the government more control of our lives, even though that control is usually the source of the problem.

The American experiment has paved the way for millions to escape poverty and build a better life via a free-market system with a constitutional republic that encourages innovation and results in more human flourishing than ever before. Read More