02.21.25- The Coming Monetary Reset And Trump's Impact On Gold & The Dollar
Doug Casey

International Man: At $1.1 trillion, annualized interest on the US federal debt is now the second-largest budget item—and is on track to become the largest.

Meanwhile, long-term interest rates are climbing, even as the Fed lowers short-term rates.

Can the US government keep kicking the can down the road? Or will Trump have to reset the system? Read More

02.20.25- This Is Why The Bitter Feud Between President Trump And “President Z” Has Just Brought Us Even Closer To Nuclear War
Michael Snyder

All of a sudden, sending European ground troops into Ukraine has become a very hot topic.  In fact, the British are openly discussing the possibility of doing this quite soon.  Of course the Russians have already warned that if the British send ground troops into Ukraine, military targets inside the UK will become legitimate targets.

Needless to say, the moment the Russians start conducting military strikes inside the UK, the U.S. would be forced to intervene and we would be right on the brink of nuclear war. Read More

02.19.25- Conspiracy Theorists Were Right About Everything – Now What?
Brandon Smith

For many years alternative economists and “conspiracy theorists” have argued that, according to the evidence, there has been an organized criminal cabal operating a long running agenda to exploit and eventually destroy western culture. We have suggested that much of this agenda was being funded with our own tax dollar while using government institutions and NGOs as vehicles for social engineering. Read More

02.18.25- A Game of Chicken
Bill Bonner

As we all know, the US is headed for a fiscal crisis. Like having a ‘heart attack,’ says Ray Dalio.

The only way to prevent it is to make dramatic policy changes now — not just to ‘improper payments’ to federal bureaucrats, but also serious cuts to the firepower industry. Read More

Bureaucracy Is One Of The Central Pillars Of Our Economy, And It Is Starting To Crumble (Jobless Claims In D.C. Up 36% In 1 Week!)
Michael Snyder

One of the central pillars of the U.S. economy is melting down right in front of our eyes.  We spend gigantic mountains of borrowed money to maintain the largest and most bloated bureaucracy in the entire history of the planet.  More than 3 million workers are employed directly by the federal government, more than 7 million workers are employed by private institutions that rely on government funding or government contracts, and more than 20 million workers are employed by state and local governments. Read More

02.15.25- Darkness Dying
James Howard Kunstler

“The nature of the NGO scams is to have a cause that sounds philanthropic, like ‘Save the Orphans of Sadville’ and then they pocket the money and zero actual orphans are helped.” — Elon Musk

The exorcism of the USA just keeps revving up. You can tell by the number of revolutions-per-minute Elizabeth Warren’s head spins while she spews pea soup at the cameras. Who knew what a demon-infested slough USA Management Central was? And yes, I would like some insight as to how humble civil servants like Liz Warren accrue a $12-million fortune . . . and $30-million for Samantha Power (ex-USAID-chief) . . . and more than $150-million for Nancy Pelosi. Could it be as simple as just good stock-picking? (Is that how they spend their time?) Read More

02.14.25- 2025 Economic Predictions already Coming true on Schedule
David Haggith

My ten 2025 economic predictions are coming in as expected so far with today’s news advancing the first two of them—a rapidly developing recession and a stock-market crash—along with another projections that would have been on the list, except that it was last year’s prediction, and already started happening last year, which is another return to rising inflation. Not hard to predict what is already happening, so I left that off the list. Read More

02.13.25- Trump’s Microcap Renaissance
James Altucher

In 2008, the U.S. government entered into a strange relationship with one of America’s largest companies.

It was about to go bankrupt.

And… the government swooped in to save it. All at the taxpayer’s expense.

Fast forward to October 1, 2024… Read More

02.12.25- Futures, Rates Flat Ahead Of High-Stakes CPI Report
Tyler Durden

US equity futures are flat, with yields and the dollar modestly higher ahead of this morning's US CPI reports (full preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are unchanged, while Nasdaq futures rise 0.2% with Mag 7 stocks mostly flat, except for a big swing in TSLA premarket which now trades trades +1% after sliding -2% earlier amid rising competition from BYD. European stocks are at a third consecutive record high, supported by positive earnings news. An index of Asian shares advanced. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year adding a basis point to 4.55% as the US Dollar ticks higher; Powell’s testimony yesterday was largely in line with January FOMC and current market pricing (no urgency for the Fed to cut). Read More

02.11.25- Hostile Takeover of Canada
Eric S. Margolis

Canadians are among the world’s calmest, most polite, and gracious people.  They are also, in my experience, peaceful, honest and modest. You never see them angry – except for now.

Donald Trump, with his absurd megalomaniac claims to Greenland, Canada, Panama and now Gaza, has managed to do what no one else has done.  He has made the United States hated across Canada, even in usually pro-American Alberta. Read More

02.10.25- How China’s DeepSeek Could Disrupt Financial Markets and Global Stability
Doug Casey

International Man: China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence (AI) platform has stunned the world, outperforming US AI models while using just a fraction of their resources. Some are even calling it the “OpenAI killer.”

What’s your take on this development?

Doug Casey: Technology—all technologies—inevitably become better and cheaper over time. That trend has been in motion, at an accelerating rate, since at least the end of the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago the hyperbolic curve has gone vertical. Read More

02.08.25- The Crises Yet to Come
Charles Hugh Smith

"Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. 

That the Trump Reformation / Counter-Reformation is disrupting various nodes of the status quo is viewed as an existential crisis by many. The choice between Reformation / Counter-Reformation seems to cleave on this basic perception: the status quo in its 2024 configuration was ably serving the common good, or the the status quo in its 2024 configuration had veered from the basics of accountability, efficiency and transparency into self-serving self-righteousness, defending its sclerosis and inefficiency via political correctness and narrative control. Read More

02.07.25- How China’s DeepSeek Could Disrupt Financial Markets and Global Stability
Doug Casey

International Man: China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence (AI) platform has stunned the world, outperforming US AI models while using just a fraction of their resources. Some are even calling it the “OpenAI killer.”

What’s your take on this development?

Doug Casey:Technology—all technologies—inevitably become better and cheaper over time. That trend has been in motion, at an accelerating rate, since at least the end of the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago the hyperbolic curve has gone vertical. Read More

02.06.25- Trade Wars Bring Pain… And Opportunity
James Rickards

It’s game on for the trade wars.

After months of threatening tariffs on U.S. trading partners during his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump has now taken definitive action on that front. On Saturday, February 1, Trump announced that the U.S. was imposing 25% tariffs on all goods imported to the U.S. from Mexico and Canada (with the exception of Canadian energy, which was tariffed at 10%) and additional 10% tariffs on all goods imported from China. Read More

02.05.25- Ferris Bueller’s “Crisis Bubble”
Greg Guenthner

Markets move pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss ‘em.

Ferris Bueller wasn’t a trader (forgive me for adapting the iconic movie quote). But if Ferris ever had the urge to dip his toes into the markets, he’d probably have the perfect mindset to deal with this noisy, volatile news cycle.

For the past two weeks, we’ve watched the same situation play out. Here’s how it goes: Read More

02.04.25- This trade war might be the straw that breaks the US dollar’s back.
James Hickman

It was early spring in the year 1171 AD when Byzantine Emperor Manuel I Komnenos decided to go to war against his much smaller ally– Venice. And the historical record shows that it was a really bad idea.

The Byzantine Empire was still a vast and powerful state by the late 12th century. But it was becoming obvious to anyone paying attention that they were in serious decline. Read More

02.03.25- Are They Positioning Themselves
For A Pre-Determined Scenario In Which
There Will Be A Massive Stock Market Crash?
Michael Snyder

Do they know something that we do not?  All of a sudden, hedge funds are betting billions of dollars that the stock market is going to crash.  If they are wrong, they will lose a ton of money, but if they are correct they will make absolutely enormous profits.  So why are they feeling so confident that a stock market collapse is in our future?  Without a doubt, the real economy has been moving in the wrong direction for quite some time, but for years there have been relentless efforts to keep the financial markets propped up.  Could it be possible that there is a scenario in which the financial markets will simply be allowed to fail at some point? Read More

02.01.25- Rickards: A U.S. Recession is Coming
James Rickards

The new Trump administration is off to a fast start. All of the key nominations for the Trump cabinet and White House staff have been made, the Senate confirmation hearings (where needed) have mostly been held and some of the key positions have already been filled. Trump signed a large pile of Day One executive orders over the course of January 20 and 21 immediately after the inauguration. More executive orders are in the pipeline. Read More

01.31.25- The End of America’s Financial Contract
Sean King

Ah, the 1980s. I feel bad for people who didn’t grow up during that decade.

America was the undisputed King of the World.

I watched Lawrence Taylor beat up opposing quarterbacks every autumnal Sunday of my youth. Joe Montana won four Super Bowls. Some guy named Bo Jackson was an All-Star in both football and baseball. Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, and Donnie Baseball were the diamond’s elite. Wayne Gretzky rewrote the record books in ice hockey. Magic and Larry dominated the NBA, soon to hand it over to Michael Jordan. Mike Tyson was a 22-year-old heavyweight champion. Ayrton Senna and Mario Andretti were racing royalty. Read More

01.30.25- The Release of DeepSeek AI Humiliates Western Companies and Forces Americans to See the Superiority of China
Andrew Anglin

For years, I’ve been attempting to explain that everything is better in China than in the United States. The gap is so massive that if an American raised on cartoonish propaganda about their birthplace as ‘the greatest country on earth’ visits China, it can trigger a serious personal crisis. It simply does not compute. Unsurprisingly, Americans who have never been to China struggle to process this reality and often revert to mindless claims like “China is a third-world country” or “Chinese people don’t have any freedom”. Read More

01.28.25- The U.S. Empire Is Entering
Its Final Inning
Willem Middelkoop

View Video

01.27.25- DeepSeek Pulls Rug Out On Nvidia, ASML
Tyler Durden

There is only one topic on traders' minds this morning that threatens to upend the multi-year AI bull trend driving chip stocks to record highs: the (extremely) cheaper Chinese DeepSeek response to OpenAI's ChatGPT, as noted in an overnight piece titled "Goldman Asks If China's DeepSeek is AI's Sputnik Moment." Read More

01.25.25- The Health Sector Is in a Panic
Tom Woods

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) created a panic this week when it announced a pause in “study sections.” Study sections, says Vinay Prasad, are “groups of mediocre scientists who decide which grants are funded.” Read More

01.24.25- Mastering the Art of Speculation and Today’s Top Opportunities
Doug Casey

International Man: Let’s begin by defining our terms. How would you define a speculator?

Doug Casey: The word “speculator” is generally misused and poorly defined. Let’s put it in context, along with some related terms that it’s usually confused with.

First, what is a speculator? A speculator is someone who capitalizes on distortions in the market. These distortions are mostly caused by the actions of government, so most are political in nature. But distortions can also be caused by natural disasters or aberrations of public psychology.Read More

01.23.25- How to Stop the BRICS Nations from Abandoning the Dollar
Patrick Barron

The US government is aghast that there is a new grouping of nations that seeks to form an alternative to the US trade bloc and trade settlement system that uses the dollar. These nations have been driven to this extreme, time-consuming, and difficult project by clueless US leaders who have imposed sanctions on Russian assets (literally stealing them) and have denied Russia and other nations from using the SWIFT messaging system for trade settlement. Read More

01.22.25- Welcome to The Trump Crypto Era
Adam Sharpe

On Saturday morning, I awoke to very strange news.

On Friday night around 9pm EST President Trump launched a new cryptocurrency.

When Trump first posted the news on Truth Social and X.com, people thought his accounts must have been hacked. But somehow, it was real. Read More

01.21.25- The Competency Crisis Proliferating The West
Alastair Crooke

The essayist and military strategist, Aurelien, has written a paper entitled: The Strange Defeat (original in French). The ‘strange defeat’ being that of Europe’s ‘curious’ inability to understand Ukraine or its military mechanics.

Aurelien highlights the strange lack of realism by which the West has approached the crisis — Read More

01.20.25- Druckenmiller Declares: U.S. Going From 'The Most Anti-Business Administration In History To The Opposite'
Tyler Durden

Duquesne Family Office Chairman Stanley Druckenmiller stated Monday that "animal spirits" have returned to the market, fueled by "giddy" CEOs anticipating Trump's return to the White House. Speaking to CNBC, the billionaire investor argued that the U.S. economy is shifting from "the most anti-business administration" in history to the most business-friendly administration. Read More

01.18.25- Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn
Quoth the Raven's Fringe Finance

A worst case scenario probably won't happen. But hey, it might.

Over the last year or two, I’ve really tried to take a holistic approach to markets and consider the unconscionable idea that I may not be right about everything all the time.

I know—beyond unfathomable to even consider, right? Read More

01.17.25- December CPI: The Good, the Bad, and the Expensive
Mike Maharrey

Have you ever gone to a movie everybody raved about and thought, ‘Meh. I don’t get all the hype?’

That’s how I felt reading the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

I mean, it wasn’t awful.

But it wasn’t good either. Read More

01.16.25- What If Tech, the Market and the State Are No Longer Solutions?
Charles Hugh Smith

If we study the problems outside the force-field of mythological beliefs, we find that there are no systemic solutions, there are only partial, local solutions.  

The status quo rests on a foundational belief that all problems, regardless of their nature, can be solved by technology, the market or the government (i.e. the state), or some combination of these three. Read More

01.15.25- The Big Bipolar Breakout
Greg Guenthner

It feels like a lifetime ago…

Trump had just won the election. Bullish momentum thrusts were popping up left and right. Small-caps and the major averages were breaking out. Everywhere you looked, stocks were posting new highs.Read More

01.14.25- Full Speed Ahead
Bill Bonner

They argue over the details and often duck real differences. But it didn’t matter what song they played in the bar. When the icy water rushed through the corridors, the Titanic was doomed.

We came back from snowy Ireland to snow covered Maryland. Read More

01.13.25- THE DEEPER DIVE: Will the Stock Market Dive in '25?
David Haggith

My big economic prediction for 2025 is here!

The stock market’s story for 2025 is going to be the story of the bond market. And the story of the bond market is going to be the story of inflation. It’s a continuation of the same old story I’ve been telling; but it’s more complicated this time. So, first—so you can fully grasp the predictable dynamics—the …Read More

01.11.25- Rational Despair
MN Gordon

The first full week of 2025 is coming to an end. And the final days of President Biden’s time in office cannot come soon enough. After four years of mega deficits and mega meddling, the economy and stock market have been crudely distorted. They’re both bloated to the max.

President-elect Trump wants to keep both the stock market and economic levitation going. Asset prices and low unemployment provide a superficial appearance of good health. Trump’s a reality TV guy. He wants things to look good. He wants to have rising stock indexes and low unemployment to point to as validation of his policies. Read More

01.10.25- Positioned For a Historic Crash
James Rickards

Earlier this week, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election was officially certified by lawmakers in a joint session of Congress.

Kamala Harris presided over the ceremony as president of the Senate and faced the awkward task as she formally certified Trump’s victory and her own loss. Read More

01.09.25- “Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025
Lance Roberts

“Curb Your Enthusiasm,” which ran its series finale last year, starred Larry David as an over-the-top version of himself in a comedy series that showed how seemingly trivial details of day-to-day life can precipitate a catastrophic chain of events. The show never failed to deliver a laugh but also reminded me that unexpected events can derail the most certain of outcomes. Read More

01.08.25- Pressing for Yet More
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.

Reliable valuation measures are enormously informative about both long-term investment returns and the potential depth of market losses over the completion of any given market cycle. At the same time, valuations are of strikingly little use in projecting market outcomes over shorter segments of the market cycle. Investor psychology – the desire to speculate, or the aversion to risk – has a much stronger impact, which is why we also have to attend to factors including market internals, sentiment, short-term overextension / compression, and monetary policy (while unfavorable market internals dominate monetary easing, favorable internals amplify it). Read More

01.07.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The true story of how Joe Biden tried to ruin your Christmas holiday (and is still trying)
James Hickman

If you’re looking for an easy example of almost everything wrong with this government, let me introduce Exhibit A:

It started almost exactly a year ago. It was January 2, 2024, and we wrote to you about a new law that had just taken effect called the Corporate Transparency Act, or the CTA. Read More

01.06.25- Doug Casey’s Top Prediction for 2025
Doug Casey

International Man: Looking at the intersection of finance, economics, politics, and culture, what is your most significant prediction for 2025?

What major event or trend should people prepare for that most are currently overlooking?

Doug Casey: The trends that appeared, seemingly against all odds, in 2024 are going to accelerate. Read More

01.04.25- Trump’s Plan to End Currency War 3.0
James Rickards

There has been a lot reported in recent days about the return of currency wars. With Trump 2.0 about to begin, let’s review his last term and what to expect in the second.

Trump badly bungled his transition after first being elected president in 2016. He was not ready with a long list of loyal appointees. Many of his senior appointments such as Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State, James Mattis as Secretary of Defense, and John Kelly as Chief of Staff secretly disliked Trump but accepted their roles as so-called “adult supervision” around the supposedly reckless Trump. Read More

01.03.25- 10 Stock Market Predictions for 2025
Sean Williams

Here's what to expect from the stock market, along with some of Wall Street's hottest trends and most influential businesses, in the new year.

Stepping into a new year, investors have a lot to be thankful for. In 2024, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 0.11%), benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.43%), and technology-driven Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.68%) all reached multiple record-closing highs. Read More

01.02.25- Recession Watch: Broke Consumers, Tanking Houses
John Rubino

The money Americans saved during the pandemic is gone. And for many, that now means borrowing to make ends meet.

Credit card debt set to hit record levels as consumer holiday spending rises

(CNBC) - Heading into the holidays, many Americans were already saddled with record-breaking credit card debt. And yet, consumer spending is set to reach a fresh high this season. Read More

01.01.25- My Predictions for 2025? You Don’t Want to Know.
Rick Ackerman

I’m making no bold predictions for 2025, since getting it right in these way-too-interesting times is like trying to guess when a ticking time bomb will explode. When it does, the shrapnel will pop an economic bubble so pumped with folly, greed and hubris that only a Wall Street shill or a madman could believe the soft-landing story. Made-up statistics to support this fantasy are being peddled aggressively nonetheless by the likes of Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal and a few other mainstream sources whose editors evidently are incapable of imagining what a hard landing might look like. Read More

12.31.24- Yellen Says US Will Hit Debt Ceiling Mid-January, Forcing Treasury To Employ 'Extraordinary Measures'
Tom Ozimek

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the United States will hit its statutory debt ceiling around the middle of January, a development she said will prompt the Treasury to resort to “extraordinary measures” to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. Read More

12.30.24- Stock Market Crash in 2025! Stocks Have NEVER Been as Precarious as they Are Now
David Haggith

Stock market crash 2025 may be sledding this way, while Santa is looking a little past his expiration day...

The last time I said the stock market was this precariously poised to crash was in early 2020. A month later, the market dove headlong over a cliff, and it took all the king’s horses and all the king’s men to put the market and economy back together again. Of course, that may not have happened if we didn’t, about a month after I wrote that statement, experience the biggest forced, worldwide, economic shutdown in history under political dictates. Read More

12.28.24- The World Order Is Dangerously In Flux
James Howard Kunstler

"A core reflex in these decades of postmodern insanity was constant rejection of things we thought we knew in favor of New, Improved Beliefs packaged from above.”

- Matt Taibbi, Racket News

I would guess that you’re feeling as if anything might happen now. It’s hard to rule out even the possibility that we could all be vaporized before moving onto the next mundane chore of the day. The world order is dangerously in flux. Read More

12.27.24- US Stock Futures Drop As 10Y Yield Trades Near 2024 High
Tyler Durden

US equity futures declined after Thursday’s muted session on Wall Street, while markets in Europe and Asia advanced in muted holiday trading as the year draws to a close. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were down 0.3%, after ending Thursday flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2% in quiet post-holiday session as mixed jobless claims data did little to change bets on the Fed’s policy outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a seven-month high around 4.60%, and the dollar was steady, on track for its best year since 2015. Oil reversed Thursday's losses and was set to gain.  The macro calendar is quiet: we get the advance goods trade balance, as well as wholesale and retail inventories. Read More

12.26.24- Will Russia Collapse in 2025?
Paul Craig Roberts

Is Putin’s Government Trying to Be a 19th century liberal government in the brutal evil world of the 21st century?

I raise this question not only because Putin has been fighting in his gentlemanly way a war on Russian territory in Ukraine for six months longer without yet winning than it took Stalin’s Red Army to defeat the formidable German Wehrmacht in World War II, and still Putin has not cleared Ukrainian troops from the small Donbas area or from the Ukrainian invasion of Russian Kursk.  Does anyone remember when Putin declared that Russia would never again fight a war on its own territory? Putin has been fighting a war on Russia’s own territory for longer than the Soviet offensive took to drive the German invaders out of Russia.  Moreover, Putin and Lavrov seem to be relying on Trump, not the Russian military, to bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end by agreeing to a mutual security treaty. Read More

12.25.24- It's A Wonderful Life and A Political One
Chris Powell

Frank Capra’s 1946 film, “It’s a Wonderful Life,” to be broadcast again Christmas Eve at 8 p.m. by NBC television, is loved most for its personal message of discovery at Christmas: that its hero’s life has been, unbeknownst to him, crucial to his family, friends, community, and even his country.

Such general encouragement may seem more needed than ever these days; indeed, this may be, sadly, the cause of the film’s popularity. But “It’s a Wonderful Life” may be more important still for its overlooked lesson in democratic economics, a lesson arising from the struggle for survival of a combination credit union and savings bank, the Bailey Building & Loan in the Everytown of Bedford Falls.Read More

12.24.24- Big Money
Bill Bonner

We are watching a struggle between money and power. Money wants a freer economy... with the usual grift and corruption. Power wants what it always wants — more power.

Forbes:

Biden forgives $4.28 billion in student debt for 54,900 borrowers

The relief is a result of fixes the U.S. Department of Education made to the once-troubled Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. Read More

12.23.24- National Self-Perception
Jeff Thomas

“This above all: to thine own self be true.”

Bill Shakespeare had a talent for phrasing basic truths well, and this quote is no exception. (Even if you lie to others, don’t lie to yourself, or you’re in real trouble.)

Much has been said about the American self-image, going back to its inception as an upstart nation that imagined it could succeed as a republic, as Athens had failed to do. Read More

12.21.24- The Correction Is Not Over Yet
David Brady

FOMC Impact on Gold and Silver Markets

When it comes to the Fed, words speak louder than actions. As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. However, Fed Chair Powell said that the number of rate cuts in 2025 would be just two, down from four in September. This is hawkish, obviously. The markets responded accordingly Read More

12.20.24- Microsoft's $200 Billion Bitcoin Moment
James Altucher

$200 billion can buy a lot of Bitcoin.

That’s the amount of cash Microsoft is sitting on – money that could have made history a few weeks ago.

The crypto world watched with bated breath as Microsoft shareholders faced a decision that would ripple through Wall Street: whether to turn some of that mountain of cash into Bitcoin. Read More

12.19.24- Trump’s Economic Plans
James Rickards

Trump will begin his first 100 days with an emphasis on his economic plans.

His core economic team is already announced including Russell Vought as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative, Kevin Hassett as Director of the National Economic Council, Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce. Read More

12.18.24- Will the New Tariff Coming to Town Put Stocks in the Stockade or Shoot up Inflation?
David Haggith

Ten days ago I published a Deeper Dive featuring a number of interviews with people from the week before, saying a huge blow-off top in the stock market was imminent—huge as in, at least, a 50% plunge. Now, nine days later, the Dow has completed its longest (nine-day) uninterrupted slide since 1978. Did the top come in a soon as the article was published? Read More

12.17.24- Trade Wars Accelerate
Adam Sharp

During Donald Trump’s first term, U.S. tariffs on China increased from 3% in 2016 to 19% by the end of 2020.

As a result, China’s share of the U.S. trade deficit dropped from 47% to 26%. However, it’s worth noting that America’s trade imbalance continued to rise, as production shifted to low-tariff countries such as Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico. Read More

12.16.24- Legendary Investor Sold His US Stocks, Here's Why
Jim Rogers

View Video

12.14.24- A "Spectacular Implosion" In Stocks Is Due Once The Euphoria Ends
Adam Taggart

As we prepare to enter a new year, there's a revived optimism on Wall Street.

Excited in part by the pro-business policies of the incoming Trump administration, stocks are back to trading at record highs and investor and business confidence is rising.

But that said, the average American household is still struggling under a high cost of living, and a labor market that does not seem as robust as we've been told. Read More

12.13.24- The Hardest Retirement Math
Is Also the Most Crucial
Peter Reagan

Inflation – we’re all tired of hearing about it, plenty tired of thinking about it, too. But we have to consider exactly how big a difference inflation makes in our future cost of living.

And it seems like nobody knows exactly how to figure out how much today’s dollars will be worth tomorrow…Everyone agrees (if they’ve thought about it) that retirement planning is a good idea. Read More

12.12.24- The mother of all bubbles
Ruchir Sharma

The US has never been so overhyped, relative to the rest of the world

The writer is chair of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What Went Wrong With Capitalism’ 

The idea of America as an exceptional nation, superior to its rivals and therefore destined to lead the world, seems passé to most observers. In political, diplomatic and military circles, the talk is of a dysfunctional superpower, isolationist abroad and polarised at home. But in the investing world, the term “American exceptionalism” is hotter than ever. Read More

12.11.24- East Vs. West: A Global Dollar Dump Is Inevitable And The US Must Prepare
Brandon Smith

In October of 2024, Russia hosted the annual BRICS Summit in the city of Kazan with the intent to show unity among developing nations and general eastern interests. The Kremlin, a target of severe NATO sanctions since the start of the war in Ukraine, has been effective in solidifying economic guarantees from BRICS partners and circumventing western economic controls. Read More

12.10.24- The Ultimate Hustle Economy
James Hickman

On July 9, 1997, Apple Computer (as the company was then known) was teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.

Its cash reserves were dwindling rapidly. Its losses were mounting. And the once mighty company was just 90 days away from failing. Read More

12.09.24- The Deeper Dive: Some Predict a Major, MAJOR Stock Blow-off is Imminent
David Haggith

Here is how it will blow!

As promised, this weekend’s Deeper Dive will pull together the best bits from a few videos published in The Daily Doom headlines this week about the prospects for an imminent major stock market crash. I’ll include each video and bullet-point the reasons given for believing a major crash is imminent as I go from video to video on what turned out to be a common theme to all of them. Read More

12.07.24- The Peasants’ Revolt 2.0
Mark Gullick

On June 1, 1381, thousands of English rural laborers descended on the capital of London, the first martial event in what would come to be known as the Peasants Revolt. Over 650 years later, a somewhat less bloody rebellion showed itself in the same city, these latter-day peasants facing similar fiscal provocation to their 14th-century forerunners. Tens of thousands of small farmers descended on London to protest the latest in a series of government policies seemingly designed to destroy the farming industry in Britain, at least in its current form. Read More

12.06.24- A Critical Time for America
Justin O Smith

Nearly half of America is jubilant with thoughts that their political savior has arrived and nearly another half of America is gnawing, spitting and gnashing their teeth in violent, spasmodic angst in their certainty that a new Hitler has risen in the country to make their lives a living hell, while the rest of us are simply watching and waiting to see what the next shoe to drop will be and just how much of our liberty will be trashed and violated under President Trump, no matter how much the economy may or may not improve. Read More

12.05.24- The Looming Debt Crisis: Is America Following the Path of Collapsed Empires?
Nick Giambruno

Debt can topple even the most powerful empires.

Whether it’s Rome, Spain, France, Britain, or the Soviet Union, excessive debt has played a critical role in their decline.

The typical pattern in these examples of collapsing empires is: Read More

12.04.24- The Debt Monster and the Big Men
who will Fight it
David Haggith

Trump has a man for fighting debt, but Trump also has an iron-clad record of creating debt and lots of it everywhere he goes.

Government spending (and debt) keep smashing over new milestones. Today we get a report that says October clawed its way to the highest monthly deficit in history with the exception of that one Covid lockdown year from hell. Bottom line: The Biden government spent $257-billion more than it took in. So, we’re now piling up over a quarter-trillion per month! Read More

12.03.24- Are We Headed For A Economic Collapse?! Silver Prices Will GO PARABOLIC!
Adam Button

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12.02.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The plan to set US special forces on Mexican drug cartels — and why experts say
it won’t work
Joe Barnes

The Jalisco New Generation Cartel is among the most powerful of the Mexican gangs that could offer real opposition to any military attempt to interfere in the narcotics trade

Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Read More

11.30.24- The end of globalization:
forecast calls for pain
Rick Mills

He who has the commodities rules the world

The first great wave of globalization ended with World War I, and was followed by trade wars and deep depressions throughout the interwar period. Although trade integration resumed after World War II – facilitating the reconstruction of Western Europe and Japan – its scope remained limited. It was not until the late 1980s and early 1990s that the next great wave of globalization began.(Project Syndicate, ‘The Dangerous Retreat Into Protectionism’, May 21, 2024) Read More

11.29.24- The Zealous Pursuit of Retail Therapy
MN Gordon

Something remarkable happened following the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the USA. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) topped the 44,000-point barrier for the first time ever. Then, several weeks later, it briefly eclipsed 45,000.

The stock market is in full melt up. The Trump bump is powering share prices higher. Investors and speculators expect a bright future. And their intentions are to exploit it for personal profit. Read More

11.28.24- Seven Key Indicators to Watch as the Dollar Declines
Mike Maharrey

There's been a lot of talk about "de-dollarization," with many countries trying to minimize their exposure to the U.S. dollar.

But is the dollar really in trouble?

Investment guru Nick Giambruno thinks it is. In fact, he believes the dollar will ultimately collapse. Read More

11.27.24- About that “Government Efficiency”
 James Hickman

As the year 1980 came to a close, Americans had just experienced the worst annual inflation in decades.

It was the culmination of weak, incompetent leadership combined with massive government spending throughout the stagflation of the 1970s— an entire decade of high unemployment, little growth, and a rising cost of goods and services. Read More

Turkey, Touchdowns, and Trading
Greg Guenthner

The market melt-up is in full force as we enjoy the Thanksgiving trading week.

This is easily my favorite holiday. I get a midweek break in the market action filled with food, family, and football — without the added stress of exchanging gifts and all the cleanup that comes after a busy Christmas morning with the kids… Read More

11.25.24- Americans Need $5.3 Million Net Worth To Be Considered Financially Successful: Survey
Tyler Durden

Americans have high expectations of what it means to be financially successful, but many of them do not expect to meet their desired level of success, according to a survey by financial planning company Empower.

An annual salary in excess of $270,000 is needed for a person to be considered successful in the United States, the Nov. 22 survey found.

In terms of net worth, the threshold is at $5.3 million.  Read More

11.23.24- Three Unusual Inflation Hedges
Adam Sharp

As we float in the trough following the first wave of inflation, bracing for the next, it seems an excellent time to review a few alternative inflation hedges.

Today we’ll examine the benefits of owning firearms, farmland, and fixed-rate mortgages during inflationary periods. Let’s get started.  Read More

11.22.24- Elon Musk’s Wrecking Ball and Your Financial Future
Peter Reagan

Discover how the Department of Government Efficiency’s bold plans could reshape your financial future. With huge cuts to government spending, will inflation subside? Will prices finally fall? Or will Bidenomics prices stick around even longer?

One of Donald Trump's big campaign promises when he won both in 2016 and this year was to reduce the size of the Federal government and radically reduce government spending.  Read More

11.21.24- Investors Are Increasingly Reluctant To Buy US Treasuries Even At These Yields
Bas van Geffen

Yesterday, my colleague wrote that not everything is worth worrying about equally. Financial stability reports always provide plenty of fodder for pessimists; after all, the purpose of these reports is to raise awareness of potential downsides. But not all risks are equally concrete or urgent. Having said that, in its latest Financial Stability Review, the ECB was more blunt about financial risks than in previous years. Read More

11.20.24- How to Stick The Market Melt-Up
Greg Guenthner

Melt-up season is upon us and stocks are posting big moves… in both directions!

The sharp election rally has given way to some volatility as investors digest the moves, fill some gaps, and nervously wait to see what stocks and sectors bounce first. Read More

11.19.24- A Watched Market Crash Pot Never Boils
QTR’s Fringe Finance

The stock market will crash as a result of policy the last few years. The left will use it as a clarion call to blame President Trump.

I was thinking today about my prognostications over the last year regarding the stock market, and the old phrase “a watched pot never boils” came to mind. The lesson is simple: the more you focus on something you’re waiting for, the less likely it is to happen. It’s only when you stop paying attention that things unfold as you may have wanted or predicted. Read More

11.18.24- Regional Banks To Go Bust? Massive Bailouts Coming
John Rubino

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11.16.24- The US Economy Will Collapse: How Trump Should Handle It
Doug Casey

View Video

11.15.24- How The Trade War Ends
MN Gordon

The quote “When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will,” is frequently attributed to 19th century writer and free market economist Frederic Bastiat. While these specific words, strung together with this specific syntax, cannot be found in Bastiat published catalogue, their sentiments are of the type he would have likely endorsed.

The point is that free trade not only increases the wealth of different societies, but it may also be essential for peaceful relations. The breakdown of free trade has often coincided with wars. These wars start as currency and trade wars and then escalate into shooting wars. This is something to be mindful of as President-elect Trump amps up forthcoming import tariffs. Read More

11.14.24- Trump’s Second Term: What It Means for America and Investors
Doug Casey

What are your overall thoughts on Trump’s second term?

How do you expect it to differ from his first term?

Doug Casey:Thank heavens Kamala lost. If she’d won, the Jacobins would have cemented their hold on the country, and it would have been “game over.” We would have seen an acceleration of cultural decline, vastly higher taxes and regulations, and a serious push to shut down free speech. Read More

11.13.24- American Economy Bleaker
than its Façade
David Haggith

News articles today speak of gross statistical manipulation, soaring bond yields due to rising inflation, and a possibly fizzling stock rally.

More voices are harmonizing with mine by saying that the recession already began this year. (Which is not to say they are saying it with any awareness of what I’ve been saying, as I don’t suppose they are.) Today, Ed Dowd says that Donald Trump is inheriting “a turd of an economy” because the facts have been concealed (read “stealth recession)” behind “such blatant manipulation of government statistics.” Read More

11.12.24- Hold Your Nose and Buy!
Greg Guenthner

There are times when it pays to be contrarian.

This is not one of those times. 

Stocks have exploded higher since the election, with some of the market’s most speculative areas taking on leadership roles.

If you’re looking for a melt-up, you’ve come to the right place. Read More

11.11.24- Global Credit Collapse Is Deflationary
Kelsey Williams

NOTE TO READERS:  “Global Credit Collapse Is Deflationary” was originally published as an exclusive for TalkMarkets on October 29, 2024. I have not changed anything in the article, nor is there any reason to modify or alter what is written below because of U.S. election results.

Bond prices collapsed nearly 3% post-election and are down 12% since mid-September. Whatever that tells us did not change because of election results. Read More

11.09.24- Judy Shelton Returns With A Bold Plan To Restore Gold
Peter Schiff

2024 has demonstrated why gold is worth investing in, especially for foreign central banks, who seek to shore up the weaknesses of their fiat currency by buying gold. 

In her newest work, former Trump administration advisor Judy Shelton argues that a return to sound money requires going back to gold. Read More

11.08.24- The Road to America’s Golden Age
MN Gordon

Hey! Rub-a-dub-dub. Trump won!

Make a toast or say a prayer. It all depends on your political and spiritual preferences. There are times to kiss the bottle. So, too, there are times to kneel in church. Perhaps now is the time for both.

“This will truly be the golden age of America,” remarked Trump. Read More

11.07.24- The Recession Of 2025 Will Be Backdated
Jeffrey Tucker

It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to all by next summer. It will then be declared by year’s end. The following year it could become backdated with data revisions that take us to 2022. At that point, it will become obvious to people that we have a major problem. Money velocity will freeze up and banks will start failing.

That’s a lot to consider so let’s unpack this a bit. Read More

11.06.24- Trump Wins, Sends 'Trumpquake' Through Washington
Tyler Durden

Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius provided clients, shortly after the official call by AP on a Trump win, the six main points of what this means in the political game in Washington, the economy, and markets: Read More

11.05.24- The Great Blunder In Public Finance
Economart

Why so many go so wrong on public debt.

I have been involved in the study of economics for about 30 years. What spurred my interest was the discovery of a major blunder in the field of Public Finance that has caused centuries of misery, poverty and tyranny. The strange thing is that we all know of this blunder in various ways, but inexplicably refuse to incorporate the information into reasoning on this most important subject. It is beyond me why the learned and lettered people of Finance and economics allow this fundamental and dubious premise, passively accepted for millennia, to persist. Read More

11.04.24- Buffett Calls The Top: Berkshire Dumps 100 Million Apple Shares As Unprecedented Selling Spree Boosts Cash To Record
$325 Billion Dollars
Tyler Durden

Back in August, when discussing Buffett’s ongoing liquidation of his Bank of America stake, we said that “Berkshire’s rising cash stockpiles merely reflect the firm’s inability to find deals in today’s overvalued and weak economic environment”, little did we know just how accurate that would be, because just one day later we and the rest of the market were stunned to learn that far from only dumping Bank of America, the 94-year-old Omaha billionaire had been busy quietly liquidating his most iconic holding in an unprecedented selling spree that sent Berkshire’s cash pile soaring by a record $88 billion to an all time high $277 billion at the end of Q2. Read More

11.02.24- Why the DOLLAR will collapse, GOLD will rule, and America will FRACTURE
into new nations
Mike Adams

View Video

11.01.24- The Brics Version of Globaloney
Joseph P. Farrell

When Catherine Austin Fitts sent the following article to me in an email, I knew instantly I’d be blogging about it, because I think it’s a bit of confirmation – in its own convoluted geopolitical double-speak – of a “scenario” I’ve had in my head, and mentioned, ever since the days of my appearances on the late George Ann Hughes’ The Byte Show in the 2o10s, that scenario being one of “Mafia wars”. But we’ll get back to that after the story, which one simply has to read to believe: Read More

10.31.24- US Treasury: Funny Money
Ponzi Scheme
Helena Glass

Corporate fines and penalties awarded to the US government have surpassed $1 trillion since 2000.  Despite the malfeasance, no one ever went to jail.    No one was ‘sanctioned’.  How much of the penalties were imposed as a Cartel fee, and how much were for egregious acts that should have resulted in prison?   Where does the collected money go? Read More

10.30.24- BRICS will not kill Dollar – War Will
Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, I know you will not say who you advise, but we know you were the only Western analyst called in by China during the Asian Currency Crisis. People have also seen you in India at that famous hotel that the terrorists attacked. China even issued a white paper on how their central bank uses Capital Flow Analysis, which you invented. That said, my question is: The BRICS had everyone expecting a gold-backed currency if that failed. You also said in an interview that the new BRICS currency would not displace the dollar. Would you comment on why a gold-backed BRIC note would fail since they seem to have taken that position from you? Read More

10.29.24- Government Can Fix 
Neither Food Nor Farm
Joel Salatin

With the national health crisis, food debauchery, and farm exploitation suddenly jumping to headlines via RFK, Jr., numerous people have offered solutions but nothing I’ve seen truly gets to the heart of the problem. 

Recently RFK, Jr. gave his recipe but in general, it’s yet another request for government intervention in these fields (pun intended). Capping drug prices, prohibiting research grants from going to people with conflicts of interest, and reforming crop subsidies to incentivize healthier alternatives all sound nice. Eliminating SNAP (formerly food stamps) from being spent on high fructose corn syrup drinks ($9 billion annually) sounds good too. Read More

10.28.24- On The Wrong Track: This Is What An Imploding Economy Looks Like
Michael Snyder

One of the main reasons why Americans are in such a foul mood right now is because the economy is in really bad shape and it just keeps getting worse.  This is very good news for the Trump campaign, because most Americans don’t want things to remain the same.  A desire for change is in the air, but our economy is unraveling so rapidly that it won’t be easy for anyone to turn things around.  We have built up a tremendous amount of momentum in the wrong direction, and it appears that the months ahead are not going to be pleasant. Read More

10.26.24- Do We Face a "Minsky Moment"?
John Rubino

And what, exactly, does that mean? 

Paul Tudor Jones, a well-known billionaire hedge fund manager, recently went on CNBC to warn about the impact of America’s soaring government debt. As reported by Kitco:

The Tudor Investment founder and CIO expressed concerns that if the U.S. continues to spend beyond its means, a major sell-off in the bond market could ensue, leading to a spike in interest rates. Read More

10.25.24- "Consumers Running Out Of Money": Former Target Exec Offers Dire Warning Ahead Of Christmas
Tyler Durden

US corporate media outlets continue to push propaganda that the economy thrives ahead of the presidential elections, cheerleading the most recent retail sales print. However, most Americans know MSM is full of 'malarkey' because inflation and interest rates force many to spend more but receive less. Many folks have depleted their personal savings and racked up insurmountable credit card debt just to keep up with rising food, energy, insurance, and shelter costs. This toxic mix of inflation, sparked by failed Bidenomics, has hit low- and middle-income families the hardest, potentially leading to a breaking point this upcoming holiday shopping season. Read More

10.24.24- Economy Slowly Ebbing in Rising Tide of Inflation
David Haggith

The Dow tumbled fairly hard today (-400), but the real news is the reason it fell. According to CNBC, the stock market’s most troubled day in over a month is happening because Treasury yields have been rising and competing with stocks. Treasury yields started rising when the Fed started lowering rates; and, according to John Rubino, there may be no surer sign of a bond vigilante rebellion. Or, as he put it, “Bonds don’t trust the Fed.” Read More

10.23.24- The Point of No Return(s)
James Rickards

Should the U.S. national debt be considered an actual crisis? Does it have the destructive power of a hurricane, tornado, earthquake or other crisis?

The short answer is yes but the full explanation requires a financial history lesson. Read More

10.22.14- Two Weeks Before
the Meltdown Begins
Frank Miele

I wouldn’t be much of a political pundit if I weren’t willing to share my prediction for what will happen in 15 days when one of the most important presidential elections in history is decided.

So here goes: Donald Trump will win, and he will win convincingly. But that doesn’t mean the progressive left won’t have a meltdown. Just as in 2016, when Trump was first elected president, the media will be dismayed, the Democrats will be shocked, and there will be protests in the streets, possibly violent. Congressional Democrats such as Jamie Raskin will try to prevent Trump from being sworn in by declaring him an insurrectionist. Read More

10.21.24- You Can’t Get Blood Out Of A Stone: U.S. Consumers Have Been Squeezed Bone Dry As The U.S. Economy Falters
Michael Snyder

A recent survey discovered that 79 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. is on the wrong track right now.  As a nation, we may not agree on much, but this is one thing that almost all of us can agree on.  Needless to say, the economy is the number one reason why so many people are dissatisfied with the direction that the country is heading.  Over the past four years the cost of living has risen much faster than paychecks have, and as a result our standard of living has been going down.  Now we have reached a point where tens of millions of U.S. consumers have been squeezed bone dry, and as a result businesses are failing all over the nation. Read More

10.19.24- How Federal “Bans”, “Freezes”, and “Price Controls” Spread Economic Chaos
James Wesley Rawles

I have always been a believer in free market economics. Whenever a government tries to “fix” things, it often makes things worse, and more often than not, the law of Unintended Consequencesis engaged. Prohibition of alcohol early in the last century is often cited, but some of the worst cases of Federal government intervention have taken place since the 1960s. Here are a few examples: Read More

10.18.24- Retail Bad News Adjusted into Great News Just in Time for the Election
David Haggith

You've heard of "just-in-time" ordering; well, this is it; well, this is just-in-time statistics made to order.

In keeping with the analysis I did in recent Deeper Dives about how all the good news in economics these days appears to be adjusted into place, we have another clear example today that I'll share with all. Read More

10.17.24- Top 3 Predictions
for Post-Election America
Doug Casey

International Man: In the 2020 Presidential elections, there were allegations of cheating, voter fraud, and all sorts of shenanigans.

What do you expect to happen in the 2024 election in this regard? Do you think the outcome will be disputed?

Doug Casey: Election disputes are not unique to the current era. In the 1960 election, Chicago’s Mayor Daley stuffed ballot boxes, allowing Kennedy to win over Nixon in an extremely close election. Read More

10.16.24- The Biggest Credit Bubble in History
Brian Maher

Economist Richard Duncan is credited with fabricating the term “creditism.”

Many still insist ours is a capitalist system. Yet Mr. Duncan tells them to have another guess.

He argues that the capitalist system went into the grave when the gold standard went into the grave. Read More

10.15.24- 10 Signs That The Economy Is A Giant Mess As The Election Approaches
Michael Snyder

The health of the economy has been a major determining factor in many past presidential elections, and the health of the economy is certainly going to have an enormous influence on the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.  In fact, according to a poll that was just released by Rasmussen the economy is the number one issue by a wide margin for voters in the ultra-important swing state of Pennsylvania.  Unfortunately for the Democrats, most Americans are not pleased with how the economy is performing, and it appears that conditions are now taking another turn for the worse.  The following are 10 signs that the economy is a giant mess as the election approaches… Read More

10.14.24- What If There’s No Landing at all, But Flight at Higher Speed and Altitude than Normal, with Higher and Rising Inflation?
Wolf Richter

That scenario is re-emerging as a real possibility in recent economic data.

When the Fed cut its policy rates on September 18, it looked at labor market data showing a sudden slowdown of job creation to weak levels, and it looked at decent consumer spending data, so-so income growth, and a very thin and plunging savings rate. And the trends looked lousy. Read More

10.12.24- Prepare for False Flag
Before U.S. Election
Gerald Celente

View Video

10.11.24- BRICS working on own payment system – Russian finance minister
RT Exclusive

The group’s members want to bypass “politicized” Western platforms, Anton Siluanov has told RT

The BRICS countries are working to create their own international payments system as platforms which operate using Western infrastructure are becoming increasingly politicized, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told RT Arabic in an exclusive interview on Wednesday. The unprecedented sanctions campaign against Moscow spearheaded by the US has forced Russia and other members of the geopolitical bloc to look for ways to pursue trade despite the restrictions. Read More

10.10.24- Why I Want My Kids to Grow Up to be Union Bosses
James Hickman

Like most kids, I wanted to be an astronaut when I was little. Then a fireman. Then a pirate. Then a movie star.

My parents were pretty traditional so they hoped I would grow up to become a doctor. This is pretty typical; after all, parents just want their kids to be financially secure.

I think about this a lot with my kids— both of whom are extremely young. I give a lot of thought to what their world will look like in 20 years given the seismic geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts taking place. Read More

10.09.24- Projected Supply Deficits For Key Energy Transition Metals
Tyler Durden

The demand for clean energy metals will grow by more than 400% by 2030, according to the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC). 

Supply, however, is not on track to keep up with this surging demand. 

Visual Capitalist partnered with Appian Capital Advisory to visualize what these supply gaps may look like by 2030 and the mining investment needed to balance these deficits.  Read More

10.08.24- Can America Survive Global De-Dollarization?
Daniel Kowalski

“Money does not grow on trees” is an old expression of wisdom that seems to have been disregarded by 21st century American policymakers. People all over the world and throughout time base their decisions primarily through lived experience. The US dollar became the world’s reserve currency in the aftermath of World War II, which is now almost eighty years ago. There is virtually no one in power at the American government or in leading institutions who has a living memory from before that period. Read More

10.07.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How to Steer Hurricanes, Flood Homes, and Steal Lithium
Greg Reese

The lithium rich mines in North Carolina and the thieves who occupy government

We have had the technology to create, control, and steer hurricanes for decades.

“Project Cirrus is the first Official attempt to modify a hurricane. It was run by General Electric with the support of the US military. The official theory was that by changing the temperature outside the eye-wall of a hurricane, which they did by seeding the clouds with various compounds such as silver iodide, a decrease in strong winds will result. Read More

10.05.24- America’s “Quiet Coup”
Brian Maher

Is the United States enduring a “Quiet Coup”? Economist Peter St. Onge:

In the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis, former chief economist of the IMF Simon Johnson warned that the same dysfunctional policies he saw in his basket-case banana republics had taken hold in the United States. Read More

10.04.24- Mideast Tinderbox Set to Explode
Jim Rickards

There’s so much happening right now, including last night’s vice presidential debate, it’s hard to know where to begin.

But yesterday’s attack by Iran on Israel needs to be addressed because of its potentially massive implications.

Iran launched a major missile attack against Israel, in apparent retaliation for recent Israeli attacks upon Iranian proxy Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Details of the attack remain sketchy, and Israel is extremely secretive about whatever damage it sustained. Read More

10.03.24- America Is Falling Apart: Our National Priorities Are in Dire Need of Restructuring
John & Nisha Whitehead

“You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”—Bob Dylan

A water main breaks every two minutes somewhere in the U.S., resulting in contaminated drinking supplies and boil water notices.

One out of three bridges in the U.S. needs repair, endangering hundreds of millions of commuters. More than 42,000 bridges across the country, carrying about 167 million vehicles each day, are in disrepair. Read More

10.02.24- Raging Bulls Take Over the World
Greg Guenthner

The major averages are barreling into the fourth quarter perched near all-time highs.

The S&P 500 is now up more than 20% year-to-date, and more than 60% off its bear market lows posted in late 2022.

US stocks are strong — no doubt about that! Read More

Time Is Running Out: US Port Strike Could Begin Tuesday; Goldman Finds Highly Exposed Retailers
Tyler Durden

Time is running out for the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX)—a coalition of port operators and carriers—to form a new labor contract as the existing one expires at midnight. A no-deal scenario would mean thousands of longshoremen at three dozen facilities across 14 Gulf and East Coast ports would begin striking at 12:01 am EST. Tuesday would mark the beginning of a major supply chain storm (inflation surge) in a no-deal scenario. Read More

09.30.24- Trump or Harris: Who’s Better for the Economy?
Peter Reagan

Both major party candidates in the U.S. have started to share details about what they envision for the economy and how they want to get to that vision. What will be the real-world effects of those policies, and how can you get ready for what’s coming?

As we move into the final months of the 2024 presidential race, we’re starting to hear details from both the Trump and Harris campaigns. We’re learning more about how they plan to ensure a prosperous future for our country. Read More

09.28.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Greatest Coverup in History
John Leake

NIH Director Francis Collins on EcoHealth Alliance/WIV partnership: "There's a lot more to this story than we have been able to talk about."

Last night at dinner, my younger brother told me about an old Army Ranger buddy of his who did several tours in Afghanistan & Iraq, and all of the terrible things he did and saw for the U.S. government and its corporate cronies. Dawning awareness of the true horror of it caused him to go through a dark odyssey of alcohol and violence from which he may never have emerged had it not been for his exceptional mental toughness and discipline. Read More

09.27.24- China is Winning the EV War
MN Gordon

Jim Farley, chief executive of Ford Motor Company, knew it was bad before he boarded his return flight to Michigan. His fact-finding mission to China in May had revealed the cold hard truth.

That “Chinese EV makers are using a low-cost supply base to undercut the competition on price, offering slick digital features and aggressively expanding to overseas markets.”

According to Farley, “this is an existential threat.” Read More

09.26.24- Port Of New York-New Jersey Details Strike Operations Plan
Stuart Chirls

Union work stoppage would shut down East Coast gateway, dozens of other ports

The second-busiest U.S. ocean container port urged shippers to wind down cargo business less than a week before a strike deadline set by union dockworkers. Read More

09.25.24- This Is What Happened When Javier Milei Dumped Rent Controls
M Dowling

As Kamala Harris’s economic plan evolves around a failed communist policy of rent controls, Javier Milei ditched them in Argentina.

When Javier Milei was elected President of Argentina, one of his first orders was to scrap the country’s onerous rent controls. According to The Wall Street Journal, here’s what happened next. Read More

09.24.24- So the Economy Now Depends on Stocks Which Depend on Front-Running the Fed-And This Is Fine?
Charles Hugh Smith

Is an economy based on the wealth effect generated by front-running the front-runners really that stable? 

So the entire economy depends on the stock market going up as punters front-run the Fed--and this is not only fine, it's optimal, the best arrangement the world has ever seen. On which ethereal plane is this considered sane, much less optimal?  Read More

09.23.24- "The Biggest Wild Card In The Presidential Election": Just Days Left Until A Crippling Port Strike Paralyzes The East Coast
Tyler Durden

Late last week, the CEO of Flexport - one of largest US supply-chain logistics operators - warned that "the biggest wild card in the presidential election that nobody’s talking about? The looming port strike that could shut down all East and Gulf Coast ports just 36 days before the election.” Read More

09.21.24- SEC Slip-Up Hints at
Fresh Financial Fears
Adam Sharp

Oops. Last week the SEC accidentally published internal commentary along with a speech by Chair Gary Gensler. Here’s one of the comments which was mistakenly included.

I strongly recommend that a sentence be placed here (or somewhere [sic] in the first part of the speech) to reassure markets that you are not making the speech because you think there is an imminent crisis. Read More

09.20.24- Rate Cuts: Good News, Bad News
Jim Rickards

As reported yesterday, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in over four years. But that was expected. What wasn’t expected by many was how aggressive the cut was. And that’s the bad news for markets and the economy.

Why? Weren’t market bulls hoping for a pivot by the Fed for months? Weren’t they ready to pop the champagne cork? Read More

09.19.24- If The Markets Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get?
Kelsey Williams

HOW BAD CAN THINGS GET? 

Pretty damn bad. Which means that it will likely be much worse than most of us can imagine. Other than Covid and its forced shutdown of economic activity by governments worldwide, the most recent learning experience for investors is the Great Recession of 2007-09. Beginning in October 2007 and ending in February 2009, the S&P 500 Index lost 53%… Read More

09.18.24- Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn’t
Lance Roberts

Since 2020, momentum investing has generated significantly better returns than other strategies. Such is not surprising, given the massive amounts of stimulus injected into the financial system. However, Brett Arends for Marketwatch noted in 2021 that momentum investing can give you an edge. To wit:

“Its success ‘is a well-established empirical fact,’ and can be demonstrated across multiple assets and over 212 years of stock market data, argues money manager Cliff Asness and his colleagues. It is ‘the premier market anomaly,’ writes analyst Gary Antonacci. It trounces a simple ‘buy and hold’ stock market strategy going back almost 100 hundred years, estimates money manager Meb Faber.”  Read More

09.17.24- Grocery Rationing within Four Years
Jeffrey Tucker

There is a lack of public comment and debate about Kamala Harris’s call for price controls on groceries and rents, the most stunning and frightening policy proposal made in my lifetime. 

Immediately, of course, people will reply that she is not for price controls as such. It is only a limit on “gouging” (which she variously calls “gauging”) on grocery prices. As for rents, it’s only for larger-scale corporations with many units. Read More

09.16.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The federal government is coming for your Airline Points…
James Hickman

The US Department of Transportation clearly has a lot on its plate.

America’s infrastructure is not in great shape. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) grades America’s roads, bridges, and public transportation a C- overall.

In fact 42% of US bridges are at least 50 years old, and nearly 7.5% are considered structurally deficient. 43% of public roads are rated as mediocre or poor. Read More

09.14.24- What You Don't Know
Might Surprise You
Michael Snyder

Large businesses are declaring bankruptcy at a staggering rate, and yet we are being told over and over again that the economy is just fine.  Needless to say, most of the country isn’t buying it.  Survey after survey has shown that most Americans believe that the economy is on the wrong track.  But those that are running things continue to push their “booming economy” narrative anyway, and I suppose that will continue all the way through the election in November.  Of course anyone with half a brain should be able to see the truth, because day after day we just continue to get more troubling economic numbers.  For example, it is being reported that U.S. corporate bankruptcies “spiked” during the month of August… Read More

09.13.24- "This New Engine Will End Electric Cars," says Toyota CEO About his Creation
Beyond Discovery

View Video

09.12.24- “Joy” is going to drive gold prices
to absurd levels
James Hickman

Taylor Swift’s announcement pretty much said it all.

After last night’s Presidential debate, the pop star publicly endorsed Kamala Harris because “she is a steady-handed, gifted leader” who fights for “LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body. . .”

I really try to keep an open mind and understand other people’s opinions. But I personally have an extremely difficult time comprehending how someone thinks abortion and LGBTQ rights are the most important problems facing the country right now. Read More

09.11.24- “All I see is Red”
Greg Guenthner

September strikes again!

After just a handful of trading days, I’m here to report that this month is going much like many investors feared…

Stocks are skidding lower at an alarming rate so far this month and traders are running for cover, buying up safety trades like utilities and consumer staples names as tech stocks and other popular plays continue to dive. Read More

09.10.24- DON’T Trust the Polls
Jim Rickards

As my longtime readers know, I’m a financial forecaster who prefers to focus on markets.

But because politics can have such a large influence on markets, I can’t afford to ignore politics. So I’ll be focusing a lot on the November election in the next two months.

Today we’ll be looking at the candidates’ platforms, along with polling results and methodologies. Read More

09.09.24- Preparing For A Crash? Warren Buffett Has Been Selling Off Hundreds Of Millions Of Shares In 2024
Michael Snyder

Warren Buffett did not become a billionaire by being stupid.  According to Forbes, Buffett is worth more than 144 billion dollars, and that makes him one of the wealthiest men in the entire world.  He made his money in the stock market, and so why is he now pulling money out of the stock market at a feverish pace?  Does he anticipate that a crash is coming?  Earlier this year, Buffett shocked the investing community when his company sold off half the Apple shares that it was holding…Read More

09.07.24- Layoffs Jump To Highest Levels
Since 2009
George Gammon

View Video

09.06.24- September
Brian Maher

The Worst Month for Stocks

Here in Annapolis summer’s fever has broken.

Deep azure vaults high overhead… and refrigerating wafts steal in from the Chesapeake Bay.

All is peace. Read More

09.05.24- Inflation Leaves the Middle Class Too Poor to Shop at Dollar Stores
John Carney

Inflation Chops Down Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree’s latest earnings report offers a grim reflection on the state of the American economy. What we are witnessing is not just a minor fluctuation in retail performance, but a broader indictment of an economy that, under the stewardship of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, has manifestly lost its way. Read More

09.04.24- US Futures Slide, As Global Market Rout Extends For Second Day
Tyler Durden

US stock-index futures fell, pointing toward a continued selloff on Wall Street after a slump Tuesday, when dire manufacturing PMI and ISM data led to renewed concern that a recession may be looming. Futures on the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index declined 0.8% at 8.00 am ET, as NVDA extended its record losses which saw a historic $280 billion in market cap wiped out in Tuesday's session, after a Bloomberg report hit just after the close that Kamala's DOJ sent subpoenas to the chipmaker. Read More

09.03.24- America's Real Estate Market Is on the Verge of Collapse
Peter Reagan

What’s going on with housing? Home sales plunge to a record low – record high prices in many parts of the nation, combined with steep mortgage rates have led to a standoff between buyers and sellers. How much is a home really worth if no one can buy it?

Today there is corporate media spin that the overall rate of inflation is “easing” for everything in the CPI basket of goods. Read More

09.02.24- Holiday Weekend Rant:
The Sane vs. the Insane
James Howard Kunstler

The alliance between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Donald Trump is many things.

But first it’s an all-clear signal to a large class of less-than-fully brain-damaged Americans that it’s OK to quit being insane. As you know, this election is no longer a battle between the political left and right. It’s an epic struggle-session between the sane and the insane. Read More

08.31.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Could the Zionist State of Israel Disappear Within a Year?
Chuck Baldwin

In a stunning interview with Judge Andrew Napolitano, former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson quotes high-level Israeli government officials as stating their concern that if Israel maintains its current warmongering ways, the Zionist State could disappear within one year. Johnson also describes the radical religious zealotry of many Israelis behind the nation’s infatuation with war. (A very similar zealotry exists within a majority of evangelical churches, by the way.) Read More

08.30.24- Dollar General Crashes Most On Record After Management Warns Of "Financially Constrained Core Customer"
Tyler Durden

Dollar General shares plummeted by as much as 26% as the US cash trading session got underway, marking the steepest intraday decline ever. 

Shares crashed to early 2018 levels. 

Dismal earnings sparked the record drop in DG's share price. Read More

08.29.24- Older Office Towers In Cities Face "Tsunami Of Trouble"
Tyler Durden

Commercial real estate market challenges are more severe for older office towers in downtown metro areas than those outside city centers. The mismatch between funding needs and available credit in a high-interest-rate environment has also intensified the strain on building owners, as elevated tower vacancy rates persist across many markets due to the ongoing trend of remote work becoming the norm. Read More

08.28.24- Rickards Issues Avalanche Warning
Jim Rickards

Remember the Aug. 5 mini-crash? Well, investors apparently don’t.

It seems like a distant memory at this point, as the “buy the dip” theme is a deeply entrenched force in today’s market.

Well, I’m afraid that this Wednesday, Aug. 28, they’re about to get a stark reminder. Only this time, it’ll be far worse. Today, I’ll show you why.

First off, why are stocks going up? The simple answer is that the market’s in a bubble. There are a couple of things to consider…Read More

08.27.24- Decoding the Deep State
Jeffrey Tucker

Years ago as an intern in D.C., and long before the agencies all locked their doors to visitors, I had the occasion to putter around the Department of Transportation and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

These were obviously not normal workplaces. To my amazement, they were mostly dark, empty and quiet, and the employees did not seem in the slightest bit busy doing anything at all. It was like a soulless blob. It was just so…mundane. It was all kind of spooky.Read More

08.26.24- The Fable of the Economic
“Soft Landing”
Frank Shostak

According to some commentators, to counter inflation interest rates in the US must increase to a level that effectively restrains the economy. It is held that this increase in interest rates does not have to cause a recession if Fed’s policy makers could orchestrate a “soft landing.” The economy is portrayed as a spaceship that occasionally deviates from a path of “stable” economic growth and “stable” prices. All that is required to fix the problem is for the central bank to give a suitable “push” to the economy (i.e., the spaceship) to bring it back to the right growth path. Read More

08.24.24- The Dark Investing Secret the Bears Won’t Tell You
Graham Summers, MBA

The crash callers and bears just got a major lesson.

It’s a lesson that all investors have to learn at some point. Indeed, the only investors who actually make money from the markets are those who have learned that lesson and integrated its outcomes to their investing strategies.

The lesson?

Bears don’t make money. Read More

08.23.24- “Your Cynicism Is Sickening”
Brian Maher

Aspiring presidential nominee Harris has gurgled about price controls on food.

Yesterday we shouted harshly against them.

We argued that price controls brought with them economic maladies far worse than their supposed cures.

Specifically, that shortages are their inevitable fruit — their sour fruit. Read More

08.22.24- Wall Street Outraged Over Latest Epic F*ck Up By Biden's Labor Department
Tyler Durden

It's delightfully fitting that on the day the entire financial world was holding its breath for Biden's highly politicized and grossly incompetent Bureau of Labor Statistics to admit it had massively fucked up the jobs data over the past year, that Biden's highly politicized and grossly incompetent Bureau of Labor Statistics fucked up even more. Read More

08.21.24- Why Gold Price Ripping is Giving Us Big Clues About
Financial System Crashing
Lyn Alden

View Video

08.20.24- Stepping back from the eco-woke communist abyss
James Hickman

I’m currently en route to Chile, where I lived for about eight years from 2011-2018 before moving to Puerto Rico.

I remember when I first came down to Chile— the thing I found so remarkable was that it was a relatively conservative place, especially by Latin American standards. Back then the general tone was that you were pretty much left alone to do your thing. Read More

08.19.24- What Would “Kamalanomics” Do To The U.S. Economy?
Michael Snyder

She should have just kept her mouth shut about the economy.  I know that sounds harsh, but it is true.  The best chance that Kamala Harris had of winning was to stand for nothing.  I am being completely serious.  For the first few weeks of her campaign, she was being showered with positive coverage by the mainstream media even though she had not come forward with any serious policy proposals.  She could have probably continued doing that all the way to election day in November, but now she has ruined her campaign by telling us what she actually plans to do if she becomes president. Read More

08.17.24- Kamala’s vision for the most expensive real estate in the world
James Hickman

Just as Peter predicted on Wednesday after the monthly inflation report came out, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris almost immediately went into self-congratulatory mode to brag about how great they are at managing the economy.

As President Biden told a gathering of reporters on Wednesday, “I said we’re gonna have a soft landing. We’re gonna have a soft landing. My policies are working.” He then commanded them to “start writing that way”, and we have no doubt their lackeys in the media will dutifully comply. Read More

08.16.24- ‘Fools, Drunkards and the United States of America’
Brian Maher

Mr. Barry Ritholz of the eponymous Ritholtz Wealth Management:

We were warned that deficit spending would crowd out private capital, choke off innovation and new company formation; it will send the costs of U.S. borrowing skyrocketing higher, making the debt impossible to manage; force the U.S. dollar to be radically devalued against all other currencies, thereby devastating the U.S. economy; cause rampant inflation, spiking prices to levels not seen before; last, act as a drag on the overall economy.

That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. Read More

08.14.24- A Wartime Calm before the Storm
David Haggith

Recession keeps slowly advancing even as inflation retreats, but the retreat may be a ruse, as might be Iran's calm ahead of its promised attack on Israel.

We’ve got two things to cover today—the latest news on the economy because that is primarily what my site is about and the conflict in Israel. The parts are labeled so you can easily skip to the part you’re most interested in. Both appear to be in a slight lull compared to what was anticipated, but don’t count on the lull lasting. Read More

08.13.24- Markets Need A Lot More Than A Rate-Cut
Daniel Lacalle

The recent market weakness suggests a combination of profit-taking and concerns about the latest United States jobs and manufacturing figures, added to the abrupt unwinding of part of the yen carry trade. Valuations had soared and market participants now demand central bank easing. However, rate cuts may not be enough to send markets to new all-time highs. Money supply growth and quantitative easing are needed to maintain these valuations. Read More

08.12.24- Airbnb Houses Are About to
Flood the Market
John Rubino

New players will make this housing bust one for the record books

The current housing bubble features three new players, all of whom are about to switch from “buy/hold” to “panic sell.” They are:

• Boomers forced by declining health and/or shrinking stock portfolios to sell their McMansions. Read More

08.10.24- Earnings Call Mentions Of "Consumer Downturn" Soar To Highest Level Since Financial Crisis
Tyler Durden

Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Feiler told clients this AM the consumer is experiencing a "noticeable slowdown, moderation, or whatever term we choose to use—it's quite evident by now." 

Across industries—from luxury brands, airlines, and travel companies to fast-food chains, theme parks, and consumer goods companies—profit warnings and management teams have signaled that a consumer slowdown continues to gain momentum. Read More

08.09.24-How to Catch a Falling Knife
MN Gordon

“On two occasions I have been asked [by members of Parliament], ‘Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine the wrong figures, will the right answers come out?’  I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.”

– Charles Babbage, Passages from the Life of a Philosopher (1864)

Do you add glue to your pizza to keep the cheese from slipping off? Read More

08.08.24- The Housing Market is Crashing – Rate Cuts Won’t Help
Dave Kranzler

The following commentary is from the August 4th issue of my Short Sellers Journal weekly newsletter. Click on that link to get more informations. The charts below are through August 2nd. In the August 11th issue I’ll be reviewing Builder Firstsource’s Q2 numbers and explaining why I think it will be a highly profitable short (or use of puts) $BLDR. 

Housing market update – Redfin posted data this past week that reflects the degree to which home sales activity is tanking. In June, 15% of home purchase contracts were canceled and 20% of listings nationwide had price cuts. Read More

08.07.24- Turbulence Ahead! Big Ups and Bigger Downs to Come.
David Haggith

There are no straight roads to economic ruin.

One reader asked me after yesterday’s article on the historic market meltdown whether I thought the stock market would bounce back up to nearly make a full recovery. I responded as follows:

There is still a lot of Fed money floating around, and plenty of people will do all they can to game markets up if they can. We'll have to see tomorrow, though, if their efforts hold. Things may get volatile and bounce around for awhile; but the interesting point is not so much whether stocks crash or not but the reason for the huge stock drops today being everyone suddenly concerned about recession and about the turn in labor, particularly bringing up the Sahm Rule. Read More

08.06.24- The Great Rotation Is Underway
Zach Scheidt

A seismic shift is rumbling through the financial markets in the second half of 2024. That’s right. Let’s break it all down…

As I’m sure you know, the Fed held interest rates steady at this week’s FOMC meeting. That was no surprise.

But after years of tightening, the Fed is finally expected to pivot toward rate cuts, quite possibly in September. Read More

08.05.24- The Wheels Have Started To Come Off For The U.S. Economy, And The Worst
Is Yet To Come
Michael Snyder

For a long time, there was a lot of denial about the direction that the U.S. economy was heading.  The Biden administration and the mainstream media just kept insisting that everything was just fine even though everyone could clearly see that it wasn’t.  But now reality is setting in.  Last week we got some numbers that Wall Street really didn’t like, and a massive temper tantrum ensued.  The panic that we witnessed on Friday was quite breathtaking, and many are concerned that it could bleed over into the new week.  Investors are desperate for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but so far the Fed has not moved. Read More

08.03.24- Rock-Solid Gauge Says we are FULLY IN Recession, and Commercial Real Estate Has Plunged Deep into Financial Crisis
David Haggith

There is a little here that is extremely important for everyone and a lot here that is even more important for a privileged few.

While the “plunge protection team” appeared to have pulled the market out of its crash after my writing yesterday, the Dow is down a much harder 950 points this morning. So, it may prove a little harder to save; but put nothing past this lunatic market or the Fed’s PPT. Stocks seem to want to fall hard right now. So do Treasury yields, where the 10YR yield is plummeting. Read More

08.02.24- Dollar Debasement Ad Infinitum
MN Gordon

If there’s one thing to understand about what’s going on in the political economy today, it is the fundamentals of debt.  You do not need to be a bean counter or get too deep into the weeds to get a handle on things.

What you must understand is this.  Debt – public and private – has grown to such massive extremes that it will never be repaid.

But it will be settled one way or another.  Through default or inflation, or a combination thereof.  Moreover, the impending debt reconciliation will be legendary. Read More

08.01.24- The technocratic fallacy
Adnan Al-Abbar

An often-repeated saying among Arabs, widely believed to be the panacea to our political ills, goes like this: “The right person in the right position” by which we mean that if we insert the most qualified person for a specific job, many of the problems affected would be solved. This is a strong phrase since it seems to be irrefutable. After all, should we otherwise put the “wrong” person in any position? Conversely, should we not create the right positions for the right people? Read More

07.31.24- Revising away the Recession
David Haggith

The incumbent government's job-one in an election year is to make all news read like we've gone in the right direction, but where are we really headed?

In today’s news, John Rubino puts us on “recession watch,” confirming the things from his perspective that I’ve been saying about our slow slide into recession, despite how the latest “real” GDP report from the Biden administration turned out, which I think was a lot less than “real.” Read More

07.30.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Manufactured Uncertainty
Jeff Thomas

For many years, I’ve described a period that I envisaged to be in the future, in which much of what was considered “normal” would change dramatically.

The borders of some countries would change. The types of governments that ruled over them would change. In some cases, they would morph slowly into new entities; in others they would change suddenly. Read More

07.29.24- Markets Would Be A "Smoldering Ruin" If Manipulation Ended
Ed Steer

View Video

07.27.24- Weekend Rant: Saving Our Democracy
James Howard Kunstler

“Being insane is the new normal.” — Aimee Terese on “X”

However it happened this week, “Joe Biden” passed the blowtorch to a new generation and got himself gone from the political battlefield. Delegates to the coming Democratic National Convention (August 19) were duly notified of the selected replacement, Veep Kamala Harris, and ordered to line up behind her. Not a peep of disagreement was heard among them. Amazing that no one had a different idea. Thus, is democracy saved. Read More

07.26.24- The “Picks and Shovels” AI Investment is absurdly cheap. It won’t last.
James Hickman

In 1848, a 29-year-old Sacramento shop owner named Samuel Brannan was tending the cash register at his store when a pair of shoppers asked if they could pay him in gold.

Brannan was stunned when the shoppers pulled out solid gold nuggets. The gold, they said, had been found at Sutter’s Mill, about 35 miles northeast of Sacramento. Read More

07.25.24- Stock Market Chaos
Engulfs the Mightiest
David Haggith

And it's all the economy's fault. Well, that and the fault of everyone who ignored basic truths about the economy in order to price stocks far above all rational sense.

Today was a big ugly one for the stock market. Stocks cratered, and, for once, it wasn’t because the Fed suddenly sounded like it wasn’t going to provide the high-sugar candy of lowered interest to juice up the market. This time it was due to economic fundamentals—the kind of fundamentals you see during a recession—terrible earnings that came in below expectations. Read More

07.24.24- You’re Soaking in It
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Are we the only sane people on the planet? Let’s not be shy: regardless of short-term action, we ultimately expect the S&P 500 to fall by more than half, and the Nasdaq by two-thirds. Shorter term, we have another story. We can say without hesitation that this market looks similar in nearly every respect to the 1929, 1968 and 1972 tops, but the finer interpretation becomes less clear. Is the current market like October 1929, or is it more like, April? If it’s like April, then we’ve got a few months of advances ahead of us. Is the current market like the November 1968 top? If so, the ‘new era’ stocks didn’t start crashing until about June of 1969. Once again, it makes a difference in the short term. Read More

07.23.24- CRE Gets Strangled, Corporate Bankruptcies Highest since 2010, but Junk Bonds & Broad Financial Conditions in La-La-Land
Wolf Richter

For well over a year, there has been somewhat of a puzzle: How financial conditions, as tracked by broad measures such as the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index, have been getting looser since March 2023, and are now at the loosest level since November 2021, even though the Fed has hiked policy rates to 5.5% at the top end and engaged in $1.7 trillion in QT so far in order to tighten financial conditions. Powell has been pushed many times on this point during the FOMC press conferences. Read More

07.22.24- Globalist “Guru” Claims Trump’s Re-Election Will Mean ‘The Death of Global Order’
Brandon Smith

Yuval Harari is best known as a globalist “philosopher” or “guru” closely tied to the World Economic Forum.  He is infamous for his Ted Talks and summit speeches declaring the coming abandonment of personal individualism and independence while elevating AI as the harbinger of a new technological religion.  He joyously preaches about the fusion of AI technology with the human body to give certain elitist groups the power of “gods.” His notions of the supposedly infinite abilities of algorithms to influence culture and politics are so overblown they enter into the realm of children’s fantasy. Read More

07.20.24- Biden’s Getting Dumped
Brian Maher

How will future historians come at the 2024 presidential election?

It stands every chance of being… historic.

One candidate has already endured a shooting. That he lingers on may be considered a miracle of God.

Merely three prior presidential candidates in United States history — Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, Robert Francis Kennedy in 1968 and George Wallace in 1972 — were assassins’ targets ahead of the election. Read More

07.19.24- Is Today's Market Mania a Mega Meltdown?
David Haggith

And how we narrowly averted what could easily have become a MAGA meltdown, as one man tried to steal the votes of millions. Fortunately, the Secret Service did "stop the steal."

Yesterday, the Dow roared and soared, and today the Nasdaq screams and falls as money continues to roll rapidly out of high-tech growth stocks and into value stocks, almost as if forced at gunpoint to turn over the money. Today, the Nasdaq put in its worst performance in a year-and-a-half, while yesterday the Dow bested its own performance by more than it has in over a year. That kind of turnover is typically a sign that investors are seeing trouble for the economy and are gearing down. Perhaps, the stealth recession that no one wanted to believe in is becoming a little more apparent. Read More

07.18.24- Gold Prices Forecast: 93% Chance of September Fed Rate Cut Boosts XAU/USD
James Hyerczyk

Gold prices are inching upward on Monday after reversing earlier gains, with the precious metal testing resistance near recent highs. Traders are closely monitoring U.S. Treasury yields and dollar movements while awaiting comments from Federal Reserve officials and crucial economic data. Read More

07.17.24- Walgreens to close THOUSANDS more pharmacy stores due to rampant theft,
collapsing economy under Biden
Ethan Huff

Over the next couple of years, pharmacy chain Walgreens will close another 2,150 or so stores, CEO Tim Wentworth told the Wall Street Journal on June 27.

Wentworth says there are a number of reasons for the closures, not the least of which is America's failing economy and the resultant profit losses Walgreens is seeing. There are also too many Walgreens stores located too closely together coupled with a rampant theft problem at many locations. Read More

07.16.24- And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Who is JD Vance? Trump’s VP Pick
Matt Morgan

J.D. Vance is the American Dream become MAGA.

He grew up in Middletown, Ohio with an absent father, and a mother who suffered from addiction most of her life, which is why he supports much of Donald Trump’s efforts to help the poor working class. Vance grew up seeing the real effects of globalization, and the transformation of the American economy from industrialization into an information economy. His experience drove him to do something with his life.

So he entered the marines, went to Yale to study law, and then ran for Senate. Read More

07.15.24- How Corporate Bailouts
Inflate the Money Supply
Lennart Wagemans

Many claim that the problem with fractional reserve banking is that it loans money into existence. This is true, but under normal circumstances the money loaned by commercial banks disappears when loans are repaid or defaulted on, and this, therefore, doesn’t create a permanent inflation in the money supply.

Government intervention, however, converts temporary money into permanent money through bailouts like the Troubled Asset Relief Program. They purchase loans that would have been defaulted on, preventing the evaporation of credit. Read More

07.13.24- Trump’s Return: Get Ready For Chaos To Be Unleashed And Blamed On You
Brandon Smith

Yeah, it’s happening. The last half of 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most politically insane in a century and the sparks are already flying. The biggest moment of absurdity so far might be the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in which it was made abundantly clear for all the world to see that Biden is on the fast track to crazy town. We’ve been saying for four years that the guy is gone, a dementia case propped up and protected by the DNC and the media. Now, it’s undeniable: Read More

07.12.24- Why All Financial Markets Will Crash
Alasdair Macleod

It’s all about credit. Demand to fund rising government deficits and keep zombie corporations alive will drive up interest rates. I explain the consequences for currencies and financial values.

It’s all about credit

All transactions and all valuations are in credit. The key aspect of credit is that it is always matched by an obligation, or debt. Credit is extinguished when that obligation is discharged or defaulted upon. But in today’s financial systems, the repayment of debt is always in another form of credit, usually the transfer of ownership of a bank deposit, which is also credit. Read More

07.11.24- Vultures, Doomer Rumors
and Doomer Humor
David Haggith

The carnage is great and growing, but sometimes so is the exaggeration.

The venture vultures are squawking about the crash in commercial real-estate that has been accumulating with increasing speed as these hunched birds gather around the carcasses of dying corporations to pull scraps of meat off the bones, and they have a lot of time left to feed before the carnage finally ends: Read More

07.10.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Democrats: Dogmatic Geniuses
or Dogs Chasing Cars?
William Sullivan

In February, I predicted that it can’t be Biden on the Democrat ticket in November, while also suggesting that Democrats were already aware of that fact, and that they were likely already scheming to replace him this summer.

Betting markets are finally agreeing with my prediction about Biden being replaced on the ticket, but I’m now wondering if I haven’t given Democrats far too much credit in assuming that their political wargames, or even that anything more than hushed musings at cocktail parties, actually included this bombshell scenario or its potential fallout.  The presidential debate and its aftermath have certainly raised questions. Read More

07.09.24- It’s All MMT: The Fraud of
“Monetary Policy”
Joshua Mawhorter

Modern monetary theory (MMT) is not convincing to most trained economists of various schools of thought. This causes many to balk at MMT and mock it, some of which is warranted as a reductio ad absurdum, especially given some of MMT’s more outlandish claims. In fact, my own thesis was an Austrian critique of MMT. Read More

07.08.24- “Glocalization”
Charles Hugh Smith

Geopolitical/financial risks are proliferating and becoming more difficult to predict or hedge for a very basic reason:

The era of global integration and accord has ended and the era of global disintegration and discord is heating up.

In historian Peter Turchin’s terminology, when everyone finds reasons to cooperate, the result is an era of accord; when everyone finds reasons not to cooperate, the result is an era of discord. Read More

07.06.24- Is the Global Inflationary Depression
Already Here?
Peter St Onge and Jeffrey Tucker

There was an oblique message buried in a New York Times story on the growing crisis in commercial real estate in cities. Yes, this is exactly the kind of article that people pass over because it seems like it doesn’t have broad application. In fact, it does. It affects the core of issues like our city skylines, how we think about urbanism and progress, where we vacation and work, and whether the big cities are drivers or drains on national productivity. 

The note mentions the “broader distress brewing in the commercial real estate market, which is hurting from the twin punches of high interest rates, which make it harder to refinance loans, and low occupancy rates for office buildings — an outcome of the pandemic.” Read More

07.05.24- 10 Signs That Global War
Is Rapidly Approaching
Michael Snyder

Are we on the verge of an apocalyptic global war in which billions of people could die?  Very few people anticipated that World War I would erupt, but it happened anyway.  And very few people anticipated that World War II would erupt, but it happened anyway.  All throughout human history, there have been wars.  Ever since the very beginning, it has just been a matter of time before major powers collide.  Unfortunately, even though very alarming warning signals are flashing all around us, most of the population of the western world seems absolutely clueless about what is really going on out there.  Read More

07.04.24- The Key ‘Lessons in Liberty’
Newt Gingrich

Historic leaders often share something important in common. They are not born great. Their greatness is a result of a lifetime of difficulty and consequential choices.

As Jeremy S. Adams discussed in his book, “Lessons in Liberty,” this is especially true for remarkable Americans. In the book, Adams details the inspiring lives of extraordinary Americans and what we can learn from them today.Read More

07.03.24- The Fix is In For the Economy
Graham Summers, MBA

The Fed just confirmed my thesis.

Over the last week, I’ve noted that Uncle Sam is the economy now. 

What I mean by this, is that the U.S. government is spending so much money, and hiring so many people, that the economy is refusing to fall into recession despite weakness in the private sector. Read More

07.02.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Surprise, Surprise!
James Howard Kunstler

“Joe Biden is the walking embodiment of the exhausted American Establishment. More and more people have simply lost their faith in our Ruling Class. You could scarcely have a more potent symbol of its impotence.” — Rod Dreher

Just before the weekend, a political prairie fire raced across a nation buffaloed, blind-sided, and buried deeply in bullshit, and the little critters who inhabit the landscape are still running around with their fur smoldering. What a surprise that “Joe Biden,” the mentally-disabled pretend-president, fell apart in the debate spotlight for all to see, like Captain Queeg in his fateful witness chair, or William Jennings Bryan at the Scopes trial (1925), or the Wizard of Oz when little Toto drew the curtain back — a brutal revelation of stark truth about how things actually are. Read More

07.01.24-Crash Alert: An Unbalanced Market In Three Charts
John Rubino

During a bull market, imbalances build up that seem scary but are not, in the moment, a deal-breaker. It’s only with hindsight that we look back and say, “Oh yeah, that’s where it started to change.” 

This series points out the trends that will — eventually — be the warnings we should have heeded: 

Households are overinvested in stocks Read More

06.29.24- And Now, for Somthing Entirely Different: Zombie Biden Blows It
James Rickards

There’s been so much happening over the past 24 hours that it’s hard to keep up. The Supreme Court has been releasing several key rulings that will have a major impact on American politics.

Just this morning, they overturned the so-called Chevron deference that’s been in operation since the 1980s. Chevron handed the federal bureaucracy extensive authority to interpret statutes as it sees fit. It largely removed judicial oversight of the administrative state, which was a license for rampant bureaucratic abuse. Read More

06.28.24- Another Blow To The Housing Market
Jeffrey Tucker

There’s some bad news for those hoping for a fix to the housing market. There are signs that the squeeze is going to get worse.

If you cannot think of buying a new house right now, it’s going to be harder in the future. If you are hoping to sell, it’s a great time to do so, but then you have a problem: You need to live somewhere. That’s why so many people today are frozen in place, unable to even consider moving for a better job because it means giving up a locked-in low rate for a sky-high new rate in the midst of a price explosion. Read More

06.27.24- The Emerging Commodities Supercycle
Alan Knuckman

One hundred and three steps. That’s how much I had to climb to bring my grandpa his lunch every day at the ore dock.

Marquette, Michigan is the hub of America’s iron industry. It’s where I grew up. My grandpa was the loadmaster at the town’s famous ore dock. He spent his entire career working around iron — from iron rails, to ore boats, to where he retired, in Marquette.

Some 500 million tons of the metal have shipped out from the dock since it was first established. An additional 10 million tons of iron still flow out every year. Read More

06.26.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: U.S. Plays Russian Roulette
James Rickards

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, I’ve been warning about the dangers of escalation between the U.S. and Russia. We may be about to take a serious step up the escalation ladder.

On Sunday, Ukraine launched an attack on Crimea with U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles. The target was likely a military installation, quite possibly a Russian airbase. Read More

06.25.24- Dollar Takes a “Pounding”
James Rickards

You’ve probably heard that the U.S. economy is heavily “financialized.” What does that really mean? What is financialization?

It’s a big topic and not very well defined. It can refer to the dominance of financial activity over traditional business activity in goods and services. It can refer to market bubbles. It can refer to the use of financial instruments in non-traditional arenas such as warfare or political witch hunts. Read More

06.24.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Democracy Is Not the Same Thing
as Freedom
Soham Patil

In our modern world, most states are democracies or at least call themselves “democratic.” The adoption of democracy is hailed as one of humanity’s greatest achievements. Once upon a time, humanity broke out of the shackles of monarchies and has never looked back since. Nowadays, all citizens in democratic countries are free and safe from despots. Except, that is far from the truth.

Democratic systems have been around for a long time. Ancient Greece comes to mind as the most prominent example of democracy in antiquity. While modern democracies are wildly different from the ones in ancient Athens, they are still susceptible to the pitfalls applicable to all democracies. Read More

06.22.24- Up!
David Haggith

This week very plainly expressed a number of the reasons inflation is going to continue to fight the Fed, underscoring everything stated in last week’s Deeper Diveabout the reasons inflation would continue to rise. One of those reasons was housing: Read More

06.21.24- The Woke Movement Is Actually Corporate Enslavement – The Culture War
Is A Fight To Stop It
Brandon Smith

I was recently watching a video by some of my favorite movie commentators in which they were lamenting the apparent death of the movie theater business. They cited a long list of recent blockbuster bombs with some confusion as to why so many films were failing. In particular, they had predicted the film ‘Furiosa’ (a feminist bait and switch movie designed to replace the more popular male Mad Max character) would do relatively well. Yet, the movie bit the dust in epic fashion. They were bewildered as to why this occurred. Read More

06.14.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: : Hunter Biden is Guilty,
But Who Cares?
Sean King

I admit, I wasn’t fussed about the whole Hunter Biden conviction. But I couldn’t understand why. I mean, they finally got a Democrat on something.

But Hunter Biden is such a dirtbag; gun charges don’t do him justice.

No, this isn’t the same as getting Al Capone on tax evasion. It’s more like getting Lex Luthor on a jaywalking charge. Read More

06.13.24- Texas could become the new financial center of America with launch of the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE)
Lance D Johnson

The world’s largest asset manager and one of the most successful electronic trading firms are teaming up to create a new national stock exchange right in the heart of Texas. BlackRock and Citadel Securities are teaming up to launch the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) to compete with the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. Read More

06.12.24- If Wishes Were Fishes -
a Teachable Intermezzo
James Howard Kunstler

“Together we can finish the job.” — “Joe Biden”

This is the most significant reality of the world picture now: the wishes of the manager class are going in one direction while the actual dynamics of economy and politics go in the opposite direction. The managers wish for their management of systems to become as centralized and top-down as possible; but the very systems they manage are breaking down and seeking to reorganize at smaller scale, distributed locally. The tension entailed is explosive. Read More

06.11.24- Covid, Economy & Election: QTR On Peak Prosperity
Quoth the Raven

Last week I was interviewed by the great Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperityin a wide ranging interview that covered topics like Covid, the economy and the political future of the country.

Chris was one of the only people during the onset of Covid who was looking through the mainstream media’s narrative and was doing his own research. He has a PhD in neurotoxicology from Duke University, and an MBA from Cornell University. Read More

06.10.24- Is There A Financial Crisis Bubbling Under The Surface?
Mike Maharrey

When the Federal Reserve started raising rates, it precipitated a financial crisis. The central bank managed to paper over the problem with a bailout program, but the crisis continues to bubble and percolate under the surface.

According to the latest data from the FDIC, the U.S. banking system is sitting on $517 billion in unrealized losses due to deteriorating bond portfolios. Read More

06.08.24- A Substantial Chance Of A Major Financial Collapse & The End Of Offshored Industrialization
Gail Tverberg

Moving industrialization offshore can look like a good idea at first. But as fossil fuel energy supplies deplete, this strategy works less well. Countries doing the mining and manufacturing may be less interested in trading. Also, the broken supply lines of 2020 and 2021 showed that transferring major industries offshore could lead to empty shelves in stores, plus unhappy customers. Read More

06.07.24- Mortgage Rates Rise, Over 7% since Early April, Buyers Remain on Strike, Housing Market Still Frozen as Prices Are Too High
Wolf Richter

Stuck with a 6% or 7% mortgage that was supposed to be refinanced? The Fed is counting on them to help bring inflation down.

The over-7% mortgage rates seem to have become a fixture in the housing market. The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 7.07% in the latest week, and has now been above 7% since early April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. During Rate-Cut-Mania, the average mortgage rate had dropped to 6.76% at the low point in early January. Read More

06.06.24- Banking Crisis, Stage Two
Jim Rickards

I’m sure you recall the banking crisis of March to May 2023.

It began with the collapse of the little-known Silvergate Bank on March 8. This was followed the next day by the collapse of the much larger Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 9. SVB had over $120 billion in uninsured deposits.

Bank deposits over $250,000 each are not covered by FDIC insurance. Those depositors stood to lose all their money over the insured amount. This would have led to the collapse of hundreds of startup tech businesses in Silicon Valley that had placed their working capital on deposit at SVB.  Read More

06.05.24- Is America Losing?
Matthew Piepenburg

Below, we soberly assess the lessons of history and math against the current realities of a debt-defined America to ask and answer a painful yet critical question: Is America losing?

The End of History and the Last Man

In 1992, while I was still an undergrad with a seemingly endless optimism in life in general and the American Dream in particular, the American political scientist, Francis Fukuyama, published a much-discussed book entitled, The End of History and the Last Man. Read More

06.04.24- Is Hyperinflation a “Solution”?
Charles Hugh Smith

This contrarian sees a strong consensus around the notion that hyperinflation is the inevitable end-game of nation-states/central banks issuing fiat currencies, i.e. currencies that are not restrained by being pegged to tangible assets such as gold reserves.

The temptation to issue (via “printing” or borrowing new currency into existence by selling sovereign bonds) more currency becomes irresistible to politicians and central bankers alike as the means to mollify every constituency, from elites to the military to commoners dependent on state-funded bread and circuses. Read More

06.03.24- Global Cocoa Shortage Much Worse Than Previously Forecasted As Prices Surge
Tyler Durden

The International Cocoa Organization has admitted that the global cocoa shortage will be significantly larger than previously forecasted. Cocoa prices in New York have rebounded in recent weeks, inching above the $9,330 per ton mark to close the week. 

First reported by Bloomberg, ICCO forecasted demand will exceed production by 439,000 tons, driven mainly by higher cocoa grinding in consuming countries. This is the second estimate for the current October-September year and is much larger than the February forecast for a deficit of 374,000 tons.  Read More

06.01.24- “Stocks Can’t Ignore the Issue
Any Longer”
Brian Maher

“Stocks can’t ignore the issue any longer.”

What is the issue stocks can no longer ignore? And why can they no longer ignore it?

Answers shortly. First we look in on stocks themselves — the stocks that can ignore the issue no longer. Read More

05.31.24- McDonald's Top US Exec 'McFact-Checks' Social Media Buzz Around $18 Big Macs
Tyler Durden

A top-level McDonald's executive was fed up with social media users complaining about out-of-control 'Mcflation,' more precisely, $18 Big Macs, and wanted to set the record straight. The exec called "viral social posts" about burger inflation "poorly sourced." This comes as the burger chain is preparing to reintroduce the $5 meal deal to retain consumers as failed Bidenomics crushes the working poor, resulting in a price war between other burger chains (read here). Read More

05.30.24- The World Has Accumulated A $315 Trillion Mountain Of Debt, And Global Events Will Soon Bring It Crashing Down
Michael Snyder

I suppose that congratulations are in order.  It is no small feat to pile up a debt of $315,000,000,000,000, and we will never see a mountain of debt of this magnitude ever again after it comes crashing down.  Even though delinquency rates are rising all over the world, as long as conditions remain at least somewhat relatively stable the game will be able to continue.  Unfortunately, conditions won’t be relatively stable for long.  Global events have started to accelerate significantly, and that is really going to shake things up in the months ahead. Read More

05.29.24- Are Stocks about to Crash?
David Haggith

Sure the Nasdaq just soared above 17000 for the first time in its history today, even though the Dow fell by 200. However, for a number of reasons, the long delirious US stock market finally looks poised to fall this summer if not sooner. Most of the recent rise, of course, has been due to Nvidia and the AI craze, while the rest of the market is not looking nearly as strong. 350 stocks in the S&P 500 went down today, meaning there wasn’t broad participation in the rise. Hence, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is roaring while the Dow is falling. Read More

05.28.24- Central Banks Are Destroying Our Economies
André Marques

Central banks’ monetary policies are the most perverse government intervention. Their consequences are dire, last for a very long time, and people don’t perceive them as problems or don’t comprehend the damage they are doing. Monetary policy (monetary expansion and artificially low interest rates) has five main consequences that harm overall living standards. Read More

05.27.24- Revealed: Major Economic
Cracks and Crackpots
David Haggith

A huge crack just busted open in the US financial world. It reeks of the sulpherous fumes of the old financial crisis:

First Time Since GFC: Holders Of AAA 'CRE-Backed' Debt Hit With Losses

Uh, oh. That’s not good. Remember all the old Great-Recession talk about tranches and how the top tranche of mortgage-backed securities was suppose to merit a AAA rating because all the lower tranches had to be destroyed before any damage happened to the top? Then lower tranches suddenly got wiped out everywhere and top-rated tranches, held by major banks that only invest in secure stuff, went down in droves? Well, look what finally just happened for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis: Read More

05.25.24- They Want To Scare You With Myths Of "Unhampered Capitalism"
George Ford Smith

Bad ideas are sometimes the hardest to dethrone. It’s probably accurate to say most people think of money as the paper currency printed by governments. And it is money in the sense that it functions as a medium of exchange, but is it sound? Is it vulnerable to inflation? Its very existence is evidence that it is, so why are so many people reluctant to switch to a money that isn’t? Read More

05.23.24- The Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis No One Seems Prepared For
Kevin Stocklin

‘I think that there’s more to come,’ said Peter Earle, research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research.

It has been a year since a string of U.S. regional bank failures, together with the collapse of global heavyweight Credit Suisse, caused many to fear that a major financial crisis was imminent. Read More

05.23.24- The Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis No One Seems Prepared For
Kevin Stocklin

‘I think that there’s more to come,’ said Peter Earle, research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research.

It has been a year since a string of U.S. regional bank failures, together with the collapse of global heavyweight Credit Suisse, caused many to fear that a major financial crisis was imminent. Read More

05.22.24- Recession seems almost certain with 19 states in trouble already, expert warns
Theron Mohamed

Get ready for a recession that hammers consumers, squeezes companies, and drags down stocks, a veteran economist warned.

"There is a very high probability of a recession," Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's chief global economist, told WealthTrack in a recent interview. Read More

05.21.24- The Global Warming Climate Change Mega-Trend is the Inflation Mega-Trend
Nadeem Walayat

I won't bore you with worthless academic models that started from a 0.8c rise this century ranging all the way to +3c. The IPCC still cling onto hopes of limiting a rise in average temperatures to just +2c, on the basis of the world going carbon net zero by 2050 by means of removing 11gt of carbon per year, IPCC fiction vs current reality of just 2 million tonnes of carbon removal per year or 0.02% of target! It's too late where even as if by magic the clown politicians all sat down and agreed to go carbon neutral right now won't make any difference because Co2 is NOT the PRIMARY DRIVER! It's what tipped the climate over the edge in search of a new higher equilibrium, the temperature will now rise regardless of what humanity does to limit carbon emissions. Read More

05.21.24- And Now, for Someting Entirely Differrent: U.S. Imperialism through the Lens of Mises’s Nation, State, and Economy
Thomas J. DiLorenzo

In Nation, State, and Economy (1983), published in 1919 a few months before John Maynard Keynes’s The Economic Consequences of the Peace (2013), Ludwig von Mises analyzed the German nationalism, militarism, and imperialism that contributed to the advent of World War I (not that Germany alone was responsible for the war). In typical Misesian fashion, he blended economics, history, political philosophy, sociology, psychology, and other disciplines to assess the intellectual background of the German militarism of his day. Read More

05.20.24- The Global Warming Climate Change Mega-Trend is the Inflation Mega-Trend
Nadeem Walayat

I won't bore you with worthless academic models that started from a 0.8c rise this century ranging all the way to +3c. The IPCC still cling onto hopes of limiting a rise in average temperatures to just +2c, on the basis of the world going carbon net zero by 2050 by means of removing 11gt of carbon per year, IPCC fiction vs current reality of just 2 million tonnes of carbon removal per year or 0.02% of target! It's too late where even as if by magic the clown politicians all sat down and agreed to go carbon neutral right now won't make any difference because Co2 is NOT the PRIMARY DRIVER! It's what tipped the climate over the edge in search of a new higher equilibrium, the temperature will now rise regardless of what humanity does to limit carbon emissions. Read More

05.18.24- Markets' futile hopes for a rise in unemployment to lift stock values
just got a little downdraft.
David Haggith

We have long lived in a Fed-funded Wonderland where financial markets hope for bad news in order to rise because Fed rescues with helicopter cash have come to mean more than good business.

On May 3rd, I wrote the following about how a recent tiny rise in unemployment that the Fed has been looking for before it starts lowering interest rates to rescue the economy from a slump could very well just be another head fake: Read More

05.16.24- Are We Enjoying The Scam Yet?
Sean Ring

As I watch from afar, I wonder how Americans can take it. Seriously, American taxpayer largesse pays for untold amounts of charity, though it’s coerced from them through tax. I don’t know who said it, but he was right: the profits of capitalism pay for the follies of socialism.

How do we measure such things? Read More

05.15.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Christian Worship of
the False God of Politics
Thomas J. DiLorenzo

Millions of American “evangelical” Christians have been indoctrinated in the idea that they must be worshipful of Israeli politicians and bureaucrats. This is so because they are taught by preachers like John Hagee that the Biblesays that God will bless those who bless the nation of Abraham. The absurdity of it all is that pop religionists like Hagee falsely conflate the Israel of the Bible with today’s politicians and bureaucrats of the seventy-six-year-old government of the country of Israel. Read More

05.14.24- A “Restaurant Apocalypse” Is Starting To Sweep Across America, And That Is Really Bad News For The U.S. Economy
Michael Snyder

You can get a really good idea how the U.S. economy is doing by watching restaurants in your area.  When the economy is booming, restaurant parking lots are full and chains are feverishly establishing new locations.  But when the economy is struggling, restaurants get a lot less traffic and poor performing locations get shut down.  Sadly, in 2024 it appears that a “restaurant apocalypse” has started to sweep across America.  Most people have very little discretionary income to spend as a result of our cost of living crisis, and that is particularly true for our young adults.  Americans under the age of 40 love to eat out, but these days most of them are experiencing financial stress, and this is having an enormous impact on the restaurant industry. Read More

For Tomorrow We Die…
Brian Maher

The United States savings rate runs to 3.20% — down from 3.60% one month prior.

As history has it, 8.47% is par.

Meantime, 36% of Americans carry more credit card debt upon their shoulders than emergency savings in their pockets.

Mainstream economists inform us it is not a symptom of economic distress. It is rather a symptom of economic vigor. Read More

05.11.24- The Machinery of Fascism
Jeffrey Tucker

Fascism became a swear word in the U.S. and the U.K. during the Second World War. It’s been ever since, to the point that the content of the term has been drained away completely. It’s not a system of political economy but an insult.

If we go back a decade before the war, you find a completely different situation. Read any writings from polite society from 1932–1940 or so and you find a consensus that freedom and democracy, along with Enlightenment-style liberalism of the 18th century, were completely doomed. Read More

05.10.24- Man, Economy, and Financial Markets
Jon Wolfenbarger

As Murray N. Rothbard explained in his masterful economic treatiseMan, Economy, and State with Power and Market,

The distinctive and crucial feature in the study of man is the concept of action. Human action is defined simply as purposeful behavior. . . . The entire realm of praxeology and its best developed subdivision, economics, is based on an analysis of the necessary logical implications of this concept. Read More

05.09.24- Pessimism About The U.S. Economy Is Going To Have An Absolutely Massive Impact On The Outcome Of The Election In November
Michael Snyder

Americans are extremely pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy, and that is really bad news for Joe Biden.  Despite the glowing economic numbers that the Biden administration has been relentlessly feeding us, there is an overwhelming consensus among the American people that the economy is rapidly heading in the wrong direction.  Prices continue to rise, mass layoffs are happening all over the country, loans are going bad at a staggering rate, homelessness and poverty are spiking, and economic activity is slowing down all around us. Read More

05.08.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Rational Thinking...
Shared Beliefs
The Great O'Neill

In this series or commentaries I will highlight the pitfalls of rational thinking in our world today as it pertains to belief systems, historical perspectives, politics, and finally markets.  This article focuses on shared beliefs.

Over the last number of centuries intellectual inquiry has moved away from theology and revelation.  Academics refer to this change in thinking as the Enlightenment or the Age of Reason.  We are firmly in the logical reasoning mode of thinking now.  Supposedly, scientific inquiry trumps all other modes of thinking. Read More

05.07.24- Unification Of CBDCs? Global Banks Are Telling Us The End Of The Dollar System
Is Near
Brandon Smith

World reserve status allows for amazing latitude in terms of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve understands that there is constant demand for dollars overseas as a means to more easily import and export goods. The dollar’s petro-status also makes it essential for trading oil globally. This means that the central bank of the US has been able to create fiat currency from thin air to a far higher degree than any other central bank on the planet while avoiding the immediate effects of hyperinflation. Read More

05.06.24- The FALL of the WEST and why the world’s economic future belongs to China, Russia, India and Iran
Mike Adams

Introduction: This one chart explains what’s happening in the world today, as the collapse of the West accelerates, and the rise of Russia, China, Iran, India and BRICS nations emerges. The chart is from the book, “Why the West Can’t Win” by Fadi Lama. I interviewed this extraordinary author today, and the interview is linked and embedded below. His rigorous, data-driven analysis achieves mind-boggling conclusions about the direction of economic, military and industrial powers across our world, and the inescapable conclusion is that the West is finished. Obsolete. Read More

05.04.24- Stock Market Cliff Dive
David Haggith

News today really puts the Fed in a tough bind and strips away investor delusions about rate cuts.

Such a torrent of horrible economic news hit today, particularly for the Fed, that I cannot even begin to cover it all in a weekday editorial, so a good part of it will have to wait for my weekend Deeper Dive, and even that may not be able to cover it all; but I don’t want to miss a drop. Read More

05.03.24- The Lunacy of Taxing Unrealized Gains
Sean Ring

My goodness, I didn’t think I could hate the present administration more than I already do. It’s a fountain of idiotic ideas, starting with shutting down the Keystone XL pipeline to just sending $61 billion to Ukraine.

You may as well just set the money on fire. Read More

05.02.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Teams Are Set for World War III
Toby Rogers

I’ve seen some crazy things over the last few years but this is off-the-charts insane. 

Last week, Michael E. Mann spoke at the EcoHeath Alliance: Green Planet One Health Benefit 2024. Just to recap who each of these players are: Read More

Mortgage Rates over 7% and Heading Higher, Housing Market Still Frozen,
Lots of Buyers on Strike as Prices Still Too High
Wolf Richter

All that makes sense, but why are there still any cash-out refis when people could take cash out via HELOCs, without losing a 3% mortgage?

Mortgage rates continue to trudge higher from the abandoned Rate-Cut-Mania low. The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.13% in the latest week, the highest since early December, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today, as the 10-year Treasury yield has re-surged amid the Fed’s vigorous backpedaling on its December rate-cut visionsafter the presumed-vanquished inflation raised its ugly head again. Read More

03.18.24- A House of Cards on Stilts
James Rickards

What’s driving the current stock market frenzy? Is it a new bubble pure and simple? Is it driven by fundamentals? Does the Fed play an important role?

Let’s look at these factors and make a forecast of stock market index levels based on these and other inputs.

Trends in stock prices over the past year have largely been a function of market expectations about Fed rate cuts and market euphoria over strong economic data, including low unemployment rates. Read More

03.16.24- David Stockman: We've Hit A Fiscal & Monetary Dead End
Adam Taggart

View Video

03.15.24- Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise and What Happens Next
Doug Casey

International Man: The Bitcoin price is soaring.

It recently exceeded its previous all-time high of around $69,000, which was set in November 2021.

What are your thoughts?

Doug Casey: Right now, the world runs on the dollar standard. Almost all international trade is done with the US dollar. Still, it’s increasingly apparent to everybody worldwide that the US dollar is the unbacked liability of a bankrupt government. Read More

03.14.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: What Does the Presence of the National Guard Around the Country Signal?
Jon Rappoport

The Governor of New York has sent armed troops into the subways of New York City, to keep them safe.

Governor Newsom of California (never to be trusted) says he’s deploying troops along the Cali-Mex border to stop the smuggling of fentanyl into the country.

Governor DeSantis has sent troops to maintain order in Miami during spring break. Read More

03.13.24- The Biggest 2024 Election
James Rickards

Most investors are highly focused on the U.S. presidential election this November, and rightly so.

As of now, subject to change, that election is likely to feature a rematch of the Biden-Trump election of 2020. Their policies could not be more different.

Biden is a rubber stamp for every progressive policy from open borders, climate alarmism and support for abortion to expanding the war in Ukraine. Read More

03.12.24- Bitcoin Sets Another All-Time High as Crypto Sees Record Inflows
Ryan Weeks

Bitcoin is sustaining a record-breaking run, lifted by the unprecedented amounts of capital flowing into crypto products as well as a looming reduction in the digital token’s supply growth.

The original cryptocurrency reached an all-time peak of almost $72,968 on Tuesday, before paring the increase. It was the third record in five days. A record $2.7 billion flowed into crypto assets last week, according to a report from CoinShares international Ltd., with the bulk of that going to Bitcoin. Both the token and a gauge of the largest 100 coins are up roughly 70% this year. Read More

03.11.24- Who Gets the Credit?
David Haggith

Mega Corps flow with liquidity in a landscape of credit euphoria while small businesses can scarcely find enough of a trickle to survive.

For companies issuing major high-risk bonds, the business landscape looks like the Fed rate hikes never happened. Although the Fed has hiked interest to 80’s inflation-killing levels faster than it has ever raised interest and has held rates there for more than half a year (which should leave institutions parched), even risky credit is finding all the buyers it could want and more.  Read More

03.09.24- Lessons for the Future Republic
J.B. Shurk

Victor Davis Hanson and Dennis Prager are keen observers of American society.  Like honored physicians who examine the body politic for disease, they expertly diagnose what ails our country.  What they say and write matters.  It is significant, then, when both reach the conclusion that the United States is disintegrating. Read More

03.08.24- Bud Light Boycott Cost
Tranheuser-Busch $1.4 Billion
John Nolte

Tranheuser-Busch claimed it earned record revenues in 2023 but admitted its “full growth potential was constrained” in the U.S. due to a boycott after Bud Light signed transvestite Dylan Mulvaney as a sponsor.

Yeah, “constrained” by $1.4 BILLION.

More:

In North America, organic revenue, seen as the best measure of operating performance, plunged $1.4 billion last year as beer sales by volume tumbled in the region, primarily due to a decline in Bud Light sales in the United States. Beer makes up the lion’s share of Anheuser-Busch InBev’s revenue. Read More

03.07.24- Has The Banking Crisis Of 2024
Already Started?
Michael Snyder

We were warned that more banks would soon be getting into deep trouble.  In fact, just yesterday I told my readers to circle March 11thbecause that is when a very important Federal Reserve program that has been propping up our banks will be allowed to expire.  Unfortunately, we didn’t even have to wait for March 11th for the action to begin.  On Wednesday morning, shares of New York Community Bank were absolutely crashing.  Zero Hedge reported on the drama as it was unfolding… Read More

03.06.24- Income Needed To Afford A Home In The US Has Soared By 80% Since 2020
Tyler Durden

The Biden administration and its fawning PR industry, also known as the mainstream media, have over the past year been desperate to explain to ordinary deplorables Americans why the US economy is ackchyually doing "so much better" than most peasants give the 81-year-old's handlers credit for (see "The Economy Is Great. Why Do Americans Blame Biden", "Voters Are More Upbeat on Economy, but Biden Gets Little Benefit, WSJ Poll Shows", "Is Biden Going Down With the Ship Called Bidenomics?", "Why Biden Touts Jobs When Americans Care About Prices", and so on). Read More

03.05.24- A Macro Shift at Hand
Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa

Valuation extremes combined with macro inflection signals provide generational opportunities to position opposite the crowd for potentially large gains. At Crescat, we live for such times. We continue to believe we are on the cusp of a rare macroeconomic shift, like in 1972 and 2000, where a monumental investment setup exists on both the long and short sides of the market.

The years mentioned above immediately preceded the onset of roaring new secular bull markets in commodities coincident with the bursting of bubbles in crowded megacap growth stocks. The analogous scenario exists today. Read More

03.04.24- Banking on the next US financial crisis
Jeffrey Tucker

If a financial implosion does occur in 2024, as seems increasingly possible, it could actually be a blessing in disguise.

Doomsaying, as Jonah complained to God, is a game that a doomsayer cannot win. This applies in spades to predicting a financial crisis. If proven wrong, the doomsayer is discredited. If proven right, he may be blamed for helping to precipitate the crisis by undermining public confidence. Read More

03.02.24- Biden’s Debt Dilemma Uncovered: Economic Plane Crash Ahead?
Peter Reagn

If you were to do nothing but listen to President Biden and the corporate media prattle on about the economy, you might think things sound great!

You would hear endless claims of “record economic growth” and quarter after quarter of “historic GDP.” Read More

03.01.24- When Complex Systems Collide
Jim Rickards

At some point, systems flip from being complicated, which is a challenge to manage, to being complex. Complexity is more than a challenge because it opens the door to all kinds of unexpected crashes and events.

Their behavior cannot be reduced to their component parts. It’s as if they take on a life of their own. Complexity theory has four main pillars. The first is the diversity of actors. You’ve got to account for all of the actors in the marketplace. When you consider the size of global markets, that number is obviously vast. Read More

02.29.24- Has Bidenomics Set the Stage for Permanently Higher Inflation?
Peter Reagan

It’s quite possible that economic conditions are bad enough that price inflation will continue to persist, much like it did in the 1970s, and well into the 1980s.

In fact, three years into President Biden’s first term Americans are still spending a greater percentage of their income on food than at any point in the last 30 years: Read More

02.28.24- Traders Wanted. Losers Welcome.
Greg Guenthner

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

But if this adage is accurate, shouldn’t most investors buy a one-way ticket to their local looney bin?

Perhaps this is an insensitive comment. Let me clarify: I don’t really believe allinvestors are nuts. Even if they were, I’m pretty sure most of the country’s mental asylums shuttered decades ago. Since no more padded rooms are available, retail investors will just have to retreat back to their basement offices to read 10-Qs, download analyst reports, or whatever else they might be doing to pass the time while their stocks sink deeper into the abyss. Read More

02.27.24- Threat Of Strike Looms Large Over East, Gulf Coast Ports
Michael Rudolph

There’s an increasing abundance of skittishness surrounding the future of East and Gulf Coast ports.

The labor contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) is set to expire at the end of September. The ILA represents some 70,000 dockworkers, while the USMX represents employers at 36 coastal ports — including three of the U.S.’s five busiest ports: the Port of New York and New Jersey, the Port of Savannah, Georgia, and the Port of Houston. Read More

02.26.24- Nvidia, the WTF Chart of the Year. Tesla also Had WTF Charts of the Year
before Shares Plunged
Wolf Richter

Because these price spikes are a state of mind. And when that state of mind changes – see Tesla.

Nvidia is special because the dollars are suddenly so huge – a hair over $2 trillion at the open on Friday, and just a little below $2 trillion at the close. Over the past 12 months, market cap has spiked by $1.46 trillion, including the biggest-ever-for-any-stock one-day spike of $277 billion on Thursday, on exceeding revenue expectations by $2 billion. Read More

02.24.24- Weekend Rant:
The Primacy of Anti-Semitism
Ron Unz

As I write these words, the death toll in the Gaza massacre (not “war”) has surpassed 28,000, of whom some 70% are women and children. As I write these words, nothing has evidently changed in Jewish attitudes, of which roughly 80% of American Jews and 95% of Israeli Jews are satisfied with the brutal assault.[1]  As I write these words, nothing has deterred the pro-Israel, pro-Jewish attitude of the Biden administration or of the so-called leaders in Europe—Ursula von der Leyen, Roberta Metsola, Jens Stoltenberg, Olaf Scholz—as they offer all possible aid and assistance to the criminal Jewish state. These facts are extremely telling, but are unsurprising for those who have long studied the Jewish Question. Read More

02.23.24- Why Banks Want the System to Crash, Dollar to Plummet and For You to be Desperate
G. Edward Griffin

View Video

02.22.24- Worms in the Woodwork
James Rickards

Political news in the U.S. and wars abroad have pushed most economic news out of the headlines. Yet the economic news is more important than ever and will have a huge impact on stock and bond markets in the months ahead.

Here’s a summary of recent critical developments:

On the economy as a whole, headline numbers continue to look good. The Q42023 GDP was 3.3% (annualized). That put full-year 2023 GDP at 2.5% over 2022, a substantial increase in a year when many forecasters predicted a recession. Read More

02.21.24- It's All Falling apart So Quickly I Can't Keep up!
David Haggith

All major banks rumbling, Fed tightening beyond all expectations, Magnificent-Seven stocks tumbling, fears of Volmageddon 2.0, junk bonds getting junkier, war blowing inflation upward.

Today’s news is so flooded with stories that show the trends I’ve teen warning about that I can’t even begin to cover them all in the time I have to read through the news, organize it and then write an editorial. So, I’m going to go through them in a rather staccato style to give the thrust of each story. Maybe I’ll have more time to come back to some of the detail in next weekend’s Deeper Dive. Read More

02.20.24- This Is A Tale Of Two Americas, And Those At The Bottom Of The Economic Food Chain Are Being Hit Extremely Hard
Michael Snyder

If you have plenty of money and you are able to shield yourself from what is happening to the tens of millions of people that are wallowing in poverty, life in America is still good in 2024.  Stock prices have been hovering near record highs, and companies that cater to the rich and famous have been raking in the cash.  But for most of the rest of the country, things are not going so well.  Homelessness has been rising at the fastest rate we have ever seen, crime is out of control all over the nation, and large companies are laying off workers at a very frightening pace. Read More

02.19.24- All Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions
Michael Snyder

They were able to delay the U.S. economy’s day of reckoning, but they were not able to put it off indefinitely.  During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system and our politicians borrowed and spent trillions of dollars that we did not have.  All of that money caused quite a bit of inflation, but it also created a “sugar rush” for the economy.  In other words, economic conditions were substantially better than they would have been otherwise.  Unfortunately, there will be a great price to be paid for such short-term thinking.  From the federal government on down, our entire society is absolutely drowning in debt, and now it appears that our economic problems are about to go to the next level. Read More

02.17.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The American Dream Is Dead,
And THIS Is What Killed It
Peter Reagan

The total amount of publicly held debt in the United States is nearing $34 trillion. The historic and unsustainable pace that it has piled up over the last decade is insane.

In addition, GDP can’t keep up with the pace that debt keeps piling up. Expressed officially as the ratio of Public Debt to GDP, that sits at a record 120% – and it’s still rising. Read More

02.16.24- GDP is a Poor Measure
of Economic Health
J.R. MacLeod

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the most common measure of national wealth and economic growth. Yet the layman—and even many businessmen and economists—is taken aback when mainstream commentators and professionals get very excited about changes to GDP, which seem to have little to no impact on real economic conditions. While GDP can sometimes reflect real economic conditions, this is often when conditions are very favorable or unfavorable and where other techniques would still give a better indication of economic conditions, how those conditions developed, and how they could be changed. Read More

02.15.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Why the Carbon Hysteria is a Huge Threat to Your Personal Freedom
and Financial Wellbeing
Doug Casey

International Man: Western countries are leading the charge in restructuring their economies around the issue of climate change. They’re committed to a comprehensive agenda to “decarbonize” their economies by 2050.

What’s your take on this?

Doug Casey: To sum it up in one word, it’s insane. In two words, it’s criminally insane. Read More

02.14.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: 2024 - The Year America Ceases to Exist
Paul Craig Roberts

In 234 years of American history, no president has been criminally prosecuted.  The entire world knows that the felony and civil charges against Trump are fabricated and concocted.  It is obvious that the Democrat Party  uses law as a weapon against political opponents just as Stalin did.  Democrats are the worst and most dangerous enemy the Constitution and American citizens have ever had. Read More

02.13.24- Commercial Real Estate Implodes Across the News
David Haggith

Taking banks scattered around the world with it.

In my weekend Deeper Dive (“Banks Breaking Bad”) I wrote about how the US commercial real-estate (CRE) crisis is spreading like cancer to banks around the world. I woke up from that today to find Monday’s news is flooded with stories about the global spread of the CRE crisis. Consider some of the following:

Fitch Ratings, one of the major credit-rating agencies, noted the following problems in Asia-Pacific banks: Read More

02.12.24- Will Commercial Real Estate Trigger The Next Crisis?
Daniel Lacalle

The latest inflation figures in the United States look relatively positive, with a slight decline in annualized inflation rates. However, only three items of the CPI components declined in December. 

Persistent inflationary pressures that threaten to undermine the rate-cut narrative that financial markets have adopted are present below the surface. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to pump the monetary laughing gas machine, anticipating further rate cuts and monetary easing to support multiple expansions. However, in this wave of fervent optimism, there are dark clouds looming on the horizon: another wave of regional bank troubles added to the burgeoning crisis in the commercial real estate market. Read More

02.10.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Geopolitics Of World War III
Michael Hochberg and Leonard Hochberg

Introduction

On January 2, 2024, Foreign Minister Israel Katz proclaimed “We’re in the middle of World War III against Iran [led] radical Islam, whose tentacles are already in Europe.”   He claimed that Israel, in engaging in a war against Hamas and other Iranian proxies, was defending “everyone.” Although his rhetoric may seem overblown to many in the United States and Europe, it should not be dismissed out of hand.  Sometimes, regional conflicts, such as the Japanese conquest of Manchuria of 1931-32 or the Spanish Civil War of 1936-39, foreshadow dangers that are more geographically extensive and militarily intense. Read More

02.09.24- Does the Economy Need Migrants?
Peter St Onge

Do immigrants solve labor shortages?

This is a standard argument of the left, one they use to import millions of unskilled migrants into the US and Europe.

With immigration becoming a top voter concern in both America and Europe -- to the point it's driving millions of voters to populist candidates -0- the left-wing media is laying out the gaslight, trying to convince people that we need millions of unvetted quasi-educated foreigners to avert a demographic crisis. Read More

02.08.24- The Commercial Real Estate Crisis Of 2024 Is Going To Be A Doozy…
Michael Snyder

Over the last several years we have seen commercial real estate values plummet dramatically all over the United States.  One of the reasons why this is happening is because millions of Americans started working from home during the pandemic, and many of them never returned to the office once the pandemic subsided.  Another reason why this is happening is because there has been a mass exodus of businesses from our core urban areas.  Conditions have rapidly deteriorated in many of our largest cities, and it is exceedingly difficult to run a profitable business in the midst of an environment of constant theft and violence.  Ultimately, it is very easy to understand why commercial real estate values have crashed, and they will almost certainly go even lower. Read More

02.07.24- 50% Stock Correction;
Then Silver Goes Ballistic
Chris Vermeulen

View Video

02.06.24- Global Currency Shift as the Dollar
Cannibalizes Itself
Peter Reagan

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving precious metals and the overall economy. Stories include: Global de-dollarization as a major driver of gold prices, gold demand statistics for 2023, and how silver is becoming more industrial by the day.

The U.S. dollar is losing ground to gold Read More

02.05.24- Easy Money Creates Hard Times
Alex Kotliarskyi

We have yet to reach a full reckoning of the consequences of the era of easy money, but it’s abundantly clear that it ruined us.

The damage was incremental at first, but the perverse incentives and distortions of easy money — zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), credit available without limits to those who are more equal than others — accelerated the institutionalization of these toxic dynamics throughout the economy and society. Read More

02.03.24- The Great Growth Hoax
Jeffrey Tucker

For several days, ever since the supposedly amazing GDP report from quarter four 2023, we’ve been blasted by the media about how great the economy is doing.

It’s exasperating because these claims do not fit with human experience. Last we heard from the Census Bureau, real income is down, and no one doubts it. Everyone, or at least most average people, has felt strong downgrades in living standards over these last four years. Read More

02.02.24- Wall Street’s Narrative vs. Reality
BrianMaher

“As goes January, so goes the year.”

So runs an ancient Wall Street wheeze.

January 2024 has ended. How did January 2024 go?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened January at 38,033.

It closed January at 38,355. Read More

02.01.24- “Tax Relief Act” Exposed: Something Ominous Lurks Inside…
Peter Reagan

As it stands right now, it appears like Biden’s entire first term will have been plagued by varying degrees of unacceptable price inflation (some of which was historic).

No matter how the corporate media spins it, he just can’t seem to lead the country out of this persistent economic trend. The rate of price inflation is easing, but core inflation remains at a pace not seen since the early 1990s. Read More

01.31.24- "Theory Of Reflexivity"
And Does It Matter?
Lance Roberts

I received an email this past week concerning George Soros’ “Theory Of Reflexivity.”

“I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the internet and fiber did in 1999.” Read More

01.30.24- Could Texas Survive
as an Independent Nation?
Martin Armstrong

The severity of the migrant crisis may be new to those who do not live on a bordering state. Yet Texas has been grappling with this issue for years, resulting in countless calls for a secession from the United States or “Texit.” How would Texas manage as an independent nation? Read More

01.29.24- Emergency PSA to All Texas Citizens
The Tactical Hermit

Attention! All True Texas Citizens!

We are NOT Voting or Protesting Our Way Out of This Mess.

The Only Way Forward is SECESSION, plain and simple.

If you are going to show your hand to the Federals, I Suggest you Show it in a meaningful way. Read More

01.27.24- Gold Forecast & U.S. Stocks Next 'Kill Zone'
Jim Curry

With the action seen over the past month, Gold has been locked inside an expected correction phase, with the U.S. stock market still inside a larger 'vacuum' period - one which will take us into the next 'kill zone' date for that market. 

First, a look at the position of the Gold cycles. 

As per my last article from mid-December of last year, Gold was in a correction phase, one which was expected to last into early this year. This was due to the configuration of our 72-day time cycle, which is currently the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, and which is shown on the chart below: Read More

01.26.24- “Blistering!”
Brian Maher

CNBC:

“The U.S. economy grew at [a] blistering 3.3% pace in Q4 while inflation pulled back.”

CNBC cites the latest economic data, issuing this morning from the Department of Commerce. Read More

01.25.24- Financial Collapse Imminent,
America Headed for the Gutter
Doug Casey

View Video

01.24.24- It Is A Bloodbath
For The Mainstream Media
Michael Snyder

Should any of us be surprised that the news industry is being hit by a massive wave of layoffs?  Survey after survey has shown that the American people have lost faith in the mainstream media, and millions of us have decided to turn to other sources for news and information.  Mainstream news outlets have been bleeding viewers and readers for years, and now many of the biggest names in the news industry are losing staggering amounts of money.  It was only a matter of time before we witnessed large scale layoffs, and now they are here. Read More

01.23.24- The Dark Ages For US Housing And Manufacturing
Peter Schiff

The president touted a manufacturing renaissance. However, economic indices show US manufacturing entering a Dark Age. Home sales are not looking bright, either.

Peter explains in his recent podcast:

Manufacturing is a complete disaster. In fact, we got the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index later in the week. This was supposed to be -6.7. It came out at -1.6. And the prior month (which was originally reported as -10.5) was revised to -12.8.”  Read More

01.22.24- Capitalism—A New Idea
Jeff Thomas

Capitalism, whether praised or derided, is an economic system and ideology based on private ownership of the means of production and operation for profit.

Classical economics recognises capitalism as the most effective means by which an economy can thrive. Certainly, in 1776, Adam Smith made one of the best cases for capitalism in his book, An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (known more commonly as The Wealth of Nations). But the term “capitalism” actually was first used to deride the ideology, by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, in The Communist Manifesto, in 1848. Read More

01.20.24- December home sales slump to close out worst year since 1995
Diana Olick

Sales of previously owned homes fell 1% in December compared with November to 3.78 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 6.2% lower than in December 2022, marking the lowest level since August 2010.

Full-year sales for 2023 came in at 4.09 million units, the lowest tally since 1995. Read More

01.19.24- Weekly jobless claims post lowest reading since September 2022
Jeff Cox

The labor market continued to show surprising resiliency in the early days of 2024, with initial jobless claims posting an unexpected drop last week.

Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 187,000 for the week ended Jan. 13, the lowest level since Sept. 24, 2022, the Labor Department reportedThursday. The total marked a 16,000 decline from the previous week and came in below the Dow Jones estimate of 208,000. Read More

01.18.24- What To Do As "US Empire" Crumbles And Global Shipping Goes Back To A 19th Century World Of Piracy
Michael Every

Decolonise Economics!

Markets started 2024 as wildly optimistic --and wildly wrong-- about rates as they did 2023: is there something structurally wrong with economics, or just them? After all, yesterday’s US retail sales were much stronger than expected, industrial production better than consensus, and while the Fed’s Beige Book said the labor market was cooling, with increased consumer “price sensitivity”, businesses expectations were positive and/or improved. In other words, doing nothing is a realistic option for the Fed. Read More

01.17.24- "Markets Are Overlooking How Much Worse This Can Get, How Inflationary
It Could Prove"
Michael Every

Waller Way to Behave

Points of order today. First, we need to underline the major disconnect between market pricing for aggressive 2024 Fed rate cuts -- including new hedges that the Fed cuts by 50bp in March-- and how the actual economy is still performing. Second, we have to ponder what drove the Fed to make the dovish statements in late 2023 that drove, and still drive, that kind of wild pricing. Third, we have to deal with the Fed, and others, walking it all back just weeks later. Read More

01.16.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: DEI, Airplane Crashes,
and Bad Medicine
J. Robert Smith

How safe are you nowadays on commercial airliners? How safe will you be tomorrow? Are airlines sacrificing safety at the altar of “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI)?” Who do you want piloting the jetliner you’re on, the best, most experienced pilots or box-check hires?

Flipping the page, medical schools will graduate bevvies of DEI doctors as the decade unwinds. What if you need open-heart surgery? Cancer treatment? Won’t you need a sound diagnosis for starters? Will the most capable physicians attend you? Or will you have to settle for the right color, right gender, right sexual orientation, pick-your-pronouns person in a white lab coat? Read More

01.15.24- So... About Bitcoin
John Rubino

ETFs just made it easy to buy. Should we? 

Everyone on Earth wishes they’d loaded up on Bitcoin back when it was, like, $10. 

The fact that most investors have chosen not to ride that particular rollercoaster can be attributed to two things. First, cryptocurrencies were complicated to buy and store safely, which put them beyond the reach of most non-techies (myself included). Second, the use case for cryptos wasn’t yet clear. In other words, most people didn’t - and still don’t - know what they are and why they exist. Read More

01.13.24- Weekend Rant: Banks Tank, Cooling Inflation Heats up, and Global Warming
Freezes over Faster than Hell
David Haggith

Welcome to the "Year of Chaos."

Every major bank reporting for Q4 2023 tripped over the threshold for one reason or another today—profits down, penalties up, etc.—helping stock investors find the exit. Recession risks got noted as higher than thought as the yield curve begins to un-invert. While normally that is a sign of impending recession, there are, of course, those in the news today claiming, “Not this time” in order to punch the pivot narrative again today. This time is special! Read More

01.12.24- 4 in 10 Companies Anticipate
Layoffs in 2024
Julia Toothacre

As suspicion of a recession in 2024 mounts, workers fear their job security.

To find out how many companies believe layoffs are likely next year, in December, ResumeBuilder.com surveyed 906 business leaders at organizations with over 10 employees. Read More

01.11.24- This Stock’s Grounded!
Jame Rickards

What happened to Boeing, the former gold standard of American industry? Nothing good, as I’ll show you today.

Simply put, Boeing isn’t the company it used to be.

By now, I’m sure you’ve heard about the Jan. 6 near crash of a Boeing 737 Max 9 operated by Alaska Airlines, after the fuselage door blew off the plane. That caused decompression and the use of emergency oxygen. Read More

01.10.24- What's the Source of the Astounding 50% Boost in Corporate Profits?
Charles Hugh Smith

No wonder Corporate America added $1.2 trillion in profits to be distributed to the elites of America: everything is diminished, stripped of quality and rendered miserable. Too bad there’s no real competition left in the US economy.

One of the most extraordinary economic marvels of the past decade is the astounding 50% leap in corporate profits, from $2.4 trillion (pre-tax) pre-pandemic lockdown to $3.6 trillion (pre-tax) in the years since the lockdown ended. Read More

01.09.24- The “Disbelief Phase”
Is Coming to an End...
Greg Guenthner

Investors are already pining for the good ol’ days of 2023.

Yes, we’re just five trading days into 2024. But it appears Mr. Market’s New Year’s resolution was to pulverize the bulls into a fine powder and leave just about everyone wondering how everything changed so quickly.

December trading finished with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posting their ninth winning week in a row as stocks rode a wave of frantic buying off the October lows. But from the opening bell of the first trading day of 2024 (which frankly feels like a lifetime ago), the market started to get a bit tricky. Read More

01.08.24- The Great Taking Exposes The Financial End Game
Bert Olivier

He introduces the book on p. 1 in uncompromising terms: 

What is this book about? It is about the taking of collateral, all of it, the end game of this globally synchronous debt accumulation super cycle. This is being executed by long-planned, intelligent design, the audacity and scope of which is difficult for the mind to encompass. Included are all financial assets, all money on deposit at banks, all stocks and bonds, and hence, all underlying property of all public corporations, including all inventories, plant and equipment, land, mineral deposits, inventions and intellectual property. Privately owned personal and real property financed with any amount of debt will be similarly taken, as will the assets of privately owned businesses, which have been financed with debt. If even partially successful, this will be the greatest conquest and subjugation in world history. Read More

01.06.24- Has The Global Food Inflation Crisis
Been Averted?
Tyler Durden

The latest United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization data shows global food prices have just recorded the biggest annual decline since 2015. This is terrific news for emerging market countries whose governments have been battling high food inflation with mounting risks of social instability.  The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of globally traded food commodities, averaged around 118.51 at the end of 2023, down 10% from the previous year. Read More

01.05.24- The Year of the 493?
Brian Maher

Is this the year of the 493?

The 493? Here we refer to the 493 stocks of the S&P 500 — the 493 stocks not named Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon or Meta.

These are the seven wagon-pullers that have hauled the stock market to present extremes.

The S&P 500 galloped 24% last year under their behemoth influence.

The remaining 493 lagged far behind them. Read More

01.04.24- The Houthi Butterfly Flaps Its Wings
Sean Ring

Now that my parents are only half a mile away, long-forgotten memories have flooded back. Thanks to my mother’s unimpeachable cooking skills, I’m again enjoying all the trappings of my youth.

One such happiness is eating simple pasta and tomato sauce. Sure, my mother’s lasagna is second to none, but that’s more of a holiday dish. (Indeed, I rolled home after Christmas dinner. It’s too bad Pam and Micah had to push me uphill!) Read More

01.03.24- 2024: Here’s What Happens
James Rickards

In 2023, we saw the outbreak of a banking crisis (that isn’t over), a new Middle East war break out in Gaza, two states ban Trump from the ballot in the 2024 elections and the mainstreaming of AI, among other things.

All I can say is strap in, because 2024 is setting up to be even more chaotic than 2023. That’s right, 2024 will be more tumultuous and shocking than 2023. Let’s first address the election. Read More

01.02.24- World's Largest Lithium Reserve Discovered Beneath California's Salton Sea
Alex Kimani

The U.S. Department of Energy has made its second major lithium discovery this year, both of which promise to make the country self-sufficient in the critical battery metal for decades. The DoE has discovered a massive lithium deposit beneath California’s Salton Sea, holding an estimated 18 million tons of lithium. Read More

01.01.24- This Widely Followed Metric Is Flirting With Danger. Does It Mean a Stock Market Crash Is Imminent in 2024?
Sean Williams

Historically speaking, this has been a harbinger of bad news to come for Wall Street.

Over long periods, the stock market is an unquestioned moneymaker. When compared to other asset classes, such as bonds, oil, gold, and housing, the stock market has delivered a considerably higher annualized rate of return over the long term. Read More