10.12.13- Never insult anyone by accident.
Johnny Silver Bear As the editor of the Silver Bear Cafe, I spend most of my time researching current events. I explore the markets, the economic war that is being waged on the middle class, precious metals, the Federal Reserve, energy, and how to go about surviving financially. In this weekly column I will attempt to condense the week's events and examine how the news might affect your pocketbook. JSB Financial Markets I know dozens of folks who are, apparently convinced that the economy is in great shape because of the seeming strength of the stock market. The suggestion that they may be basing their assessments on faulty data usually falls on deaf ears. I mean, after all, why would mainstream media sources lie to us? These folks get all their news from the presstitutes who are either mindless puppets, or are in on the charade. They are all in the employ of those who are wrecking the country from behind the scenes. The fundamentals of the stock market in general, are in worse shape the they have been for decades. P and E ratios are way out of whack. This week the VIX had a rather schizophrenic performance. After rising mid week to 22.5, it closed the week under 16. "If the VIX closes above the 18 area, it is quite possible that a move to the 22-24 region would happen quickly. This area marks double the 2013 low and the most recent August low. A close above 18 would suggest negative sentiment is building instead of decreasing, pressuring stocks and heightening volatility expectations in the process." The sheeple will not stay stupid forever, although they have managed to stay stupid for much longer than I thought possible. The stock exchange is a house of cards and it's about to collapse under its own weight. The Federal Reserve is rapidly losing the ability to keep it or anything else artificially propped up. When it starts to crash, the Sheeple will flee like Lemmings. Just as in the story of Joshua fighting the battle of Jerico, "and the walls came tumbling down"... They're getting hilarious, the shenanigans on Wall Street. The third quarter has been over for almost two weeks, and now, after reality has been clearer than daylight for months, estimates for corporate earnings are still being pushed down, after endless blah-blah-blah by analysts whose blood-optimism level is way above the legal limit, and after dizzying nonsense regurgitated by hype mongers on Wall Street. But reality is here. After bamboozling investors into thinking that these sky-high stock prices were justified by sky-high "forward-looking" earnings, analysts are now chopping their estimates for these "forward-looking" earnings into smithereens so that when their beleaguered companies report, they can beat "expectations." Revenues have been lousy all year, and so, despite feverish cost cutting as just about the sole corporate strategy these days, earnings are sliding. A year ago, analysts still expected earnings in Q3 2013 to grow 15.9%. What were they smoking? I don't know either. By the beginning of Q3, estimates for earnings growth hit 8.5%, according to Thompson Reuters IBES. Since then, they dropped nearly 5 percentage points! This week alone, they plunged 70 basis points from 4.5% growth to 3.8%. And financials, oh my! They're pulling out all accounting gimmicks in their toolbox to show some income, but even that wasn't enough for JPMorgan which reported a loss today. So estimates for earnings growth are now down to 8.6%. Given that the Fed still hands them $85 billion a month, you'd think they'd know what do with it. Turns out, they don't. But take financials out of the equation, and Q3 earnings are expected to grow only 2.8%. That's stagnation. At the beginning of the year, Q4 earnings were still expected to grow by an inexplicable 17.6%. Estimates have since come down to a growth of 10.6%. But we're already in Q4, and Q4 is shaping up to be a tough one, tougher apparently than even Q3. But don't tell the analysts. They like being delusional for as long as they can. The thing is, they've got to somehow justify these stock prices. On the Economic War Front We have all been duped by the propaganda of political correctness. We have been told that if we question or admonish the actions of black people, that we are racists. We have been convinced that if we question or condemn the actions of the Israel Lobby, that we are anti Semites. There are an appalling number of people in our government who maintain dual citizenship as American/Israelis. This is irrefutably unconstitutional. And yet, through the actions of the Israel Lobby, a large percentage of Americans are put at risk. The Israelis are not at all concerned with Americans. They are solely concerned with themselves. The Israel lobby is a diverse coalition of individuals and groups that seek to influence the foreign policy of the United States in support of the Israeli regime. We have been convinced that if we oppose the welfare state that we are heartless, self absorbed greed heads. And we have been persuaded to believe that if we oppose big pharma, big insurance, big agribusiness or big banks, we are un-American. Meanwhile we, as middle class Americans, are being demonized and targeted for extinction by the government itself. There seems to be a conspiracy afoot to disarm, disentitle and disempower a huge faction of Americans. Almost a third of us have already been ideologically castrated and are kept under control by the state's provision of stale bread and bad circuses. Forty-nine million are currently on supplemental nutrition assistance. Another fifty-three million receive a federal stipend of some kind. That amounts to almost a third of the citizenry that are receiving government assistance. Government employees and contractors make up another thirty-seven million, and they certainly are not moved to offer any reservation, resistance or opposition to the godless leviathan. I don' t know about you, but it concerns me that the total percentage of folks on-the-dole has doubled in the last thirty years. Because the numbers are increasing exponentially, at the rate that we are going, everyone will be on-the-dole in another nine years. But wait. Everyone can't be on the dole! That is an economic impossibility. The economic cracking point has already been reached. Funny money and Keynesian duct tape are about to be outed as a fraudulent and insane pretense. Why has this happened? Who is calling the shots here? Certainly not our mental midget fearless leader. To me it exhibits a very troubling pattern. That pattern, at first glance, reeks of a classic Marxist takeover. But, upon further inspection, I suspect a Plutocracy will eventually be recognized as the end goal of those who purport to champion a New World Order. It's all by and for those who would be kings. It is being administered by maniacs through a tyrannical process. We all "gotta do what we gotta do". Protect yourself. Back in 2008, when then-candidate Obama promised Joe the Plumber and the rest of America that he intended to spread the wealth around, most democrat and liberal voters embraced the notion of wealth redistribution under the guise of equality. A universal health care plan, that would be free for all Americans, was the promise from the candidate of hope and change. Tens of millions of Americans jumped on the bandwagon waving their flags, fainting at his appearances, and fawning over his every word. None ever thought about where the money would come from for all this new found wealth he promised to bestow upon them. But those who understand that socialism, communism and governance by the collective are failed experiments, warned where that money would come from. It would be taken by force from the toils of the middle class, and it'd impoverish them in the process. Now the myrmidons who once vehemently supported the policies of President Barack Obama without question are coming to the realization that when Obama spoke about spreading the wealth he actually meant their wealth too! Precious Metals Some lawmakers push for less regulation — regulations, they explain, are bad, and stifle the economy. Others like to argue for more regulation — regulations protect the middle class. But the problem isn't regulation per se, the problem is corruption. The government seems to be, almost entirely, made up of would be Keynesians. Now I don't want to give these guys any undue credit. Most of our esteemed body of lawmakers have no understanding, what-so-ever, of economics. What they do understand, however, is the fact that they can borrow seemingly endless amounts of money from the Federal Reserve. In fact, due to the excesses in largess, the rest of the world has turned its collective back on loaning the U.S. Federal Government any money at all, through the purchase of U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. Governmental Budget is now solely dependant of the Federal Reserve loans for all budgetary expenditures. This situation has prompted the "turning of a blind eye" towards the matter of regulatory corruption. Precious Metals cannot be allowed to compete with fiat currencies. If all monies required the backing of something of value, anything of value, there would be a mere fraction of the quantity of currency that is presently in circulation. There remains in place, a Constitutional mandate that requires Treasury issued American money to be backed by precious metals. If all countries were required to back their respective currencies with precious metals, they couldn't afford to have wars. Such a seemingly far fetched situation is not as unlikely as you might first expect. The instant that an optional form of currency is made available, one that is backed by precious metals, the world will beat a path to its door. That is why our government is so frantically adamant about prohibiting such a currency from being introduced. That was, essentially, the main objective behind our involvement in Iraq (well, Cheney did manage to nepotistically direct $60 billion to Haliburton through non competitive contracts) Afghanistan was pretty much the same except for the additional desire to control the opium crop. Libya was invaded because of Gaddafi's threat to introduce the gold dinar. Syria, because it will mean the severe degradation of the petrodollar through competition with Gasprom, and soon to be Iran for, pretty much, all the reasons stated above. It is a maniacal drive to maintain the American fiat dollar, backed by nothing, as the principal medium of exchange for the purchase of oil, and, as a result, allow it to maintain its austere position as the world's reserve currency. So, as a result, TBTF banks such as J.P. Morgan, et al, are allowed to violate every law in the book when it comes to the criminal suppression of the price of gold and silver for a profit. It is done with the complicity of the Federal Reserve, and the government itself. It is the corruption of all parties involved, from law makers, regulators, law enforcement, and judicial oversight, all the way up to the Executive branch who, while remaining ignorant of the tenets of economic theory, do understand the process of under the table payouts. The are keenly aware of which side their bread is buttered on.
Energy A recurring theme on this web site addresses the ongoing misinformation campaigns that have been, and continue to be, waged by the the government. These campaigns are not waged out of any concern for the well being of the population (most result in a diminished state of well being) but rather they are products of a propaganda machine that is disseminated on behalf of private industrial donors who ply corrupt politicians with contributions to their re-election campaigns. If you believe that marijuana is dangerous and those that possess it should be prosecuted, then you are one more example of someone who has been successfully dumbed down by the lies spread by agents of the state. Hemp cultivation and production do not harm the people or the environment. In fact, the cultivation of hemp could result in an economic and agricultural renaissance that would bring this country out of the throes of depression, right now! Recent denouncements of any harm provided by its use have emancipated marijuana in both Colorado and Washington. Several other states will soon follow. We have all been collectively duped. The USDA concluded that hemp produces 4 times as much pulp with at least 4 to 7 times less pollution than any comparable fiber producing plant. It has a short growing season...It can be grown in any state...The long roots penetrate and break the soil to leave it in perfect condition for the next year's crop. The dense shock of leaves, 8 to 12 feet above the ground, chokes out weeds. ...hemp, this new crop can add immeasurably to American agriculture and industry.' In the 1930s, innovations in farm machinery would have caused an industrial revolution when applied to hemp. This single resource could have created millions of new jobs generating thousands of quality products. Hemp, if not made illegal, would have brought America out of the Great Depression. Henry Ford's first Model-T was built to run on hemp gasoline and the CAR ITSELF WAS CONTRUCTED FROM HEMP! On his large estate, Ford was photographed among his hemp fields. The car, 'grown from the soil,' had hemp plastic panels whose impact strength was 10 times stronger than steel; Popular Mechanics, 1941. William Randolph Hearst (Citizen Kane) and the Hearst Paper Manufacturing Division of Kimberly Clark owned vast acreage of timberlands. The Hearst Company supplied most paper products. Paper can be produced from hemp at 1/20th the cost, and without the need to ravage the forests. Patty Hearst's grandfather, a destroyer of nature for his own personal profit, stood to lose billions because of hemp. In 1937, Dupont patented the processes to make plastics from oil and coal. Dupont's Annual Report urged stockholders to invest in its new petrochemical division. Synthetics such as plastics, cellophane, celluloid, methanol, nylon, rayon, Dacron, etc., could now be made from oil. Since all the afore mentioned products can also be made from hemp at a fraction of the cost of oil, natural hemp industrialization would have ruined over 80% of Dupont's business. Andrew Mellon became Hoover's Secretary of the Treasury and Dupont's primary investor. He appointed his future nephew-in-law, Harry J. Anslinger, to head the Federal Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs. Secret meetings were held by these financial tycoons. Hemp was declared dangerous and a threat to their billion dollar enterprises. For their dynasties to remain intact, hemp had to go. These men took an obscure Mexican slang word: 'Marijuana' and pushed it into the consciousness of America. A media blitz of 'yellow journalism' raged in the late 1920s and 1930s. Hearst's newspapers ran stories emphasizing the horrors of Marijuana. The menace of Marijuana made headlines. Readers learned that it was responsible for everything from car accidents to loose morality. Films like 'Reefer Madness' (1936), 'Marijuana: Assassin of Youth' (1935) and 'Marijuana: The Devil's Weed' (1936) were propaganda designed by these industrialists to create an enemy. Their purpose was to gain public support so that anti-Marijuana laws could be passed. If you are reading this you are already aware of the tyranny. If we all questioned the tripe we are constantly being fed, we would all be a lot better off.
The Fed I have been editing the Silver Bear Cafe now for, almost, twelve years. During that time I have diligently studied the market mechanisms. I have become obsessed with tying to identify the limits of fiscal insanity as it relates to the economy. I have always been reluctant to post chart heavy missives as I doubt that technical analysis can offer much insight into a rigged market. I believe that the markets have been so perversely manipulated that there are not enough jail cells in existence that could be capable of interring all the perps. Many of my studies have been centered around inflation and the Federal Reserve. With the helpful tutelage of scholars, the likes of G. Edward Griffin, I became acutely aware of, not only the motives of the Darkside, but its origins and history as well. When one understands that inflation is an exclusive product of central banking in general and the Federal Reserve in particular, a basic understanding of modern day economics becomes evermore attainable. As I have stated many times before and expect that this will not be the last time I bring it up, economics is not the easiest subject to broach. Consequently, not one in one-hundred Americans have even the slightest grasp of the subject. And, as a result of that revolting development, the Federal Reserve has been able to get away with murder. To make a long story short, the economy has been destroyed by the Federal Reserve. Because the nature of its power is based on false foundations, the effect of its policies has brought the world to the brink of collapse. They have created and then forwarded a false paradigm." It's a cheatin' situation". Last week, we began an article on the Central Bank Death Dance, and made it part 1, [here]. The main premise we want to address is why the broadly known demand factors for gold and silver are not being reflected in higher values. People are not asking the right question[s] in determining that answer. What few are considering, or may not be aware of, is the US government defense of its fiat currency. Part 1 attempted to put the fiat Federal Reserve Note into its true context, for its defense is what keeps gold and silver at purposefully suppressed levels. The entire Western world has its fiat teat caught in a financial ringer from which it will never extract itself at the expense of non-banking businesses and the man and woman on the street, all of whom will suffer badly. To allow gold to rise in value exposes the fiat sham being perpetrated by all Western governments. They will not let that happen. Right now, the federal government has become isolated by the fast-rising Eastern powers, most notably China and Russia, along with the other BRICS nations. They have had it with the US exporting inflation to the rest of the world, via the petro-dollar as a world reserve currency, and the endless issuing of Treasury Bonds, bonds which have become toxic and are being avoided by the BRICS countries, and soon even Europe, already under water with them but still in bed with Western central banks as the [mis]guiding forces. The US is losing the war against Russia for supremacy in supplying energy to Europe. Gazprom is the largest energy producer in the world, yet few in America know of it. Russia seeks to be the energy supplier for Europe, and that would end the dominance of the US petro-dollar, aka world reserve currency status. Losing that status puts the US into the Third-World status it has already entered, starting well over a decade ago. The US has no place to turn to sell its [unwanted]Treasury Bonds because the BRICS nations are now using non-dollar denominated contracts, cutting the US out of the picture. Enter China, and the rise of the petro-yuan. China will become the world's largest oil importer some time next year, and it has already become Saudi Arabia's largest customer. China is converting its huge oil imports into the Yuan, not the dollar. More and more countries are setting up currency swaps with China, including the UK! Even the US' closest ally is forming important financial links with China as it becomes more and more financially isolated. More on the UK?US relations in a moment. In the entire world, which government is the only government beating the drums for war? The regime led by a Nobel Peace Prize winner, Barack Obama. Why has he been so desperate to bomb Syria? Because of a few hundred deaths from chemicals, versus the hundreds of thousands of deaths caused by the US in it use of chemical warfare? That is a "chemical" smoke screen to hide the more [poorly]calculated reasons. Financial Survival Since the beginning of the Republic, but more and more often over the last fifty years, elected officials of the Federal Government, as well as every other government employee who is required, by law, to take the oath of office, have increasingly ignored the tenets of that oath and have defiled Constitutional Law in doing so. The body of the Oath of Office is as follows: I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So help me God. It is apparent that the section of the oath that seems violated, almost daily, by politicians is "I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without reservation or purpose of evasion;" The congress and the executive branch has been knowingly and routinely pushing and passing legislation which is blatantly in direct violation of the Constitution. They present legal challenges to a corrupt and bought off Supreme Court for final disposition. It has become increasingly apparent that a judgement from the Supreme Court has more to do with money and partisan politics that any consideration of Constitutional law. How else could you explain the abomination, which is Obamacare, was found to meet Constitutional muster by a group of ethically challenged lawyers in black robes? The years since JFK's murder have proven our elected representatives have little or no interest in presenting or passing legislation that is, in any way, compliant with the spirit of the Constitution of the United Staters. A virtual plethora of legislative crap such as Patriot Act, GM takeover, NDAA, Bankster bailouts, Operating government without formal budget, mandated Healthcare and legislative assaults on almost every amendment all point to an out of control tyrannical government our founders never intended but went to great lengths to warn us about. Here are three questions you should ask yourself: Does the Constitution empower the Supreme Court to judge the constitutionality of federal laws and regulations, and uphold or strike them down as the court sees fit? No. The powers of the U.S. Supreme Court are listed in Article III, Section 2. There is no mention of judging the constitutionality of laws and regulations in Article III, Section 2. Does the Constitution prohibit the states from determining the constitutionality of federal laws and regulations, and uphold or strike them down as they see fit? No, the Constitution does not prohibit the states from exercising this power. In fact, nowhere in the constitution is the judging of laws to be constitutional even addressed. What does the Constitution have to say about the powers not delegated to the United States federal government by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States? For this answer I refer to Amendment X which states: "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people." I have previously touched on the subject of the oath of office, and find it is treated as" just words to be said", but no one holds those taking, and then violating the oath responsible. Please understand that violating the oath is codified as a violation of federal law and executive order. The following paragraph provides the most detailed listing of codes covering the subject of the Constitutional oath, and penalties for its violation, that I could find. Federal law regulating oath of office by government officials is divided into four parts along with an executive order which further defines the law for purposes of enforcement. 5 U.S.C. 3331, provides the text of the actual oath of office members of Congress are required to take before assuming office. 5 U.S.C. 3333 requires members of Congress sign an affidavit that they have taken the oath of office required by 5 U.S.C. 3331 and have not or will not violate that oath of office during their tenure of office as defined by the third part of the law, 5 U.S.C. 7311 which explicitly makes it a federal criminal offense (and a violation of oath of office) for anyone employed in the United States Government (including members of Congress) to "advocate the overthrow of our constitutional form of government". The fourth federal law, 18 U.S.C. 1918 provides penalties for violation of oath office described in 5 U.S.C. 7311 which include: (1) removal from office and; (2) confinement or a fine. I contend that, at least, nine out of every ten legislators, in both the house and the senate, as well as all of the members of both the executive and judicial branches of government, are in guilty of breaking their oaths of office, and, as such, are in violation of the afore mentioned criminal codes. These persons should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. All violators should, as a matter of course, be immediately removed from office as is provided for in the code. I suggest that the idea of a public stoning should not be taken off the table, not only as a partial remedy, but also as an apt deterrent. The question here is "why do the American people allow their representatives to break their oath of office (a federal crime) and not hold them accountable? Why have we, as citizens of the United States, allowed ourselves to forsaken, and denied protection of our property, and Constitutional defense against those who would usurp our rights, and eat out our sustenance? The answer is: because the vast majority of the people of the United States have been feloniously relieved of their capacity to exercise critical thought, the result of which has rendered them ineffectual, impotent and irrelevant. We can no longer expect, or hope for, the majority of Americans to do much more than "roll over". It has become, truly, a very sad state of affairs.
You must first realize that there are, present in our lives, enemies. You must then know who those enemies are and act accordingly. Eliminate as much debt as possible, especially variable rate debt, such as credit cards and lines of credit. Interest rates will be rising, so the elimination of debt offers a real return of escaping rising rates by creditors. Get some control over some fresh water. If you are depending on Social Security, stop. Follow the course opposite to custom and you will almost always do well... Its not what you don't know that will screw you up, it's what you think you know that is wrong. The spin you hear from the mainstream media is intended to mislead you. Open your eyes and face the future. If you leave your head in the sand and ignore it, you are only leaving your butt exposed for the world to kick. This all may sound like gloom and doom, but when you get a handle on what is going to happen, you will have a future filled with opportunity. Fortune favors the Informed. More next week... May the Great Spirit be with you always, Johnny
Silver Bear Disclaimer All statements and expressions are the sole opinions of the editor and are subject to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a company in the newsletter is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein. The staff of Silver Bear Cafe are not registered investment advisors and do not purport to offer personalized investment related advice. The publisher, editor, staff, or anyone associated with, or associated to the Silver Bear Cafe may own securities mentioned in this newsletter and may buy or sell securities without notice. |
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10.12.13- Never insult anyone by accident.
10.05.13- If everything is under control, you are going too slow.
09.14.13- If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.
09.07.13- Behind every great man is a woman rolling her eyes.
08.31.13- Don't tell mom I'm a banker, she thinks I play piano in a whorehouse
08.24.13- Puritanism: the haunting fear that somewhere, someone is having a good time.
08.17.13- I have enough money to last me the rest of my life, unless I buy something.
08.10.13- I don't believe in astrology. I am a Sagittarius and we're very sceptical.
08.03.13- First things first - but not necessarily in that order.
07.27.13- If God is watching us, the least we can do is be entertaining.
07.20.13- Debt is normal. Be weird.
07.13.13- My problem lies in reconciling my gross habits with my net income.
07.06.13- I can't believe that cop put me in the backseat after I clearly called shotgun.
06.29.13- People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.
06.15.13- How Can I Miss You if You Won't Go Away?
06.08.13- If the Good Lord's Willing and the Creek Don't Rise...
06.01.13- Just cause you got the monkey off your back doesn't mean the circus has left town.
05.25.13- Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there.
05.18.13- House Guarded By Shotgun 3 Days A Week. Guess Which Days.
05.11.13- Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.
04.27.13- A dyslexic man walks into a bra...
04.20.13- "The economy is so bad the Mafia is laying off judges."
04.13.13- "There are no dangerous weapons; there are only dangerous men."
04.06.13- A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul's Support.
03.30.13- A word to the wise isn't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice.
03.09.13- Yield to temptation. It may not pass your way again.
03.02.13- Life is not about how fast you run, or how high you climb, but how well you bounce.
02.23.13- Don't be afraid to take a big step;you can't cross a chasm in two hops.
02.16.13- The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits
02.09.13- We May Be Lost, but we're making good time
02.02.13- If we don't change course, we may end up where we are heading
01.26.13- Opportunities always look bigger going than coming
01.19.13- There's too much youth; how about a fountain of smart
01.12.13- Sixty-five-year-old, one owner, needs parts ...Make offer.
01.05.13- Lead me not into temptation, I can find it by myself
12.29.12- Never Underestimate the Power of Stupid People in Large Groups