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Something Wicked is STILL Nearby — Papa Powell on the Prowl for a Brawl
David Haggith

In my latest Patron Post, I lay out how, even though I appear to have missed my “anticipated” (not predicted) target for the next big leg down in stocks to happen as an October surprise, I have many, many reasons to believe the bear’s revenge against the recent rally is still on track, even if a little slow, and right around the corner.

In fact, the bear may have even broken through the underbrush on the final day of October. Halloween, while not scary in terms of the market’s drop, may have bit off the recent rally at the neck just in the nick of time to start the terrible move that I anticipated would begin in October. The market may be ready to growl in our faces today when Papa Powell returns to face off with it in the Fed’s next move.

After two days down in a row, much will depend on what Papa Bear Powell does on the prowl today. If he duels with the market, the market has shown some fear and will lose. It’s up to him and his gang, however, how roughly they want to engage the market in perilous times. As I lay out in detail in my Patron Post, events over the last few days and even during that rally have likely shot Powell in the butt with rock salt, making him all the more determined to fight inflation, even if it means brawling with the stock market and bond market and the whole economy in perilous times.

Regardless — as in even if the Fed takes a less bearish turn against investors today to knock down their foolish exuberance — there are so many other factors pushing against this market that I believe the recent rally has little room left to run from the lurking bear, and I lay out how little its remaining headroom is, even if Powell decides to back off from a serious fight with investors.

All the details that support my all-out prediction for the market during what is left of this season are reserved for those who also support me — those who offer their patronage at $5 a month or more in order to keep me working on all the articles on this site. That’s what you’re supporting, not the writing of a monthly newsletter. That’s just a bonus.

As I am still intently evaluating whether to continue this work beyond the end of this year, I hope you will consider support of this site on Patreon. Otherwise, it will soon be time for me to look for a regular position again for sustainable income and put my writing on the back burner or away altogether as I’m burning through my savings at a rate about $2,000 a month to support this effort. I chose to give my time of government-forced unemployment due to refusing the vaccine the chance to make this my new career, but a lot has to happen to make that realistic, as I’m still three years out from any form of retirement pension. I have not, however, given up hope.

For many years I worked as general manager of five-star resort properties in Hawaii and then a resort ranch on the mainland. In recent years, I chose partial retirement from property management specifically to work on this blog and to disseminate my articles elsewhere as well and to take part in podcast interviews to talk about about the damage the Fed was doing to all of us. Partial retirement was a school-bus driving job because that gave me four hours off in the middle of the day to work on this blog while providing $2,500 a month plus benefits to keep me from having to dip into my savings before my retirement pension kicks in.

Then the government I worked for forced my termination from the school district over the vaccine, and I have split my time since then on writing for other sites and this blog. In recent months I have focused just on this blog and The Daily Doom to see if I could make either of those (or both) work as my supplemental retirement in days ahead. I’ll let you know in December how all of that worked out and will keep writing, in the very least, through the end of the year to make sure Patrons get all they paid to support for December.



Seeing the Great Recession Before it Hit

My path to writing this blog began as a personal journey. Prior to the start of this so-called “Great Recession,” my ex-wife had a family home that was an inheritance from her mother. I worked as a property manger at the time, and near the end of 2007, I could tell from rumblings in the industry that the U.S. housing market was on the verge of catastrophic collapse. I urged her to press her brothers to sell the family home before prices dropped. The house went on the market and sold right away — and just three months before Bear-Stearns and others crashed, taking the U.S. housing market down for the tumble. Her family sold at the peak of the market.

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