The Silver Bear Cafe

Israeli Flashpoint - Localized Skirmish?
Or the Beginning of Major Global Black Swan?
Simplicius the Thinker

The irruption in Israel caught many of us off guard. But to some extents it was a long-expected flashpoint escalation meant to begin the denouement of the Ukrainian conflict, by taking heat off from it.

There are many circulating accounts of all the things that seem “off” about Hamas’ attack, so I won’t recount every single point here as most of you have likely read them in multiple places; things like the very implausible breach of Israel’s high tech gates and defenses, to the unprecedented failures of Mossad and Shin Bet, to Netanyahu’s eerily scripted invocation of ‘Pearl Harbor’, which is very telling considering that Pearl Harbor was also a falseflag attack with the purpose of bringing the U.S. into WW2.

Recall that Hamas was partly or entirely created by Israel—a fact confessed to by several high ranking Israeli officials—as a counterweight to the PLO, the dominant political group at the time. So it’s not out of the question that a group created by Israel and Western intelligence outfits can potentially still be under their control or at least infiltrated to the extent of being ‘steered’ into creating certain needed falseflags which could benefit Israel as a whole. This is supported by new evidence reportedly coming out that Hamas was using Ukrainian-supplied weaponry, which would indicate a fairly standard Western intel weapons pipeline a la the Contras, et al.

The primary principle that I operate under is that almost no global event happens by pure happenstance, particularly when it’s in a given related geopolitical sphere. And the Middle East is certainly tied, in many ways, to Russia, the Ukrainian war, and multipolarity in general.

Let’s go through some of the potential reasons that could be responsible for igniting such a conflict now of all times.

As a corollary to the general principle that nothing happens by happenstance in the world of great power politics, we must recall that everything that does happen is generally related to, or happens as a byproduct of—whether direct or indirect—the leading great power or superpower in charge; very little can happen under their purview without their go-ahead of some kind.

In this case we’re referring to the U.S., the chief Hegemon of the world. However, the U.S. isn’t the only big kid on the block anymore, and so we’re going to look at the possible reasons that both sides might have for sparking this flare up.

We know that recently major strides toward multipolarity and the fracture of the Atlanticist world empire were being made. As a parallel to this, Israel was moving toward a serious normalization with Saudi Arabia, which is now being described by insiders as being “put on indefinite hold” because KSA required various concessions toward Palestinians from Israel—which is now a dead issue.

In many ways, such reconciliations, rapprochements, normalizations, etc., are dangerous developments for the Hegemon. War and conflict are the most effective tools in controlling events and creating favorable conditions for domination, allowing the creation of division, the weakening of intransigent countries, ousting of their leaders, etc.

First we must remember that Benjamin Netanyahu himself was facing increased unpopularity at home, with rumors long suggesting that even the Mossad was helping to stage protests against him (revealed in the Pentagon leaks early this year).

One of the most commonly utilized methods for a ‘strong man’ leader to assert his strength, win back support, and consolidate power is to foment some type of conflict which can be used to create “emergency” restrictions on opponents, suppression of political speech, etc. This is obviously a widely used tactic—most recently by Zelensky—and doesn’t need much explanation.

One can easily imagine how an embattled Netanyahu would seek to stir up a conflict to redirect patriotism and wreathe himself in “glory” by destroying Hamas once and for all, which would secure his power and legacy for all time.

Extrapolating this out, there could have been a convergence of mutually beneficial incentives. Knowing Netanyahu’s situation, the U.S./UK may have decided to work out a mutual deal by which multiple birds are killed with one stone. Netanyahu gets his power consolidation and glory, while U.S./UK get to potentially wage a war to weaken the now unstoppably ascendant Iran.

That brings us to the next big motivation. One of the chief reasons for this sudden flare up may be to instigate a much larger conflagration in order to fatally weaken Iran, which has been gaining inordinate geopolitical power lately. This isn’t mere speculation, but is now being openly hinted at in a variety of ways by the West.

If you’ll recall, the West has been chafing to clip Iran’s wings for the past year like never before. That’s because Iran has been getting increasingly dominant in the region, particularly following all the recent rapprochements, and as a result of how instrumental it’s been in the various energy wars and geopolitically—helping Russia in Ukraine, etc. Iran’s stock has risen enormously, and it was becoming far too large a threat.

Furthermore, recall the Syria theater has slowly begun activating lately as well, partly owing to the Ukrainian war, as a U.S. vector to weaken and divide Russian efforts. But also because Iran has been making headway there as well, with Israeli strikes being less effective and less frequent, while U.S. troops and bases have been under increased attack from Iranian proxies.

Assad, meanwhile, has likewise been growing in strength, jet-setting around the globe, making new deals. He met the Saudi minister for the first time since 2011, visited China for the first time since 2004, and other such feats.

Viewed from this holistic lens, we can infer that the U.S. hegemon may want to embroil the Middle East in a large conflict in order to weaken their increasingly strengthening adversaries. Officially they claim to be peacemakers who are ‘blindsided’ by developments and seek to curtail any escalations:

But in fact the U.S. just announced the dispatching of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier battlegroup to the eastern Mediterranean region. You don’t send that much firepower if you mean to make peace and de-escalate. Not to mention U.S. military C17 cargo planes have already been landing in Israel, likely transporting new arms.

It’s very easy to see how they might, for instance, link Iran’s involvement in the Hamas attacks to a perceived ‘growing Iranian threat’ in Syria, and include that in a wider future offensive where joint Israeli-American squadrons can bomb and weaken Assad’s forces, infrastructure, etc., to keep Syria down. Martyanov covers this at length in his new video, including the military-specific prospects of such a hypothetical attack on Iran.

But of course, as per Lindsey Graham’s above threats, this could be taken much further. They may have an entire war to cripple Iran planned, at least its oil refineries, which would cripple Iran’s economy and gut its influence. Pepe Escobar discusses such potentialities in his new post:

The projects he mentions, the complete collapse of the Western dominated system, is a key hinge point. Refamiliarize yourself with my article on the Heartland, and why this ‘middle passage’ through Iran is absolutely critical for the Hegemon to win the world.

Now that the West is on the brink, they may be going ‘all out’ to try and neuter Iran once and for all, which would have a domino effect on the entire region. Iran cut down would mean Syria’s fall, which would mean Russia booted out and its bases closed up, which would mean any Russian power projection to that region nullified, particularly now that the northern routes will be completely NATO dominated, with Finland and potentially Sweden joining.

Ultimately that would serve a much larger purpose—there are always designs within designs.

The ultimate grand scheme revolves around the Ukraine war, which itself revolves around the future China-Taiwan conflict.

There could be a variety of reasons to spark this conflict now, vis a vis Ukraine. One of the foremost things that comes to mind is to create a massive smokescreen to divert coverage of the Ukrainian conflict while the Biden administration quietly enacts its plan—which we discussed at length in the last report—to put Zelensky on ice and freeze the war.

Several recent articles denoted just how little media coverage Ukraine has been getting recently, charts showing the slow decline, particularly ever since the realities of the failed offensive set in. Now it’s bound to disappear entirely from the news cycle, replaced with the growing Israeli conflict and endless shrieks of outrage of committed atrocities—you know the same ones carried out daily by the AFU on Donbass, which somehow fail to garner the same media attention.

Someone had recently asked me—I forget if it was in the comments section or in one of the mailbags—how do I envision that they’ll be able to sweep the Ukrainian conflict under the rug in the future. I gave several potential methods, one of which was they can spark some other new global flashpoint to divert attention. I even gave some examples, like pushing the Azerbaijan-Armenia situation into something bigger, working up the Serbia-Kosovo hostilities, which have been simmering for some time now; but this is one I admittedly did not foresee.

In many ways, it’s the most brilliant one of all. Because nothing buys media outrage like attacks on Israel, or so it seems. The media doesn’t care about murdered Armenians, or any other country for that matter. So if your chief objective is to create the biggest media smokescreen to completely distract away Ukraine coverage, then this is the one.

But I know what you’re thinking. Israel may do a ‘quick’ clean up job on Hamas and be done with it, returning all the attention back on Ukraine.

That’s why for this theory to work, it would likely have to spark a wider conflict, perhaps involving Iran. Then the U.S. could even have an excuse to dump Ukraine, one that would actually pass muster with the most rabid pro-Ukrainian members of Congress. For instance: “We had to send all our money to help save Israel.” Certainly no one in U.S.-Israeli-owned Congress would pearl-clutch or hand-wring about U.S. blowing its Ukrainian ear-marked cash on Israel instead.

It could give the Biden administration a valid, defensible excuse to dump Ukraine. Keep in mind, I’m not yet fully supporting this theory as the main motivation for the current conflict, but am offering it up as a potential one. I myself am not yet totally decided, as I’m still gathering data and waiting for more events to transpire to furnish us with clues.

We’re already witness to the media conditioning us for the reality that U.S. will have to use its preciously drained munitions stockpiles for Israel, prioritizing their first beloved over their second newly-christened one. You can easily imagine the consequent excuse in the future: “We had more pressing needs, so we couldn’t fund/supply Ukraine anymore!”

Absolution will be given because everyone in the U.S. establishment understands the inviolable sacredness of Israel. How can anyone ever be blamed for prioritizing Israel over Ukraine? That’s simply unthinkable in the U.S.

Remember we had just discussed in my very last article the potential for U.S. dumping Ukraine, leaving them with no further funding, in light of the recent House shake-up?

This new announcement that Biden is set to make an attempt at one unprecedentedly hefty $100B gift to Ukraine is very interesting because it reeks of a final payoff, or send off. Almost like trying to ‘wash your hands’ of the conflict with one last conscience-clearing tranche. Most commentators agree though that this would merely be a performative stunt and would have no chance of passing, but perhaps it’s Biden’s way of washing his hands in order to create the perception that he “did all he could,” so that later on he can have that as part of his defense when Ukraine inevitably falls and he’s faced with career-ending criticism. He can say: “See, I tried my best to save them, I pledged $100B but those spoiling Republicans blocked me.”

So, could this be the beginning of something big meant to wipe the slate clean of Ukraine and perhaps even lead to another world-altering “event” that would allow the establishment to cancel/steal the 2024 elections?

Recall that the big Covid falseflag also began around the November period of the year right before the election cycle, i.e. late 2019.

Lastly, there are some chilling rumors that seem to suggest the neocons could go all inand execute a 9/11 style series of falseflags on U.S. soil to bring America entirely into war with Iran:

This is not implausible; the neocons may have done their own calculations and gamed it out to conclude that if they don’t take Iran out now, the U.S. is doomed. This could be the beginning of a giant conflagration that would satisfy some of the worst prophecies for 2024. I.e. there being no elections and a new global Black Swan event akin to the last election cycle’s Covid.

What if, instead, this entire event is an orchestration of Iran or the Russian-led bloc?

There are certainly a plethora of reasons for why that may be the case, not least of which is the fact that Iran recognizes that the U.S. (and the West) is now at its critically weakest because it has divested itself of all its arms to Ukraine:

We’ve already seen in recent times the urgent concern from congressional members that U.S. does not have enough arms for Taiwan, and must in the future choose between Ukraine and countering China. Now, Iran could have chosen to open up a new major front at a critical point when the U.S. is torn between its various geopolitical exigencies.

Another aspect possibly pointing to this is the seeming over-confidence displayed by Hamas. Most commentators can’t reconcile why Hamas appears to operate so presumptuously when—on paper—the IDF vastly overpowers them. I refer to, for instance, the fact that Hamas was said to reject any ceasefires because they intend to “go all the way”.

As we speak, latest reports claim upwards of 100,000 Israeli troops are heading to Gaza:

It seems inconceivable that Hamas would start such an operation without a contingency, particularly if Iran helped plan it. We know that Hezbollah has already stated it would intervene if the IDF enters Gaza.

Recall that only days ago, the U.S. shot down a very expensive and high-end Turkish drone over Syria, when said drone was reportedly coming close to bombing U.S. forces. Such developments speak of larger simmering tensions in the region.

Many now believe that Israel is set to fall into a “trap” set by Iran—whereby they enter Gaza and will have Hezbollah open up a second front. Hamas has already reportedly depleted much of Israel’s Iron Dome with their own cheap ‘bottle rockets’, and has thus paved the way for Hezbollah to demolish Israel with real Iranian-supplied firepower in the form of heavy SRBMs and drones, etc.

The plan could then be secretly aided by the entire Russian bloc due to the knowledge that such a widescale conflict could greatly benefit Russia and even China in a variety of ways.

The first and most obvious is it would take all U.S. attention away from Ukraine, forcing them to focus on combating Iran and its regional powers, which would allow Russia to swiftly finish off an abandoned Ukraine.

Secondly, and in aid to the first above, any conflict of this sort would send oil prices through the roof, which are already being estimated to go to $150 per barrel in the future. This would lead to Russia’s already-exorbitant fossil fuel profits to shoot through the roof, not only stabilizing its own economy but helping to finance the Ukraine war.

China of course could benefit in a similar way in having the U.S.’s attention diverted elsewhere, giving China breathing room to continue building up and consolidating its own regional strength while also depleting the U.S. and thus preventing it from ever funding/supplying Taiwan to substantial degrees.

The above may read a touch maudlin and overly optimistic—I’m not necessarily endorsing it, at least not yet. It could very well be true.

One of the other reasons is that there have been far too many ‘coincidental’ uprisings against the Western order lately. Recall how many times we’ve discussed here Russia’s potential asymmetric role in the various African liberations currently flaming through the continent. You think it was an accident that led to things like this?

I was asked many times, during mailbags, comments, etc., on what if anything Russia planned to do to offset U.S.’s own constant hybrid warfare vis a vis the Ukrainian conflict. There are certainly a lot of “mysterious events” happening all over the world, which could answer that.

That’s why I won’t be surprised if the current confrontation is connected to the hybrid global war of East vs. West, or Global South vs. the Atlanticists.

Recall that great ancient civilizations think and plan in long term strategies. Could this in fact be a coordinated and carefully timed three-pronged attack—the first leg of which would be Russia taking out Ukraine, then Iran taking out Israel, finishing off with the coup de grace of China taking out Taiwan?

It’s certainly a very ambitious notion. But it matches what some other people have predicted for a while, like Zhirinovsky here from several years ago:

Another potential reason for why the banking cartel that runs the West needs a major war to flush the system:

Even by the standards of the last decade, which was just unprecedented in how much money the Federal Reserve printed, the past week saw another mind-bending printing run.

Particularly with all the de-dollarization going on, it can only mean that the Western financial system has never been in a more precarious state. The cartel needs some major global conflict so they can flush the system out, clear their books, and start the usury-fiat scam all over again from a clean slate.

But we’ll have to see how this conflict unfolds over the next week or two in order to truly judge if it’s some 5D Iranian master plan, or just a cheap ploy for Netanyahu to consolidate power and ink his legacy as the historic Israeli leader who crushed Hamas once and for all, clearing all his rotten misdeeds and corruption in one fell swoop.

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