Fed Fumbles Basic Arithmetic, Putting Your Savings in Danger
Bill Bonner

The Federal Reserve’s trillion-dollar decisions are based on fundamentally flawed data, and there’s no do-overs. From jobs reports to GDP, revisions are piling up – here’s how that puts both our savings and our retirement plans at risk…

"We KNOW the numbers are wrong, might as well roll the dice..."

One of the hardest jobs in the world has to be “managing” an economy.

Imagine the pressure: decisions about interest rates, jobs and credit costs affect whether some families will pay higher rents when their leases expire. Or whether the local ice cream shop can take out a line of credit to keep its doors open.

Now imagine making those massive decisions with bad information.

That’s the reality facing the Federal Reserve. Sure, the Fed Open Markets Committee assume they’re working with accurate data – they have to, right? Because the data they do have should be the best and most accurate they can get. The stakes are simply too high to make decisions on incomplete or inaccurate data. 

But, it turns out, that’s exactly what they’re doing… 

Where the Fed gets its numbers

Much of the data that shapes Fed policy comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Their reports on payrolls, unemployment, wages, inflation, and GDP flow directly into interest-rate decisions.

Strong jobs growth? The Fed tends to raise rates. Weak numbers? They lean toward cuts. Either way, the stakes are enormous.

But here’s the problem: The numbers keep changing after the fact.

In September, the BLS issued its largest-ever revision to payrolls – retroactively cutting job growth by 911,000 positions for the 12 months ending in March 2025.

Think about that. Nearly a million “phantom jobs” were in the system for a full year – shaping policy, moving markets, and influencing borrowing costs for households and businesses.

Why the revisions keep happening

The BLS relies heavily on surveys, many of them with small businesses. That approach made sense decades ago, but critics argue it’s outdated in an economy driven by digital payroll systems and rapid labor shifts.

Even Sean Higgins at the Competitive Enterprise Institute has pointed out that the BLS’s methods struggle to keep up with modern employment patterns.

And it’s not just the labor numbers. The BLS also publishes CPI and PPI – the most widely followed measures of inflation. Meanwhile, GDP data (compiled by the BEA) undergoes multiple revisions before it settles.

In other words, the Fed isn’t steering by GPS. It’s more like they’re using a paper map with a bunch of road closures and construction zones scribbled in the margins.

Why this matters to everyday Americans like you

Faulty data doesn’t just mislead policymakers in Washington. It ripples out into everyday life. Interest rates based on flawed assumptions can raise mortgage costs, shrink retirement account values, and squeeze household budgets.

As former Fed chair Alan Greenspan famously admitted: 

“We really can’t forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can’t.”

Which is why it makes sense to pay attention to what you’re experiencing in the real world, in your family’s costs and budget – that’s a lot less relevant than abstract government numbers.

Take control of your own financial future

You can’t control the Fed, or whether its data is revised a year from now. What you can control is how exposed your own savings are to those policy missteps.

That’s where diversification comes in. By sheltering a portion of your retirement savings in physical precious metals, you give yourself a buffer – an asset that doesn’t depend on BLS surveys or Fed “dot plots.”

In my experience, physical gold and silver have served as that buffer for generations. And thanks to today’s IRS guidelines, you can own them in a tax-advantaged Gold IRA.

If you’d like to learn more, request our free 2025 Precious Metals Information Kit. Because in an economy controlled by bureaucrats making decisions based on uncertain statistics, one thing you can trust is the value of tangible wealth you can hold in your hands.

Peter Reagan is a seasoned financial market strategist at Birch Gold Group with over 15 years of experience in the precious metals industry. He has been featured in several leading publications, including Newsmax and Zerohedge. At Birch Gold Group, Peter leverages his deep market insights to help educate customers on how they can diversify their savings into gold and other precious metals. His commitment to education has made him a trusted thought leader in the field. In addition to the Birch Gold website, you can follow Peter on LinkedIn.

www.birchgold.com