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September
16
2023

Rickards Raises Hurricane Flag
Brian Maher

Moans reader Michael R.:

“What’s the point of reading these lengthy remarks about the demise of our economy? All I’m seeking is specific stock tips.”

A fish prowls the depths in pursuit of lunch. It seeks its own “stock tips” to guide the hunt.

It lacks all curiosity of the greater ocean through which it slithers.

Yet we hazard our readers are not simply fish hunting lunch. We hazard they harbor a greater appetite.

An appetite — that is — for a greater understanding of the oceanic realm they inhabit.

They seek to understand the deeper currents that push them here and pull them there.

They seek to understand the formation of tempests that frenzy them.

They seek to understand “the big picture.”

To which compass point are interest rates drifting? Is the economy sailing into biting recessionary gales?

Are financial typhoons taking form?

We seek answers to these questions — and we believe you do too.

Neptune Is a Capricious and Inscrutable God

Thus we take our barometric readings. Thus we float our weather balloons. Thus we consult our weather stations.

What comes of it all? We often botch the forecast.

We are an oceanographer who is — if you’ll forgive the expression — “at sea.”

Yet Neptune is a capricious and inscrutable god. His will is not easily divined.

Should we abandon the quest altogether?

We do not believe we should.

We may place you on hurricane watch. By our own admission, the storm may never blow ashore.

Yet what if it does? What if it battens you… rubbles your house… even murders you?

Is it not better to prepare — just in case — even if the tempest tacks to sea?

Is not the preventive ounce worth its curative pound?

The ounce is light. The pound is heavy.

Jim Rickards Issues a Hurricane Watch

Just last evening Jim Rickards issued his own hurricane watch.

Jim telegraphed a warning that the barometric pressure is plunging… the sea is churning… and that within weeks perhaps… another Lehman-like hurricane may barrel ashore:

We are just days from another “Lehman moment.”

The same thing happened 15 years ago to the date – when the historic collapse of Lehman Bros. triggered a wave of bank runs all over the country.

I had warned a senior member of Congress that something like this might happen just three weeks before it did.

This senior member of Congress failed to heed Jim’s advisory. Few, in fact, did.

Yet three weeks later the storm blew in and blew Lehman down.

Thus commenced the “Great Financial Crisis.”

And now?

While Joe Biden has tried to assure us the banking system is “safe and sound,” all my indicators are pointing to a massive aftershock unlike anything we’ve seen since 2008.

The three largest credit ratings firms in the U.S. are sounding the alarm as well.

Moody’s just downgraded 10 large regional banks and has threatened to cut another six banking giants – including Bank of New York Mellon, U.S. Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial.

Fitch, another agency, recently cut America’s credit rating for the first time since 2011…

And is now warning DOZENS of banks may soon suffer the same fate…

And Standard & Poor’s has now followed their lead – downgrading five more banks that are doomed to fail.

When precisely does Jim expect landfall?

This crisis isn’t coming next month, next week or tomorrow…

It’s already here.

And it’s about to get a lot worse. In fact, The fuse has already been lit on a massive, $3 trillion time bomb that could blow up at any moment.

And while our federal overlords have tried to assure us the crisis is contained, dozens, if not HUNDREDS, of banks are about to get wiped out.

You may only have days left to prepare.

The Ounce of Prevention and the Pound of Cure

Will Jim’s grim forecast prove accurate? Or is he raising a false storm flag?

Or is landfall perhaps months distant — not days or weeks distant — as Jim projects?

We do not know. Each outcome is possible.

Yet we return to the advantages of preparation, to the ounce of prevention and its pound of cure.

You plywood your windows. You stow emergency provisions. You purchase a power generator.

And if the hurricane skirts you altogether? If the winds and rains never besiege you?

Your ounce of prevention has cost you comparatively little — some plywood, some foodstuffs, a generator.

The Prepared vs. the Unprepared

Yet what if the tempest actually comes in and waylays you?

Your ounce of prevention works its pound of cure. You are equipped.

Your windows can withstand the gales, you have abundant rations on hand, your lights are on.

You are the envy of your neighbors — your neighbors who failed to prepare.

They are wrecked, famished and powerless — literally and figuratively.

You are not.

What would they give for a second chance, a chance to step back in time… and purchase their ounce of prevention?

Very much we hazard.

Yet it is too late. The precious ounce is unavailable at any price.

Yet against the banking hurricane Jim forecasts… it is available… at an attractive price.

Will they prove necessary? Again, we do not know.

We do not know if landfall is next week, next month or never.

Yet they constitute prevention. And they may prove priceless.

“Sometimes Right, Sometimes Wrong… and Always in Doubt”

We can only issue our forecasts, secure in the knowledge we may make heavy weather of them.

Explains our co-founder, Mr. Bill Bonner:

We’re often wrong… which leaves us exposed to ridicule as well as regulatory threats.

“You said that stock would go up…” say the critics.

“You said Congress would never go along…”

“You said the economy would be in recession by now…”

When you’re looking into the future, there are an infinite number of things you can be wrong about. Since we’ve been writing for so long, we’ve probably already been wrong about most of them.

And we’ll get the rest of them wrong in due course.

But our Dear Readers know we are mortal, just like they are. They don’t expect us to be right all the time. They only expect us to be honest… about what we see and hear and think and know… and to work hard to try to discover tomorrow’s truth before it is mainstream news.

We are out to connect the dots so we can see when to buy stocks… what the Fed will do… what will happen to our economy… or where the country is going…

We mock the conceits of the great and the good. We laugh at absurd trends and foolish fads… and at ourselves…

And we squint so hard our eyes hurt, desperately trying to catch a tiny glimpse of real truth.

And we never forget our humble motto: Sometimes right, sometimes wrong… and always in doubt.

And so here we sit: Sometimes right. Sometimes wrong…

Always in doubt.

 

 

Brian Maher is the Daily Reckoning’s Managing Editor. Before signing on to Agora Financial, he was an independent researcher and writer who covered economics, politics and international affairs. His work has appeared in the Asia Times and other news outlets around the world. He holds a Master’s degree in Defense & Strategic Studies.

 

 

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