Why Economic Collapse is Inevitable
Note: This is the first half of a talk I presented at the recent Rebel Capitalist conference in Miami (June 24/25, 2022). The conference was amazing and this talk was very well received by the audience. I highly encourage anybody interested in economics, investing and/or finance to attend future Rebel Capitalist events! The second half is reserved for paying members.
If you understand energy and its foundational role in making the economy happen, then you understand something that few others do. I’m not sure why this energy blindness exists, but it is as mysterious as it is widespread. Perhaps, the implications are just too profound for many people to really entertain?
After all, if energy is that important, and it’s now winding down, what does that mean for the long march of human progress and our own sense of what the future might hold? At a minimum, it means that things simply won’t carry on as they have been. No more endless growth. No more increasingly complex systems; heck we’ll be lucky to simply keep what we’ve got now operating and properly maintained.
It all comes down to the amount of oil that’s available because oil is the KING of all energy sources. And the king is weak and fading…it’s entirely possible that we’ll never again see as much oil come out of the ground as we did back in 2018. That might have been the actual peak…
There are warning signs everywhere that oil supplies are extremely tight and that spare capacity simply doesn’t exist at the moment. Someday oil will forever be in the rearview mirror and this is why an economic collapse is inevitable.
Please, take the time to learn this data and ponder not just what it means to the world, but to yourselves and your loved ones.
In the second part of this video for subscribers, I unpack both the complexity of the oil business and its relationship to our economy, but also something called “the credit impulse” which is also flashing a strong recession (depression?) warning signal.
One does not simply take a massively complex system like oil refining and jerk it about with sanctions and supply cuts without creating massive whiplash effects. But this is what Europe has done with Russian oil and gas and the knock-on effects are going to be exceptionally painful and long-lasting. For their part Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signaled to the world something we’ve long suspected; they haven’t actually got the spare capacity they always claimed they did. This is becoming more and more clear with every passing week when they fail to achieve their OPEC production targets.
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