Kazakhstan, China Forge Uranium Partnership as U.S. Falls Behind
Alex Kimani

Kazakhstan and China have moved to deepen their strategic partnership, with the two allies set to sign 60 agreements worth up to $25 billion at the China–Central Asia Industrial and Investment Cooperation Forum in Astana. Kazakhstan has identified China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) as a key strategic partner for building nuclear power plants, and will sign a cooperation agreement with China on nuclear energy.

This partnership also includes joint research on transboundary uranium ore belts straddling the two countries. According to Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, bilateral and trade relations between the two countries have reached a new golden period, with Beijing a time-tested and reliable partner of Kazakhstan. China is Kazakhstan’s largest trade partner, with bilateral trade volume reaching a record $44 billion in 2024.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) also took center stage at the forum, specifically highlighting infrastructure development. That included plans to modernize logistics corridors, build new border facilities and simplify customs procedures, reinforcing Kazakhstan’s role as Central Asia’s leading transit hub.

“We consider the Chinese company CNNC [China National Nuclear Corporation] as a reliable strategic partner in the NPP construction project. CNNC is known worldwide for its high competence, so it will certainly occupy a worthy niche in our market. In addition, Kazakhstan is a reliable supplier of natural uranium and nuclear fuel to China,” Tokayev said.

Kazakhstan is the United States’ second largest supplier of uranium after Canada, supplying 25% of the country’s imports in 2022--more than twice the volume it ordered from Russia. Kazakhstan is home to 12% of the world’s natural uranium reserves and 43% of the global uranium supply. However, Kazakhstan has no nuclear energy production capacity, with its energy mix dominated by coal at 68%, followed by natural gas and hydro.

For its part, Beijing’s move to secure uranium supplies appears strategic. Five years ago, the country set a target to build 150 nuclear plants by 2035, potentially surpassing the United States in nuclear-generated electricity. Last year, a report by the non-partisan Information Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF) revealed that the U.S. could be up to 15 years behind China in next-generation nuclear power development.

Currently, China has 27 nuclear reactors under development, more than double the tally for any other country, with the country’s fleet now standing at 56 reactors. China is building reactors at a 6-8 per year clip, putting it on track to hit a total of 150 new nuclear reactors by 2035 and surpass the U.S. in nuclear-generated electricity by 2030. In contrast, the U.S. has only launched two new nuclear reactors over the past decade.

According to ITIF researchers, Beijing will likely use this large domestic capacity as a launch pad for competitive reactor exports, similar to its strategy with electric vehicles and batteries. Two years ago, a report emerged that Saudi Arabia was considering a bid from China to build a nuclear power plant, potentially sidelining the United States. This move came as Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its energy mix and potentially develop a domestic nuclear industry. The U.S. had previously expressed interest in partnering with Saudi Arabia on a civilian nuclear program, but also imposed non-proliferation conditions that resulted in delays.

Beijing is also winning on the innovation front. In December 2023, China unveiled the 200 MW gas-cooled Shidaowan-1 nuclear plant, the world’s first fourth-generation nuclear power plant built with 90% of the technology developed in China. The bulk of China’s current fleet are third-generation reactors initially designed by the U.S. company Westinghouse in the late-1990s. According to ITIF, China’s systemic and organizational approach is largely to credit for the country’s success in nuclear power innovation, noting that it has developed a comprehensive and well-streamlined national strategy for nuclear power. This includes adopting several supportive policies such as feed-in tariffs and low-interest financing, among other subsidies that make the country’s nuclear sector cost-competitive. Additionally, China has streamlined the regulatory approval processes and supply chains.

However, the Trump administration is keen on reviving the U.S. nuclear sector, with Trump signing four executive orders in April in a bid to expedite the deployment of nuclear reactors and ramp up the country’s nuclear energy production from 100 GW in 2024 to 400 GW by 2050.

Unfortunately, the U.S. owns less than 1% of global uranium reserves, meaning that it will be forced to rely on the likes of Kazakhstan for its uranium supplies for years to come. The U.S. produced 700,000 pounds of yellowcake in 2024, good for an impressive 12-fold increase from the previous year, but still a long way off the 32 million pounds it imported in the same year.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com. 

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