Expect the Precious Metals Rally to Continue in 2026
Fiona Harper

2025 was an extraordinary year for precious metals. Gold, silver, and platinum each outperformed other asset classes, including equities, bitcoin (2024's best performer), and even indexes tracking artificial intelligence (AI)—one of 2025's most popular investment themes.Silver and platinum rose by approximately 170 percent in 2025, while gold returned a highly respectable 73 percent.

Among AI stocks, only Palantir outperformed gold.

Why such stellar performance from assets once derided by governments as "barbarous relics" and shunned by investors as outdated?

The reason I wrote at the start of last year that we should "expect gold to shine in 2025" was because global conditions had fundamentally - and perhaps irreversibly - shifted.

I noted then that the primary factors driving gold prices included shifting geopolitics prompting central bank stockpiling, investor concerns over the creditworthiness of the U.S. government (and, by extension, the dollar), persistent inflation eroding the purchasing power of paper currencies, and widening supply-demand imbalances.

These forces are unlikely to abate in 2026.

As a result, we should expect precious metals—including gold, silver, and platinum—to continue performing well in the coming year. Indeed, deglobalization and the continued push toward resource nationalism and the protection of critical materials lend additional support not only to these metals but also to the broader commodities complex.

In recent years, central banks around the world have reduced their purchases of U.S. Treasury securities—formerly their largest reserve asset—and have instead been stockpiling gold. China, Russia, and India have all been significant buyers, as have many smaller, independent nations eager to remain outside the U.S.–China conflict.

Observing how the United States imposed financial sanctions on Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, many countries have concluded that dependence on a dollar-dominated financial system is too risky. They fear that the U.S. government may weaponize the dollar system—via financial sanctions or trade policy—and they're seeking alternatives. Shifting from Treasurys to gold and other metals offers a hedge. A prominent example of efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar is the development of alternative currencies partially backed by gold reserves, such as those being pursued by BRICS nations.

Beyond geopolitics, foreign central banks are concerned about the deteriorating credit condition of the United States, which has been downgraded by all three major ratings agencies. The federal government holds more than $38 trillion in debt—growing by trillions each year—which cannot realistically be repaid except through issuing more debt.

Heavily indebted governments have few options other than allowing inflation to erode the real value of their obligations. The United States cannot default outright, as the dollar is the global reserve currency, and tax increases have political limits. Inflation, then, becomes a hidden tax, steadily undermining the dollar and diminishing household wealth.

A new generation of Americans has now experienced the painful effects of inflation firsthand. Since 2020, the dollar has lost more than 20 percent of its real value—and over 40 percent since 2000. The lesson of inflation, once internalized during the 1970s, had been largely forgotten after decades of relative price stability. But it's once again relevant as people around the world lose confidence in government-issued money—paper IOUs that lose value annually.

Gold and silver, long regarded as hedges against inflation, are resuming their traditional role as stores of value amid geopolitical, monetary, and economic uncertainty.

Retail investors are also part of this trend, purchasing both gold-backed paper assets and physical bullion. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, tons of metal held by U.S.-based, publicly traded gold ETFs increased

 

 

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