New Survey Shows Grim Outlook For Oil Markets
Julianne Geiger

A Reuters poll released Thursday paints a lackluster future for oil in 2025, with a cocktail of sluggish demand growth and supply glut concerns pulling prices down. Analysts now see Brent crude averaging $80.55 per barrel this year and $76.61 in 2025— a steady downgrade from earlier projections.

The pessimistic shift stems from a trio of factors. China’s lukewarm demand, despite its role as the world’s top oil consumer, casts a long shadow. Meanwhile, oil supplies from key producers are poised to swell, especially with OPEC+ eyeing an output hike in December. And the geopolitical storms that once rattled markets, particularly fears of escalations in the Middle East, have calmed. As Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, noted, these flare-ups may stir oil prices, but the risk of real disruption is, well, limited.

U.S. crude also follows suit, with prices expected to hover at $76.73 a barrel this year and down to $72.73 in 2025. This downtrend marks the sixth straight month of reduced expectations for the year’s average prices.

Brent’s current crude price is $73.25, with WTI at $69.55 per barrel—up about 1% on the day, but down based on month-ago levels.

For 2025, the poll hints at a slight bump in global oil demand by roughly 1-1.5 million barrels per day, though it’s not exactly the cavalry. 2024 global demand is expected to be between 0.8 million and 1.2 million bpd, the poll showed.

Seasonal factors may prompt OPEC+ to delay their planned December increase until spring 2025, as Stratas Advisors’ president John Paisie told Reuters, saying “We think that OPEC+ could delay the increase in supply until end of March/beginning of April of 2025, given that demand will drop in Q1 2025 from Q4 2024 because of seasonal factors.”

When the geopolitical winds ease and China’s economy stalls, crude prices might just hit the snooze button for a while.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

 

Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.

 

 

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