A Golden Week for Gold
Craig Hemke

It's that time of year again when Chinese markets close for a week in observance of their "Golden Week" holiday. The typical trading pattern for gold during this holiday week is down early and up late. Will we see things play out this way again in 2024? The week certainly seems to be starting out that way. 

Impact of Golden Week on Gold Prices

First of all, what's Golden Week? In China, it's a celebration of the communist revolution and the country's founding in 1949. All Chinese markets close for this holiday, including the futures exchanges in Shanghai.

Since this happens every year, we're able to track and record the impact on gold and silver prices. Of course, nothing happens in a vacuum and there are always outside influences that drive price changes week after week. In general, however, it has been my experience that the gold price trades lower early in the week and then higher later in the week. Why? Perhaps the absence of Chinese physical demand allows paper/digital trading to have more of an impact on price?

For example, here's a chart from the archives. Note the similarities year-over-year:

Gold Price Trends During Golden Week 2024

Could Golden Week 2024 trade in a similar pattern? Well, certainly we're off to a frustrating start...

However, it's only Monday as I type this and there are certainly a number of headlines pending that could turn things around as the week progresses.

• Tuesday: U.S. manufacturing sector PMIs and JOLTS job openings.
• Wednesday: ADP jobs report.
• Thursday: U.S. service sector PMIs.
• Friday: The latest U.S. jobs report and unemployment rate.

As such, there's plenty of reason to think that a trading low for gold and silver prices could come by mid-week, and by Friday, things might look entirely different with another new weekly high. 

Gold’s Record Highs and Investment Implications

More important than all of this, though, is today's month and quarter end. Retail day traders pay close attention to intraday and daily charts. They have an impact but don't drive the trend. Instead, it's the flow of hedge fund and institutional cash that drives long-term bull markets. As such, the long-term charts are very important for creating and maintaining the investment narrative.

To that end, check the latest monthly chart as September comes to an end. Not only is gold at a new all-time monthly high, it's at a new all-time quarterly high as well. If you manage billions of dollars, this type of chart gets your attention.

And you know what really gets your attention? Check the updated chart of gold's annualized returns this century, priced in every major fiat currency. Regardless of where you live, the price of gold is up over 25% year-to-date in your currency. If you're a money manager and you don't own gold, you are doing your clients a tremendous disservice.

In summary, it's going to be a volatile week, just as Golden Week has often been in the past. However, a strong bull market for gold and silver continues with new all-time highs in gold and the highest price that silver has seen in over twelve years. If you're looking to add physical metal on price weakness and dips, the first week of October is always one during which you should remain alert.

Don’t miss out on this opportunity to invest in gold and silver while the market trends remain strong. With all-time highs and growing demand, now is the perfect time to diversify your portfolio and protect your wealth. Explore our range of gold and silver investment options and start building a more secure financial future today.

Our Ask The Expert interviewer Craig Hemke began his career in financial services in 1990 but retired in 2008 to focus on family and entrepreneurial opportunities.

Since 2010, he has been the editor and publisher of the TF Metals Report found at TFMetalsReport.com, an online community for precious metal investors.

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