Centimeters From Civil War
Jim Rickards

You’re receiving today’s issue early because it’s very important, and I want to make sure you didn’t miss it.

All Americans should be relieved and grateful that Donald Trump survived an attempted assassination at a political rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday.

Elections should be decided at the ballot box, not through violence. Of course, there are many on the political left who celebrated the assassination attempt. Their only regret is that it failed. But most Americans are happy that the attempt failed.

We can only speculate about what might have happened if Trump were killed. It would be a very different America today. We could have seen outrage, riots and threats of reprisal. It’s frightening to contemplate.

Let’s break it all down…

Trump was grazed by a bullet fired by the shooter Thomas Crooks. The shooter was killed seconds after shooting Trump, but not before firing multiple rounds at Trump and the crowd.

Our prayers go out to Corey Comperatore, a rally participant who was shot and killed by Crooks while trying to shield his family from the killer’s bullets. We also pray for Comperatore’s family and others critically wounded by the shooting.

We know some of the pertinent facts, but there’s far more we don’t know. The shooter used an AR-15-style rifle with 5.56 mm rounds and fired from an adjacent rooftop at a distance of about 150 yards.

The AR-15 is a highly accurate rifle, the 5.56 mm is a high-pressure bullet, and 150 yards is a relatively short distance for any experienced shooter. I’ve fired the same weapon with the same ammo at that distance. The rifle is accurate with low recoil. A longer-barrel sniper-type weapon is not needed to hit a target at that relatively short distance.

Trump was grazed in the ear by one bullet, which led to bleeding but miraculously was not worse. Still, the bullet came within a few millimeters of being a fatal headshot. Trump turned his head away from the shooter’s aim a split second before the bullet hit.

If Trump turned his head a split second earlier, the shooter could have adjusted his aim. If he turned his head a split second later, it would have been too late and the bullet would have penetrated his skull.

The resulting overpressure inside his skull would have likely resulted in a mortal wound, similar to the wound that killed JFK, which was put on graphic display in the famous Zapruder film.

Sadly, others were killed and critically wounded as Crooks continued to fire. Finally,a police sniper on a rooftop close to Trump shot Crooks in the head and he died on the scene with his murder weapon at hand.

Trump’s reflexes after being shot were remarkable. He ducked beneath the bulletproof podium for cover as Secret Service officers piled on top of him as human shields. Once the shooting stopped and the area was deemed clear, Trump got back on his feet looking disheveled and slightly dazed but still focused. As he was being escorted off the stage by the Secret Service,

Trump pumped his fist in the air and shouted, “Fight,” to the crowd. This was an amazing display of strength, courage and presence of mind and gave encouragement both to the rally attendees and a global TV audience.

The image of Trump raising his fist and addressing the crowd, with blood splashed across his face, will go down as one of the most iconic images in American political history.

Trump was rushed to a hospital, treated and then released. He was back at his Bedminster, New Jersey, estate Saturday evening and was actually on the golf course by Sunday morning. He’s now on his way to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to attend the Republican National Convention and should have arrived there by the time you read this.

The convention itself will proceed as planned, including the announcement of Trump’s choice for vice president probably late Monday or first thing Tuesday.

That’s what we know. The list of things we don’t know is much longer. Below, I discuss them. Read on.

It’s critical not to jump to conclusions, but it’s not too soon to ask some hard questions. Here’s the list:

Why on Earth was the shooter’s position not occupied by the Secret Service? It’s an obvious vantage point and potential sniper nest. Even an amateur knows that, let alone the Secret Service. This was a security failure of the utmost magnitude that can’t be overstated. It was that bad.

A number of witnesses have said they saw the shooter climbing up the roof with his rifle. They warned the local police and Secret Service with minutes to spare. Nothing was done. Why not?

The police snipers on the roof closest to Trump spotted the shooter in their scopes. They kept him in sight but did not kill him as should have been required under the circumstances. Once the shooter opened fire, the police snipers killed him but not before five or six shots were fired including the one that hit Trump. Why the delay?

Some unverified reports say that the Secret Service refused to permit the police snipers to kill the assassin before the shooting began. That’s possible, but we don’t know at this point.

It’s also possible that the snipers were awaiting word on the shooter’s identity before firing. There were several agencies with law enforcement personnel on site that day, and they may have been trying to contact the different agencies to determine if they had someone manning that position. The snipers didn’t want to kill a police officer.

Meanwhile, some of the Secret Service detail closest to Trump acted heroically and shielded his body with their own while the area was being secured. But not all. In particular, three female Secret Service officers with Trump looked like the Keystone Cops.

One cowered behind the podium for cover instead of putting her body in harm’s way as required. One officer was so short that Trump towered over her, which means she offered no body protection at all. Donald Trump is 6’3”. Officers protecting him should be 6’4” or taller.

It’s not rocket science. The woman protecting him appeared about 5’7”, was chubby and seemed out of shape. She could not holster her pistol and instead waved it around as Trump was being pushed into his car. The three female Secret Service officers ran in circles near Trump’s car instead of forming a solid security perimeter. One appeared more concerned with getting her sunglasses on than protecting the former president.

It was a clownish performance. Was this the result of DEI policies at the Secret Service implemented by Kimberly Cheatle, the new Secret Service head who publicly stated that DEI was one of her priorities?

There will be congressional hearings on this topic beginning Monday. Hopefully, there will be some accountability before copycat assassination attempts begin. But people are rarely held accountable in Washington these days. Just look at the Afghanistan debacle.

What Happens Now?

The impact of the attempted assassination on Trump will be straightforward. His popularity were not previously considered battlegrounds such as New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia and New Mexico are suddenly in play. Biden’s leads in reliably Democrat states such as New York and New Jersey are now down to single digits and could fall lower.

Another political plus for Trump is that the Democrats have had to cancel a despicable advertising campaign they had planned referring to Trump as a “rapist,” “convicted felon” and more. The budget for this ad campaign was $50 million and it was timed to run during the Republican convention this week. Those plans are on hold and may have to be scrapped completely as sympathy for Trump grows.

Democrat politicians in down-ballot races for governor, senator and House member are in full panic mode. We could be looking at an Electoral College landslide for Trump of perhaps 340–195, which would be one of the largest Electoral College wins in U.S. history.

The Republicans could top that off by winning the Senate 55–45 or better and expanding their majority in the House to 230 Republicans–205 Democrats. Numerous governorships and state legislatures could fall the Republicans’ way as well.

The Biden Collapse

This brings us to the most widely discussed political topic prior to the assassination attempt — Biden’s collapse into senility, his physical infirmity, and the conflicting Democrat attempts to cover up the reality of Biden’s health and to push him aside in favor of Kamala Harris.

Let’s be blunt about Biden’s mental and physical health. Biden is in the late stages of cognitive decline. He refuses to take any cognitive tests (or, if he has, to release the results) and to receive a proper diagnosis.

Biden’s personal physician is an old crony who has been in on Biden family rackets, so he’s hardly an objective source. Jill Biden is more of an acting president than a caring spouse and she’s lousy at both jobs.

A number of competent physicians have said that, in their view, Biden has advanced Parkinson’s disease as evidenced by immobility in his right arm and shaking in his left hand in addition to the mental lapses.

Biden’s recent public appearances are either totally scripted right down to flash cards with reporters’ names and prearranged questions and answers, read from a teleprompter, or prerecorded (and who knows how many flubs were left on the cutting-room floor?). It’s all a facade.

Historian Victor Davis Hanson has compared Biden’s condition to the last days of Leonid Brezhnev, the Soviet Communist leader who died in 1982. Long before Brezhnev died, he was physically and mentally disabled and propped up by continual lies and propaganda about how he was in good health and in command. That artifice and wall of lies are exactly what we are encountering in the case of Biden today.

Late Sunday night, Biden gave an Oval Office speech in reaction to the Trump shooting and referred to the last president as “former Trump” and made repeated references to the “battle box” instead of the ballot box.

Biden topped this off by almost saying, “Make America Great Again,” before catching himself in mid-sentence and pivoting away from the MAGA Republican mantra. It was a pathetic performance in tightly controlled circumstances.

Biden is beyond functioning capably in the real world of politics, foreign crises and ongoing wars, let alone a political campaign.

A Coup d’Etat in America

Who’s really in charge at the White House? It depends on the issue. When it comes to high-level policy, it’s the Obama team including holdovers like Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan and Obama flunkies on the sidelines like Susan Rice and Victoria Nuland. When it comes to technical matters that are part of the progressive agenda, the deep-state swamp creatures in the bureaucracy are in charge.

But where the presidential campaign and Biden’s determination to remain a candidate are concerned, power rests with a small cabal. The members of this inner circle are “Taco” Jill

Biden, the convicted felon Hunter Biden, Joe’s sister Valerie Biden Owens, and a few close aides including Mike Donilon, Steve Ricchetti, Bruce Reed, Anthony Bernal and Annie Tomasini.

Donilon is the brother of Obama’s national security adviser Tom Donilon. Bruce Reed is an old hand from the Clinton administration. Bernal and Tomasini are close aides to Jill Biden and are practically an extension of the Biden Crime Family. Ricchetti is a lawyer and one of Joe Biden’s longest-serving aides.

That Gang of Eight are the only people with regular access to Joe Biden. They are the ones insisting that he’s staying in the race and issuing the propaganda that says everything is fine with Biden. Even regular White House staff such as Chief of Staff Jeff Zients, former Chief of Staff Ron Klain, adviser Anita Dunn, and Biden’s lawyer Bob Bauer cannot get close to Biden anymore given the encasement established by the Gang of Eight.

Their posture can well be likened to a coup d’etat in America. It’s not violent, but it is real. The Gang of Eight are running the country. Biden is a zombie.

At the same time, another gang of so-called Super Friends of Biden including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi are preparing to tell Biden he must withdraw from the presidential race for the good of the party and endorse Kamala Harris for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The shoot-out between the Gang of Eight and the Super Friends will happen by next weekend. You can think of it as the 1881 Gunfight at the O.K. Corral between the outlaw Clanton and McLaury brothers on one side and Wyatt, Virgil and Morgan Earp and Doc Holliday on the other.

The difference is that the O.K. Corral featured bad guys versus good guys whereas the battle between the Gang and the Super Friends has bad guys on both sides. They’re all looking out for themselves.

Nothing public on the Democratic side will happen this week because the news will be dominated by the Trump shooting and the Republican convention. By Friday, the knives will be out for Biden.

The Democrats’ plan is to nominate Biden and Harris in an all-virtual digital roll call vote in late July ahead of their scheduled Aug. 19 convention in Chicago. This means there will only be 10 days at most between the end of the Republican convention and the Democrats’ virtual roll call. That’s a short window for the Super Friends.

Biden’s Gang of Eight may have successfully run out the clock. We’ll know more next week, but for now it appears the Dems may be going with the zombie candidate for better or worse.

The Biden family may emerge the winner. The American people are most certainly the losers.

 

James G. Rickards is the editor of Strategic Intelligence, Project Prophesy, Crash Speculator, and Gold Speculator. He is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 40 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street. He was the principal negotiator of the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM) by the U.S Federal Reserve in 1998. His clients include institutional investors and government directorates.

His work is regularly featured in the Financial Times, Evening Standard, New York Times, The Telegraph, and Washington Post, and he is frequently a guest on BBC, RTE Irish National Radio, CNN, NPR, CSPAN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and The Wall Street Journal. He has contributed as an advisor on capital markets to the U.S. intelligence community, and at the Office of the Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon. He has also testified before the U.S. House of Representatives about the 2008 financial crisis. 

Rickards is the author of The New Case for Gold (April 2016), and four New York Times best sellers, Currency Wars (2011), The Death of Money (2014), The Road to Ruin(2016), and Aftermath (2019) from Penguin Random House. And his latest book, The New Great Depression was published in January 2021.

 

 

 

 

 

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