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Trump Used 'Emergency Powers' to Impose His Tariffs. Should We be Concerned?
Meet The New Boss, Same as the Old Boss
Why have the markets responded so erratically to Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement? Investors don’t like uncertainty. Uncertainty breeds fear, fear breeds panic, and panic breeds crashing markets. Trump’s sudden imposition of sweeping tariffs triggered the fear that fundamental changes in global trade would produce higher inflation, slower growth, disrupted supplylines, and escalating conflict with America’s trading partners. These are the anticipated outcomes that put investors on edge and sent markets plunging. Trump has tried to allay investor fears by presenting his tariffs as an essential part of his “America First” policy. He is trying to convince his supporters that these new duties will “liberate” working Americans from what-Trump-calls “unfair trade practices.” (In a speech “he compared the tariffs to a declaration of economic independence drawing parallels to other historic US milestones.”) What can we extrapolate from this? First of all, that (in Trump’s mind) the United States has been the victim of abusive treatment by allies and rivals alike. As Trump put it: “They are ripping us off”. This is the basic mindset that energizes Trump’s “Liberation Day” philosophy, a philosophy that the rest of the world should be punished for America’s deficit-generating over-consumption and its $36 trillion ocean of red ink. That is everyone else’s fault, not ours. And mainly it is China’s fault because China opened its country to the voracious American corporations who moved their industries to take advantage of China’s cheap labor. According to Trump, China should be blamed for that as well. The problem with “America First” economic policy, is that other countries are going to defend their own economic interests, too. So, if someone like Trump tries to arbitrarily scrap the current system of international trade and impose his own version, he’s going to encounter stiff opposition. (which he has.) Even so, Trump’s announcement has had a calamitous effect on the global financial system triggering a convulsive flight from US Treasuries. This, in turn, has prompted many analysts to speculate that Trump’s trade war will fundamentally change the manner in which international trade is conducted. That, of course, has set off more alarms while ratchetting up investor anxiety to new highs. Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishhnan summed it up like this:
He’s right, isn’t he? The era of integrated markets in a globalized system is over. The world is being redivided into warring blocs by an administration that believes that the country that borrows and consumes more than any other country in the history of mankind is being unfairly exploited by low paid workers around the planet. The idea is laughable. To fully grasp the extent to which Trump’s underlying theory depends on the belief that “They are ripping us off”, we’ve excerpted this short clip from a post by Arnaud Bertrand commenting on a speech by Trump’s Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Steve Miran:
WTF? So, Miran thinks that overconsumption and deficit-spending is so indispensable to the global economic system, that other countries should pay the US to continue its shameless freeloading? Indeed, that is his position. And the belief is not limited to Miran either. In fact, this is the ideological cornerstone upon which Trump’s trade philosophy rests. ‘We will spend; you will pay. We will take; you will give. We will rule, you will follow.” Get the picture? Oh—and just to add insult to injury—we also regard ourselves as the ‘victim’ in this relationship. (“They’re ripping us off.”) It boggles the mind. Trump’s whole scattershot approach to international trade speaks to this unbounded arrogance. And that appears to be the driving force behind “Liberation Day”, the immutable belief that the rest of the world exists only to serve US interests. Am I wrong? I am not wrong. Just look at the markets. Investors are voting with their feet. They’re headed for the exits. Their panic is a referendum on Trump’s trade policies. This is not a “financial crisis”. This is a “tariff-induced run on US risk assets” that is attributable to one man alone: Donald Trump. No one else caused this. Trump’s signature economic program (reciprocal tariffs) is based on the wrongheaded view that the rest of the world is supposed to function as America’s personal ATM. But investors don’t ascribe to this belief; they think the tariffs are going to trigger a firesale of US financial assets and crash the market. And that’s what the plummeting Treasuries market is telling us, too. This is from an article at Politico:
The situation is dire which is why Trump threw in the towel and lifted the tariffs on 90 countries excluding China. His plan to use tariffs as a means of inflicting pain on trading partners was derailed by an unexpected flight from US debt that he never saw that coming. The incident speaks to the supreme importance of US Treasuries in the global system. The $28 trillion Treasuries market—which is the most liquid and well-capitalized market in the world—plays a special role in the global economy. The yields on the 10-year and 2-year notes, serve as a benchmark for pricing other financial instruments worldwide, including corporate bonds, mortgages, and loans. When Treasury yields rise or fall, they influence borrowing costs globally. In other words, U.S. Treasury yields “set the tone for global monetary conditions”, and when the market becomes volatile—as it has following Trump’s tariffs fiasco—everything goes haywire. It’s no overstatement to say the US Treasuries market is the cornerstone upon which western-style Capitalism rests and any cracks that appear in that foundation are likely to have catastrophic impact on the world economy. That is why Trump gave-way quickly and eased the policy on everyone but China. As for China, the country is now effectively under a US embargo that has been imposed willy-nilly without congressional approval and in clear violation of WTO rules. Here’s a short blurb from Grok:
It’s also worth noting that the countries that Trump has imposed tariffs on are being asked to align with U.S. national security goals. This is an issue that the media has failed to cover in any detail, but the implication is that the administration is using economic coercion to enlist an anti-China coalition that will join the United States in its efforts to sanction, isolate and encircle the PRC. Also, “Trump has invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify his tariffs, including those announced as part of his “Liberation Day” policy and earlier actions. According to Grok:
Question—Has Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to avoid getting congressional approval for his trade policy?
Question—Does Congress have the legal authority to oversee the imposition of tariffs?
Last question for Grok: What do we call a political leader who usurps Congress’s legitimate constitutional authority and accrues all state power to himself?
I blame Congress as much as Trump but—however you look at it—we’re in uncharted waters.
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