Green Hydrogen Hype Fizzles as Implementation Lags
Haley Zaremba

Over the past decade, countries and private enterprises around the world have made ambitious goals and pledges to expand the production and use of green hydrogen in their operations. These targets come as a part of broader clean energy transition efforts, as green hydrogen could be a critical component of any feasible pathway to meeting global climate goals. Since hydrogen can be combusted at high heats like fossil fuels, it can help to decarbonize hard-to-abate industries like steel making and shipping. 

When hydrogen is burned, instead of emitting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses, it leaves behind nothing but water vapor. This makes it an enormously useful fuel source for a wide range of industrial applications, with potentially massive implications for global greenhouse gas emissions. “Replacing the fossil fuels now used in furnaces that reach 1,500 degrees Celsius (2,732 degrees Fahrenheit) with hydrogen gas could make a big dent in the 20% of global carbon dioxide emissions that now come from industry,” Bloomberg Green wrote in a 2021 report titled “Why Hydrogen Is the Hottest Thing in Green Energy.”

But so far, despite the industry’s lofty promises, the global green hydrogen hype has not materialized into tangible results. 

A new study reveals that in 2023, less than a tenth of planned green hydrogen was actually carried out. “Tracking 190 projects over 3 years, we identify a wide 2023 implementation gap with only 7% of global capacity announcements finished on schedule,” reads the abstract of the paper, “The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap”, published this month in the scientific journal Nature Energy.

The study finds that on the whole, the world is getting closer to actually committing to a pathway to capping global warming to  1.5 °C over pre-industrial average temperatures, but while the ‘ambition gap’ is shrinking, implementation has to follow suit. And so far, that’s not happening. 

The paper authors identify three primary reasons for the green hydrogen implementation gap. First is that green hydrogen is expensive to produce, and costs are on the rise. Second is a lack of offtake agreements, possibly due to industry anxieties about “the risk of becoming locked into an expensive and potentially scarce energy carrier.” Third, robust policy measures are needed to de-risk investment in green hydrogen. 

A major finding of the study was that green hydrogen ambitions have failed in large part because they are not sufficiently funded or subsidized. “We estimate that, without carbon pricing, realizing all these projects would require global subsidies of US$1.3 trillion (US$0.8–2.6 trillion range), far exceeding announced subsidies,” the paper states. “Given past and future implementation gaps, policymakers must prepare for prolonged green hydrogen scarcity.”

Green hydrogen, by definition, must be produced using emissions-free energy like wind or solar power. Gray hydrogen, which is cheaper and much more abundant in industrial applications, is created using fossil fuels. Some also distinguish hydrogen produced with natural gas, calling it blue hydrogen, as a supposedly less emissions-intensive stepping stone between gray and green hydrogen.

Not only is green hydrogen by far the most expensive form of hydrogen, it also might not even be that great for decarbonization in the big picture. According to some experts, diverting renewable energy to create green hydrogen may not be the best or most efficient use of these resources. In fact, diverting too much green energy toward hydrogen production could actually slow down the decarbonization movement as a whole. A 2022 report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) warned against the “indiscriminate use of hydrogen.” Policy-makers should instead weigh their priorities carefully and consider that extensive use of green hydrogen “may not be in line with the requirements of a decarbonised world.” 

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com 

 

 

Haley Zaremba is a writer and journalist based in Mexico City. She has extensive experience writing and editing environmental features, travel pieces, local news in the Bay Area, and music/culture reviews.

 

 

 

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